In the last two or three weeks in Belarus, the most relevant political subjects are, first, suddenly a loud marches past “parasites”, with the result that the government was forced to suspend the offensive Decree No. 3, and secondly, the ongoing conflict with Russia. The second story we analyzed in detail in the recent review of the blogosphere “Lukashenko launched the scenario of the Maidan, and he knows it“.
Belorussische for the first story, despite the disproportionately large number of analysts on the subject, in our opinion, it is too early to say anything definite for the first part of “Marlezonskogo ballet.” Yet we have only “the run on the ruble” (no questions, few expected such a protest activity from Belarusian citizens, especially in the provinces), but whether similar protest “a blow to the ruble, not a penny” — we can only assess the results of the protests on 15 and 25 March.However, in addition to the relatively clear and open to most observers of the Belarusian subjects in the Republic continues to spin and a more complex plot that is associated with a sharp aggravation of confrontation between Pro-Western and Pro-Lukashenko groups in power. And I think he’s in charge. So somehow, as it goes further promotion of the marches “parasites”, how it will be resolved in Minsk, the conflict with Moscow — will there be Belarus in the Union state with Russia and the Eurasian economic Union or will take, for example, in GUAM, the next summit which is at the level of heads of governments held on March 27 in Kiev, depends solely upon which of the two groups — Pro-Western prolukashenka or wins in the environment of Lukashenko.
In this regard, I think it is essential the level of development of this plot that the very existence of such groups in the country, finally openly acknowledged by our ideological opponents, which they very vigorously and stubbornly resisted six months ago, since the very recognition of the existence of different factions in the government would confirm the truth of my assumptions about what the successor to Lukashenko in the form of the head of the Pro-Western factions in power — the head of the Belarusian foreign Minister Vladimir Makei is actually ready to begin his duties in his new post.
It is this fact — the reluctance to admit the presence of gangs, surrounded by Alexander Lukashenko were due to the sharpness of our discussion with Alexei Zemanta in August 2016 on the pages of news Agency REGNUM, on the side which then made nearly all the Pro-Western media of the Republic:
“As for zealously defending Makei, the Belarusian Pro-Western opposition media, that what is happening is very similar to the whole information network, which is very clearly and easily revealed itself under very simple circumstances. In this regard, when seven (!) of the eight most popular Pro-Western opposition and antilukashenka Internet resources and the two main state information media — one TV, and the second printing — in the face of their leaders are to protect one official, solely with a smile, perceived the arguments of some experts writing on headed by Alexei Jermantown online that “group Mackay”, which overstrains the sheep — fiction. There is no evidence that it exists at all”.
Vladimir Makei.See2me.gianulis shows that the situation is just the opposite. And if control “group Mackay” on opposition media much surprise doesn’t cause some hosts, so that really there to hide, that is the degree of control over the state media shows that the clan of Alexander Lukashenko in the field of information controls the situation, not much. But for the fact that the author has introduced the Belarusian science the turnover of “group Mackay” (which I, incidentally, was not — was “expert group”), the author, who apparently in my youth and inexperience, just slip on the conversations of elders, we must say a special thank you — now it is, what you can safely write with reference to Andrew Lazutkina, and “grub” is not necessary”.That is, six months ago for the Pro-Western factions in power it was dangerous to designate itself as a centre of decision-making under Lukashenka, so they carefully mimic ordinary campaigners. But on the days its open public “attack” on Belarusian security forces, they still found themselves in the public space, so the argument that “group Mackay” does not exist, — does not work: it is, and leads to a Pro-Western Belarusian opposition and antilukashenka media is very powerful information campaign to intimidate Lukashenko. Not only the Maidan, and law enforcers (!), which is only one and protection from him.
I will give only two examples. Start the campaign by hitting on the Belarusian security services gave for the custom of leading a propaganda mouthpiece of the group of Mackay — Center for strategic and foreign policy studies, trusted to articulate the most complex mnogohodovki CIA:
“After the return of A. Lukashenko in Sochi to Belarus common measures in its policies, such as the suspension of the decree announcing an open dialogue with society, declared at the meeting on 9 March 2017, were accompanied by opposite signals and measures related to the intensification of repression by the state and intimidation of the population. This lack of a clear strategic vision and a consistent public line of conduct shows, probably, that of A. Lukashenko is trying to combine the natural and only true in the current situation, the steps for de-escalation of tension with the strengthening of the role of the power resource.
Judging by a number of signs, this behavior of the first person is due to his blatant misinformation about the nature of what is happening in the country. In particular, as evidenced by the broadcast of the Republican mass media (“Special report” March 6, 2017, “the Main air” on 12 March 2017), as well as the statements of A. Lukashenko (meeting March 9, 2017), a group of security forces to impose his view on the alleged ongoing active management of the impact of social protests on the part of the persons residing in Ukraine”.
What is interesting in this passage. First, under the common steps of Lukashenka, meaning “an open dialogue with society.” What is open dialogue with society in the conditions of active involvement of the West in the dialogue — all well seen in 2014 in Ukraine and the fate of Yanukovych, who, instead of crushing the independence of his in the Bud, bought into the slogans about “dialogue”. When the West speaks of “dialogue” (or on his behalf, says one or the other group is surrounded by a leader of any country), in fact he talks about the ways to surrender power — and so it was with the USSR, so it was with Yanukovich.
That is, advocates of Mackay offered Lukashenka to go the way of Yanukovych. Accordingly, their role in this “chorus” is extremely clear — group Mackay is currently surrounded by Lukashenko exactly the same place, which was occupied in the winter of 2014 surrounded by Yanukovych grouping of the head of administration Levochkin, which, in fact, initially led a double game under the leadership of US intelligence and ultimately passed his boss in strict compliance with their obligations.
Luke.Alexander Gorbachov (c) IA REGNUMВо second, the Centre’s experts have concluded Lukashenka “the lack of a clear strategic vision and a consistent public line of conduct” in the current situation, which indicates the presence in the environment different groups — what we talked about six months ago, and what then fiercely resisted the propagandists of Mackay at all levels.And thirdly, experts Makiivka center is very rude and unproven (from an analytical point of view) substitute those who, in their opinion, is behind these contradictory actions of Lukashenka. In their opinion, it is the security forces that not only that, put him misinformation, so also “to impose his view on the alleged ongoing active management of the impact of social protests on the part of the persons residing in Ukraine”.
In fact, in this text there is only two questions. First, when someone says that a certain group, in this case, a group of Belarusian security forces, engaged in active management of the impact on the head of state, on behalf of a grouping of it? Secondly, what happened such that the group Makei decided to designate themselves as a group, albeit not explicitly, speaking about his opponents, but nonetheless going, therefore, out of the shadows?
The answer to the first question, we, again, gives the Ukrainian situation and the analysis of the processes that occur in the environment of Yanukovych among supporting security forces and Pro-Western group in his entourage, who only pretended that he supports Yanukovych, and in fact it passed with giblets. Chronicle of the Ukrainian Maidan perfectly shows that if Yanukovych does not lose its security forces and gave them the command to disperse the Maidan is still at the stage when it started (similar to the leaders of China, who similarly suppressed at the time its independence on Tangerine), today it quietly would be sitting in Kiev. However, because of their insufficient education for political activity at this level and the desire to outwit all, he betrayed his security forces and came under the active management of the impact of Pro-Western groups in their environment, which initially was aimed at the property.
What we see in the country? What Mackay has strongly advocated the deepening of the dialogue with the West, they say, only he can save the Republic from “Russian takeover”, and, for example, his partner in the fight against “Russian aggression” Pavel Yakubovich not only almost ideologically merged with the Pro-Western opposition on a range of issues — from Kurapaty and marches parasites, creating a unified information front with “Belarusian partisan” and “Nasha Niva” — the worst critics of Alexander Lukashenko, but asks very symbolic forgiveness from the Pro-Western activists that looks at the background of the unfolding conflict between the government and the Pro-Western opposition is very ambiguous… Pavel Izotovich is preparing once again, as in 1994, to defect to the camp of winners and senators have defected?
Thus, on the first question, we see that the situation in the Republic is almost mirror repeats Ukrainian with Belarusian specifics related to the struggle of clans and groups in the environment of the leader is in a much more informal format than in Ukraine.
Radicals Kyiv Midnote to the second question lies in the fact that the group Makei began to see the first signs of defeat of his lines in vnutripolostnoe combat grouping security officials and decided to enlist media support (which she has by orders of magnitude stronger than the security forces, which today is not even state-run media in order) from their information resources in order to provide the desired impact on Lukashenko.
In this regard, noteworthy is the following passage Carica and Savickogo: “Given to A. Lukashenko information by the intelligence services on the basis of which the critical situation with key decisions concerning national security, is in the nature of outright disinformation and logical pushes the first person to commit further grave political mistakes”. The fact that the coordination of all Belarusian special services assistant President of Belarus for national security Viktor Lukashenko. Accordingly, blaming the security forces that they are engaged in gross misinformation of the President, in fact, they blame not so much the heads of law enforcement agencies of the Republic, how the eldest son of Alexander Lukashenko, thus driving a wedge into their relationship and trying to match against Viktor Lukashenko’s distrust of the President.
This idea again brings us back to six months ago, the situation in the summer of 2016, when the pages of IA REGNUM in the article “Belarus: the elite have already chosen a successor for Lukashenka” and “Why in Minsk forgot about Lukashenko? Error or…” it was a subject represented by the opposition of Vladimir Makei and Viktor Lukashenko as two potentially different scenarios for the development of the country. But if then the propaganda Chicks nest Makei with this thesis fiercely argued, but today they, in fact, but only in its perverted form, as all they do is repeat.
Thus, six months ago, we were right in principle, estimates of the main balance of power in the elites of the Republic. Today, they actually literally confirmed by our opponents. Moreover. That more or less science-like trying to squeeze from the finger propagandists Mackay, a much more brutal voice on the website “Belarusian partisan”, in fact, the current Director of this website is journalist Dmitry Galko, known for its connections with neobanderovskoy junta in Ukraine:
“Lukashenko is now pushing for a repeat of December 2010 — that is, to the brutal dispersal of protests and the destruction of civil society structures. Which of course will lead to curtailment of liberalization, will make impossible the further rapprochement with the West and again turn Belarus into the international pariah, firmly tied to Russia.
The President is willing to make reasonable steps and make concessions in the current situation, in order to reduce social tensions. But there is some force that leads him in the opposite direction, slipping the fake danger in the form of a “Ukrainian scenario”. And this power is entrenched in the power unit.
Power is not monolithic, it is quite obvious. There are “ostrokonechniki and big-endian”, that is supporters of loosening the nuts and tightening their supporters, those who support the moderate Pro-Western views, and those who are immoderate support Russia, those who love the form of the NKVD, and those who condemn Stalin’s repressions. They whisper to the President different things in the ears from both sides, so he rushes chaotically. In my opinion, rushing here can not be and not be. Only concessions are only dialogue, only an end to repression, release all the arrested and the continuation of “perestroika”. An attempt to repeat the scenario of the December 2010 this time could escalate into the Romanian scenario. With the subsequent hybrid aggression is already under the scenario of Donbass”.
Thus, his text Galko confirms the thesis Carica and Savickogo, and that, in Lukashenka’s Pro-Western acting group. But if it is, then doubt is, who is its leader, then absolutely not, and that its objectives — the removal of Lukashenka from power — answers “perestroika”. What ended the “perestroika” of Gorbachev and for Yanukovych to remind not worth it.
It is also important to note that, in fact, tough anti-Lukashenka Galko and primatesta years and sivitsky said the same thing. A logical question arises — does this bunch does not see Lukashenko?Yuri Little Sheep