About Ukraine, gas, and conspiracy theories: is there a plan “B” from Gazprom?

Про Украину, газ и теорию заговоров: есть ли план «Б» у Газпрома?

Recently in the Internet appeared interesting video. In this well-known Russian economist Mikhail Delyagin makes a very loud statement — they say, Gazprom refuses to negotiate with Ukraine “before gaining sanity”.

It then caused extensive debate, mostly confined to counter-question: what relation this person has to Russian oil and gas corporations to do this? Mr. Miller anything like that ever said? No? So, all this is nonsense and propaganda. However, if you look at the details, there is one interesting conspiracy theory.

At the moment the gas conflict between Kiev and Moscow really exists. Russia actually originated some calendar implementation gap of two of its gas projects. It was thought that by the end of 2019 will be able to complete the second thread “Northern stream” on the Baltic sea and the second line of the “Turkish stream” on the Black sea. To finish — that is, to fully connect them to the CTA of the European Union and to allow the gas to Europe.

However, because of the resistance of “our foreign partners,” period of availability of them moved at least until the spring of 2020. Because of this, Gazprom supply in the EU formed hole in the amount of approximately 60 billion cubic meters of gas, which Kiev has decided to squeeze out money to the maximum. Realizing that the train is leaving and that the Ukrainian GTS will lose all meaning, “Naftogaz” is trying to come immediately with three aces.

First, to be concluded for fixed terms of not less than a ten-year contract guaranteeing a profit no less than $ 3 billion a year. Two variants: or the scheme “take or pay” for transit rate of 1.5−2 times higher than the current or no commitment in volume, but the rate of 3-4,6 times more expensive.

Secondly, again try to shake out the “old debt over the past years”. Since the alleged uncollected 11-14 billion dollars for the past contract due to a “manifestly unfair pricing”. “Naftogaz” announced the filing of another lawsuit in the Stockholm arbitration.

Over the last five years different claims against Gazprom to Ukraine filed in the amount of more than 43 billion dollars, of which to a positive decision was only 4.5 billion But, based on it, the authorities are trying to achieve different blocking solutions throughout Europe. For example, the court of Luxembourg at the request of “Naftogaz” seized the accounts of the SPV-company GazAsia Capital S. A., which has issued Eurobonds of Gazprom in Japanese yen.

The same attempt made in Switzerland, the Netherlands, UK and Luxembourg. As a rule, they all eventually contested by the defendant and cancelled by authorities. That is, to shake out any money does not work, but hope its somehow to achieve the Kiev leaves.

And indeed, a number of persons, like the head of “Naftogaz” Andrei KOBOLEV and openly talk about their principled unwillingness to conclude with the “occupier” any contract. The final consequences of such a step was not interested. Importantly, if Miller doesn’t want to get hurt by the bad COP, he should immediately accept all the conditions are good.

Namely, to give money. Approximately 40-50 billion dollars, of which about half from the rest of the parts for ten years, but not less than 3 billion a year.

Conditions for Moscow, obviously, unacceptable. But Kiev there either. Cessation of gas transit from Russia not only deprives Ukraine’s GDP from 3% of the current volume, it greatly reduces the volume available to the Central government money, due to which Kiev did still manage to keep Ukraine from territorial and political disintegration. So it is with these requirements Gazprom went for broke. All or nothing.

The latest round of Ministerial talks on gas has completely failed. Following a meeting at the Ministerial level, the European Commission has appointed on Tuesday, November 19. And it seems that at least Delyagin to Gazprom and is not relevant, as Miller himself “never said”, in fact just had the place sound real Russian ultimatum. Or Ukraine is taken for the mind and restores the adequacy, or, since you want to fight then we will fight.

Especially that “plan B” Alexei Borisovich is ready since the summer. In mid-August in Rotterdam came floating regasification terminal “Marshal Vasilevskiy”. Officially — for the gas supply to the Kaliningrad region, but if need be, through it in the GTS of the European Union it is possible to transfer ships those missing 60 billion cubic meters of gas in the form of LNG.

No, he regasification terminal “Marshal Vasilevskiy”, of course, small. Its capacity is only 3.7 billion cubic meters a year. But such court, if necessary, Gazprom will easily zapoteet else. Of course, this will cause some technical difficulties and will reduce the profitability of higher operating costs, but the result will still be many times cheaper than Ukrainian hotelok.

But all this, of course, is pure conspiracy theory.alex-leshy

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