About the rating Zelensky – without rose-colored glasses

О рейтинге Зеленского – без розовых очков

On the streets of the Ukrainian opposition party: the Zelensky collapsed rating! And not just collapsed, and by as much as 20% – from 73 to 53. This news with reference to the November poll by KIIS in every way to relish the media Poroshenko. This topic thoughtfully, the experts comment on the Medvedchuk channels. These figures are staggering in the briefings emerged from the post-election hibernation Yulia Tymoshenko. Even a grant of “the Voice” gleefully rubbing their hands, blaming the decline of the rating “the influence of Kolomoisky” discrediting the reforms of the new government. At the same tune was saudelli and some Russian experts insisting that there is nothing to do in the Ukrainian direction is not necessary, everything is there, they say, will collapse itself – you just have to wait.

So what is it all about it that stated the sociologists, does it make sense to worry about power and will it be beneficial for its numerous adversaries?
There is every reason to say that at the moment the talk about a decline in the rating Zelensky, at least, premature. In the first place, draws attention to the fact that overlook the enthusiastic witnesses “collapse Zelensky”.Namely, the niche nature of the dissatisfaction with the new government. The most negative responses and confidence in the fact that the country is not there – among voters of the two parties located on the extreme flanks of the Ukrainian political spectrum – “European solidarity” Poroshenko and “Applatform For life” Medvedchuk. Together is slightly more than 20% of voters. Among the rest of Ukrainians – first of all, most voted for Zelensky and “Servants”, frustration and negativity at times less. Dominates the willingness to “give a chance to implement the declared policy” to wait for the results.

About the same mood and captures the most recent study group “Rating” announced on November 28. According to him, “Almost two-thirds of respondents believe that the President Zelensky need time from one to three years to demonstrate quality and efficiency”. 14% – give it five years or more. Only 8% require a change in six months.Itoga in brief, the figures: as it did not want another hot opponents see mass dissatisfaction with his policies – it is an aberration and not a real fact. And added to Facebook dill – storm in a teacup, issued for the Typhoon on a national scale.

Clear evidence something as feeble protests against the land market, collecting from a half to three thousand participants, and at least a small stock of the “war party” vs “surrender” – up to 10 thousand participants, half of which is paid for by the organizers.

That said, at the same time, does not mean that Ukrainians have no reason for dissatisfaction with the government. Not at all. Reason enough. But most of them are either “niche”, that is interesting enough to a small circle of people and thus have low national capacity for mobilization, or a down – on decisions not yet taken, the negative effects which people will experience in a long while, regaining their power boomerang discontent and falling ratings.

The most obvious examples of this kind – the notorious sale of agricultural land, the budget 2020 and the draft Labor code that permits to dismiss pregnant women. Something from the list adopted on first reading, something just developed, something accepted finally, but will take effect only with the new year, and all together it is not real Ukrainians and their future.
The consequences of which are, understandably, not been able to feel in their own skin. Multiple obsasyvanie these topics in the media and intimidation of opposition experts can give a certain effect, but very slight, because of the isolation of the horror stories from real life here and now.

Finally, the main manipulation in the interpretation of the numbers themselves.

The fact that talk about the collapse ratings usually start from the notorious 73 %, as from a certain threshold of numbers. Meanwhile, this is a mistake.

73% is not a ranking Zelensky, is the result of the second round of the presidential elections, when we, as in less compared to Poroshenko evil, gave the votes of supporters of other candidates and parties.

By itself, the fact that this prohibitive according to Ukrainian standards, the level of support lasted for a very long time – right up to the end of October – deserves a separate evaluation and analysis. But that does not negate the above.

So what happened in November with the rating Zelensky? Nothing special – just ended his “electoral affair” with supporters of Appolonov and Tymoshenko. Accordingly, these voters have fallen off from the General array support ze, giving the output recorded by sociologists, the level of support at 53 %.

Again fix: 53 % – not a “collapse of support” is the result of the second round of the presidential election minus the vote of the supporters opsi and Tymoshenko.

In General, a lot or a little – 53% support? Of course, arithmetically it is less than 73%, but still is prohibitively high level of support for the Ukrainian presidency.

Poroshenko received on your odnoralova start in 2014, 52% support after six months was only 20 %.

So, if to speak objectively, with all lower digits today Zelensky – one of the most popular leaders in the CIS countries. It is more popular in their countries only but father Lukashenko and Putin, had in the October support level of 65% of Russians.

The same Rules, with which Ukraine is so like to compare Zelensky and supporters and opponents, the current rating of two times less – only 29 %.
The consequences of which are, understandably, not been able to feel in their own skin. Multiple obsasyvanie these topics in the media and intimidation of opposition experts can give a certain effect, but very slight, because of the isolation of the horror stories from real life here and now.

Finally, the main manipulation in the interpretation of the numbers themselves.

The fact that talk about the collapse ratings usually start from the notorious 73 %, as from a certain threshold of numbers. Meanwhile, this is a mistake.

73% is not a ranking Zelensky, is the result of the second round of the presidential elections, when we, as in less compared to Poroshenko evil, gave the votes of supporters of other candidates and parties.

By itself, the fact that this prohibitive according to Ukrainian standards, the level of support lasted for a very long time – right up to the end of October – deserves a separate evaluation and analysis. But that does not negate the above.

So what happened in November with the rating Zelensky? Nothing special – just ended his “electoral affair” with supporters of Appolonov and Tymoshenko. Accordingly, these voters have fallen off from the General array support ze, giving the output recorded by sociologists, the level of support at 53 %.

Again fix: 53 % – not a “collapse of support” is the result of the second round of the presidential election minus the vote of the supporters opsi and Tymoshenko.

In General, a lot or a little – 53% support? Of course, arithmetically it is less than 73%, but still is prohibitively high level of support for the Ukrainian presidency.

Poroshenko received on your odnoralova start in 2014, 52% support after six months was only 20 %.

So, if to speak objectively, with all lower digits today Zelensky – one of the most popular leaders in the CIS countries. It is more popular in their countries only but father Lukashenko and Putin, had in the October support level of 65% of Russians.

The same Rules, with which Ukraine is so like to compare Zelensky and supporters and opponents, the current rating of two times less – only 29 %.
And now – important political insights. And the first one is: how long can all this last? In fact, you do no one now would say. Too unexpected factor for the Ukrainian policy was the emergence of Zelensky who confused the cards to literally everyone.

This effect of “Jack-the-box” has given rise to conspiracy theories about backroom srezhissirovannyj the reign of see. However, despite the naivety of Ukrainians to go in this matter following the conspiracy – so does not respect the voters. You can just make a conservative assumption about the reef, waiting for the power Zelensky. They are almost the same as that of the Bolsheviks a hundred years ago. It is primarily the issue of the world, it is the question of land and is restoring order in the country, the return of the state monopoly on violence.

If the government will cope with these tasks the ratings can go back even at the same exorbitant amount. Not right – the frustration would be tantamount to issued the credit.

In any case, it is a natural process of disappointment, not artificial birth in political technology incubator, outstanding on-mountain fabricated and far from the everyday needs of the electorate the scandals and conflicts.

Roughly speaking, in the Donbass will be peace, and Poroshenko is in prison, the voters will be interested in whom, and through which the application orders the Deputy Yaremenko. There will be no peace, and Poroshenko will continue to destabilize the situation – then the formal reason for total disappointment can be anything – even something very small.

The opposition has the illusion that the power ratings fall in proportion to the number of the seamy side, pouring on the power from the TV screens. Therefore, if the power ratings do not drop as quickly as I would like, so govnomety not doing a good job: you need to pour more seamy side and compromising. But this is a mistake.

Voters may be gullible, but he is not a fool. The same channels Medvedchuk, they really work well and efficiently. But – just for your audience. Ukraine is enough unconsciou: from 13 to 18 % of voters. As channels Poroshenko can not jump higher than their ceiling.

The main problem of all antise propaganda that it is tuned as the rhetoric and content under a narrow group of radical supporters of the Maidan and radical nationalist views. All together the radicals in Ukraine is not over one fifth of the electorate.

And ordinary townsfolk antise propaganda can not offer anything. Because exploits the ideological theme that the man in the street is uninteresting.

Zelensky same holds largely because in the current environment, it exclusively occupies a niche of the political center and attracts those who are equally alien rhetoric as Medvedchuk, and Poroshenko. In fact, this is the same narrow-minded Ukraine, which prefers a show of “95 Kvartal” and Host, and Newsvine with 112-m taken together.

The power ratings, if you begin to fall significantly, then only the synchronous manifestation of the real negative consequences of the policy. And, as noted above, not yet. The hryvnia strengthened to a historical high over the last four years, prices are not rising as fast as before, wages in dollar terms have almost returned to pre-Maidan level of mass reductions is still more to say on television than they spend in practice is for the layman a much more important marker than the arguments of experts that the foreigners buy up the land.

And finally, perhaps the most important factor limiting the collapse of power ratings. Today’s “new faces” there is simply no adequate replacement. The opposition is now waste resource management – the very people who over the last three decades so fed up with people that they were willing to replace anyone, and even if wedding photographers. Oppose the “public servants” those against whom people voted for “Servants”.
And with regard to the forces that exploit Pro-Russian agenda’, and all we are witnessing an attempt at an exorbitant price to sell the voters such a second-hand, and on the head not nalazit.

This is the open secret, which, in fact, have ze and keeps rating despite all the failures, punctures and broken promises. In Ukraine it is banal over the people, which you can choose instead of “new faces” even if new faces start to show weakness and ineptitude, as they do now.

If the opposition really wants to change the current government, it is in the first place is to deal with authority, and ourselves. And to start – with a lantern to look, but to find those for whom the Ukrainians are not ashamed to cast a vote.Sergei Ustinov

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