© AP Olivier Hoslet, Pool Photo via AP In a systemic crisis of modern Western civilization came about twenty years ago. Then it was not too late to implement reforms that would make the transition to the “beautiful new world” in a sparing mode.But in those blessed times you do not even argue about the possibility of the collapse of the Western political and economic model — just looked with pity on the child who does not understand the obvious thing: the sun of the West will last forever. Ten years ago the crisis was in full swing, the reform hopelessly late and easy way to exit it was not forthcoming. The majority of experts were willing to argue about the crisis of the West. Almost all of them claimed that we are dealing with a serious, but transient disturbances, and political, economic and financial structures of the West sufficiently reliable in order to survive this crisis and emerge renewed, like a Phoenix from the ashes. In the last two or three years, few dared to deny the existence of a systemic crisis of the Western model. There are still many optimists who believe that the West, the crisis will survive, but sober voices, indicating that the collapse of the West is not a matter of principle, and time (already had it, you have only to admit) more.His last, not an obvious opportunity to escape the West misses, sabotaging reforms trump. They missed fifteen years. Not the fact that they allow soft landing of the United States and save the world from the worst economic disaster in its history. But the reforms trump’s at least some chance. As an experimental medicine that offer the patient with end-stage cancer — if does not help, it will not be worse (still die), and suddenly save. However, the American left-liberal globalists, turning the Democratic party into its political movement and trying to establish in the United States of a totalitarian dictatorship of tolerance, ready to commit any crime, to keep the power in their hands. Twice in the last three years, they put US on the brink of civil war and is now cheerfully marching to the brink, for the third time.
Thus, a systemic crisis created by the US global political and economic model caused (as its components) acute internal political crisis in the United States. In turn, the American political crisis began to have a devastating impact on global policy. The U.S. is losing the ability to perform the functions of a world policeman faster than anyone else will be able to replace them. Russia and China taking responsibility for certain strategic regions (Southeast Asia, middle East). But at the same time to replace the US around the world, they are not yet able. Meanwhile, the systemic crisis surely generates new local crises that nobody can extinguish.In such cases, in politics as in business, concentrated on the salvation of strategic assets (based on which, it will be possible to quickly restore the global order), secondary same (garbage) assets are simply discarded. Whereas previously they had to choose (Pro stock, buying in good times, stocks of unprofitable companies because of the artificial high capitalization), now a hefty political assets all tend to give up.
This, by the way, noticed the time and announced George Soros — the ideologist and one of the founders of a dying system, leaving in the past with her. He is very old and will soon cease to please us with their assessments of reality (by the way, extremely accurate, causing as the enemy it doubly dangerous).But there is a thing Soros said. I’m afraid he doesn’t even know about one more nuance of distinguishing politics from business, for he is first and foremost a businessman. If the trash business asset can not affect his fate in politics in the majority of cases only on the specific leaders of a particular state depends on whether they will be considered as junk asset or would be very popular. A simple example. In 2013, Ukraine was used though, but still quite attractive partner. Russia without hesitation was willing to invest in saving her $ 15 billion loans and 15 billion of investment in joint projects (in the sphere of military-industrial complex and infrastructure). In the same year Syria was buried, that Assad will hold out almost no one believed, arguing only about whether he will survive or will repeat the fate of Gaddafi.
It’s been 6 years and all have turned 180 degrees. Now Syria is an influential player in the middle East, and from Ukraine shy away like the pesthouse, even former allies. Of course, Assad received Russian support, but, let me remind you that Ukraine, such support has been allocated for a year and a half before, just Yanukovych and his company are unable to take advantage of her, betraying each other and surrendering the country to the Nazis, when independence is lost and its leaders were preparing to flee or go to jail.
But replacing Yanukovich Nazi-oligarchic regime (initially, Poroshenko, and now Kolomoisky) initially relied on strong support from the West, trying to play the Ukraine in its confrontation with Russia. To weaken this support began only in the spring of 2016, and finally disappeared by the beginning of 2017. But even then, in the case of sound policies, this support could be, at least partially, back.
Some illusions, the West has experienced, even after the election of President Zelensky. Probably just didn’t want to recognize the full devastating failure of its policy in the Ukrainian direction. After all, in principle, European and American politicians — people are not stupid, the main thing is experienced. They know that the oligarchs themselves rarely become presidents (Gerald Ford and Donald trump is the exception rather than the rule). But the oligarchs employ presidents, Ministers, deputies of the people are literate, experienced, able to efficiently perform their duties. The election of President meaningless doll suggests that the oligarchs are going fast to finish off the country and to place the responsibility on the person who will have to “turn off the lights in Borispol”.
For this purpose just the President who does not understand what he does not realize the extent of their responsibility, absolutely not (even if he has such a desire) to seize the levers of government and to govern themselves. But the Ukrainian oligarchs not only this President was elected, he and the Cabinet have appointed the same, and the same majority in Parliament resulted.
They say that fools are better controlled. No, better manageable just smart, they can negotiate, but fools unpredictable. The fools, however, and more conflict than their intelligent and experienced colleagues. They do not understand the danger of conflict among the ruling group. In fact now we see how one after another to inflame conflicts among the “servants of the people” and attempted to join them “Podpomogov” (like the “disappointed” group Portnov). Mass coming into power of such helpless “new faces” was to show the West that the country is doomed. When are you going to bankrupt the company, there are also often old seasoned managers give place top managers of “young talents” (who then bears responsibility for what happened).
Again, the West did not immediately believe that Ukraine condemn the slaughter of her own home. For some time he was waiting for Zelensky and his team to meaningful action. Indicator there were two: the implementation of the Minsk agreements and to reach agreement with Russia on gas transit. The logic of the West was simple: if the Minsk agreements begin to be implemented, then peace will come and Ukraine has no reason to scream that she was attacked by Russia, so there is no reason to abandon direct gas purchases, and to arrange dances with transit.
It is clear that in the whole history of Europe (especially Germany) were more concerned about rhythmic delivery of necessary volumes of Russian gas. It is cheaper than any other entering the European market, and thus increases the competitiveness of the European economy. In conditions of deepening systemic crisis is very important. The implementation of the Minsk agreements, the EU was interested in first, as an indication that the gas agreement will also be reached, as well, as the reason for the lifting of sanctions that harm the European economy tens of billions of dollars (such losses during the crisis also should be avoided).
That is, the movement of Ukraine towards implementation of Minsk considered in the West as a measure of the adequacy of the new government, in fact execute these agreements, having complete control over all branches of government, simple.
But the behavior of the Ukrainian delegation in the contact group, repeated statements of the foreign Ministry and Zelensky, in which each denied the previous one, the necessity to the President of Germany Steinmeier personally assure Zelensky, that “the formula Steinmeier” he came up with (Steinmeier), and not Putin, quickly showed the European leaders that the adequacy of the Ukrainian authorities can not hope. Kiev is clearly not going to do a single step to get out of the quagmire into which he himself had wandered.
In turn, scientists have discovered that Kiev is not going to help him in exposing the corruption and fraud of the Democrats in the Ukraine. Zelensky himself can not do anything and it can, at best, the blind use. Kolomoisky is waiting for the opportunity to bargain at that time as the criminal case against him in the United States are investigated, the courts in America and Britain, and he apparently will lose his property imposed by the arrests, and he becomes a restricted outside Ukraine. Here it is necessary not to bargain, and to agree to any terms, but he (Kolomoysky) does not want to miss even the smallest penny, and for her sake risks everything. So far, neither Zelensky nor Kolomoisky not ready to cooperate with trump, other Ukrainian politicians act as God put per capita. Since the majority fosterling of the Democrats and Soros, then they play against trump.
And finally, the “Gazprom” company, which not so long ago said: “What’s good for Gazprom is good for Russia.” Ukraine bothering stupid claims on tens of billions of dollars. Money will never get, but blood to drink a lot, and the losses applied (braking projects, legal expenses, which in such cases number in the millions, and then tens of millions of dollars).In General, a “junk asset” decided to stay “junk asset” and even took it for a decisive struggle. For six years, Ukraine, starting from the stage when all were ready to cooperate with it and even invest money in it, quickly passed the stage of indifference and boldly dived into the stage where she’s not just useless, but all her uncomfortable. The thought “I wish it was not” so plainly read on the faces of Western leaders that the Ukrainian experts (with full biography of the Maidan and Pro-European views) started talking about the end of “project Ukraine”, and not in the distant future, but now.
The danger from the outside for Kiev is not that someone will attack the Ukraine or destroy it. It just finally quit to save from itself, and with the destruction of the Ukrainian state no one has ever done it better than Ukrainian patriots. In the conditions of crisis not to charity, forced to treat a patient, regularly trying to bite the doctor, no one will. In this sense, the Ukraine, perhaps, really have achieved the greatest diplomatic victories — a consensus of its irrelevance, of harm and even danger to others brought together all the leading global players.Rostislav Ishchenko