Advance: will give you the Makron the Balkans in the hands of Russia and China?

Advance: отдаст ли Макрон Балканы в руки России и Китая?

16 years ago, when neither Slovenia nor Croatia was not included in the European Union (Slovenia became a member in 2004 and Croatia in 2013), Greece held a summit of the countries of the European Union and the so-called Western Balkans. There all participants stated that “the future of the Balkans into the European Union”. At the time, so it seemed, and this statement was not made with figs in your pocket. The only thing expected from the Balkan countries was that they will “freshen up” and in good “shape” (and also ready-to-business) will become members of the European Union.The alternative? It was not, or perhaps it emerged only in the long term. “The East” as such as a powerful analogue to the West and was not mentioned. Russia was just starting to recover from the “shock therapy” of the 90-ies. Vladimir Putin has come to power, but at the time it was still considered an important Western ally on whom you can count on. China, in turn, the “silent and worked”, creating a economic mega-force that only recently has loudly declared itself. In 2003, no one seriously thought on how to choose China instead of the European Union.As all of what is written above, has changed since then! All the talk about “the future of the Balkans in the European Union” ended after the accession of Croatia. So the Western Balkans was in fact further divided into two parts: “Western-the Western Balkans and Eastern-Western Balkans”. All who are to the East of Croatia, I buried my head in the door of the European strategy, which pretty much changed, and the new inexorable “porter” became the French President Emmanuel macron. At the end of last month, he vetoed the accession of Macedonia and Northern Albania to the European Union (and indeed the further expansion of the European Union). At the level of the whole European Union there is no necessary consensus on this issue, but we all know that if such decision was made by a country like France (and if her vision for the future the EU will support Germany), then to do nothing.Very bad news for those who built his political career in the Balkans, intending to carry out reforms, which in the end, according to the agreement, would be rewarded by accession to the EU. These people, such as Macedonian Prime Minister Zoran Zaev, now doomed to a crushing political defeat, as nothing they are not capable of. Zaev himself called for early elections, which, apparently, loses, and then returned to power, his right-wing competitors.Of course, this is not the only consequence of the decision of the Makron, closed the door to the EU. Balkan countries that have not joined the European Union, will remain “no man’s land” in the broadest geopolitical sense, as they are, from an ideological point of view, unprofitable.As I said, the world for the last 15 years pretty much changed (and that change, that is, the strengthening of Russia and China, continues at the same pace), and then the Balkan States outside of the European Union, will be forced to look for other partners.These countries can in some sense be compared with the Syrian Kurdish fighters. They cooperate for many years with Western powers, particularly the United States. However, at a time when there has been a gap of that cooperation, they willingly and without hesitation sent his representatives to Moscow and Damascus. And not because they passionately want it (clear that it is not), but because they simply have to. They need the cooperation and protection of at least one strengths, as without it you’ll just become cannon fodder for the enemy (in this case, for the Turkish troops and Pro-Turkish militants).The same can be said about countries such as Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, Albania and Northern Macedonia. They still some time will be knocking on the door of the European Union, but, realizing that for them it is closed, will soon send its delegates, according to the plan B in Moscow and Beijing.If by some miracle the door of the European Union still open, these countries will immediately rush there (again, similarities with the Syrian Kurds, who return again and again to the Americans on the first call, forgetting the ones he abandoned them to their fate).In his time the Kurds maintained relations with Damascus and Moscow (even at the same time cooperating with the United States) and these Balkan countries have already started a temporary partnership with “power B” to simplify your life in the case that the scenario presented by Emmanuel Macron, will be implemented.Recently Serbia was the main goal of China’s financial investment in this region of Europe. But in neighbouring Bosnia and Herzegovina, China made a unique largest investment since the wars of 90 years, building huge thermal power station in Tuzla (this project was of great concern to citizens in connection with the impact of the TPP on the environment and human health). As for Montenegro, there is a Chinese company build the highway cost a half billion US dollars.Russia and China embody a growing East. They operate in tandem, and their role for some time now clearly divided. China “builds” and not interfere in politics, while Russia is engaged in a just policy, and, above all, energy. Coordination between Moscow and Beijing actually exist, and they need each other because together we can seize this new market. For example, Russia pays more attention to strengthening of political influence in these countries, and China supports its aspirations, knowing that Russia is thereby eases the way to his investment.Chinese and Russian investments are attractive for several reasons, and one of them, of course, is that they come without any conditions. Which is not true of the European Union. He was presenting to potential new members (until they want to see in the structure) of the exceptionally high requirements concerning human rights, elimination of corruption, based on the fact that all this is necessary for the prosperity of the business.China looks at all this very differently. Corruption? Human rights? What is the difference, if there is a good deal. In fact, the EU and China are exploiting these countries, but the philosophy of accession to the EU is very different.Of course, Russia and China are not the only option that remains when the EU slams the door. There’s always the United States. So the question arises: closing the door to the EU for whom the rules actually opens the Balkan doors? For Russia, China or perhaps the US? It is no secret that the last time him and the US President Donald trump agree on increasing the number of questions (unlike trump and Merkel, between which from the beginning has developed a cool relationship that will eventually become colder). Recently, macron said that NATO is undergoing a “clinical death”, and even though the US is the leading country of the Alliance (Americans for many decades used it as a tool of its own foreign policy), it’s probably a statement like Trump. After all, whether his will, he generally would get rid of NATO, for operations in different parts of the world it is enough of the slogan “God bless America!” and he does not need cover in the form of the transatlantic coalition.Someone thinks that the solution to the Macron to refuse further expansion of the European Union gives US a chance to act immediately and easily increase its influence in the Balkans. Of course, the Balkan countries can attempt again to play the card of “non-aligned”, but today such schemes truereality. Although in reality if successful it would be the best option.If the EU would retreat from the Balkans, where today is the strongest influence thanks to the largest trading volume, therefore, will officially start the race for influence in the Balkans. It can enter the United States on the one hand and Russia and China on the other. Interested in trump? Perhaps it’s not even so important, as American strategy in the Balkans realized he had not, and those people who have long been here and are considering this option for many years, if not decades.But in connection with the hypothetical “turning to the Balkans,” trump there is one problem. To keep the Balkans to Western interests, he, first, had to persuade Him not to close the doors of the European Union. Because, ultimately, EU accession and economic development all countries want. The United States can’t offer the Balkan countries (unless radically, very radically change their foreign policy, and that won’t happen). Estran will ask of Him (a request he doesn’t like) to continue the expansion of the European Union (the trump doesn’t like)? Sounds implausible.On the other hand, it is unlikely that the United States on the silver platter presented to several European States, the powers of the East, as now the United States is actively fighting for the preservation of influence even in the less attractive regions of the world.And what is the Makron? Why does he suddenly oppose further enlargement of the European Union? From a formal point of view, macron said: “I am against”. He only said that he wants to renegotiate the terms of accession to the European Union. However, “translated” it actually means that he is against, as the creation of additional bureaucratic obstacles — is not that other, as attempt to keep the Balkan countries at a constant distance from the European Union, but not to deprive them of the hope of ever becoming part of a club (similar tactics were used against Turkey for several decades, and now we see what it led to).The reason macron opposed to the expansion of the European Union, is actually quite prosaic. We are not talking about some large-scale strategy of the French leader who wants to position itself as a leading leader of Europe. He is against the extension because it strongly opposed the extension speaks French public. But amid protests of the yellow jackets, the fire, which fades, but continues to smolder, Makron decided that it was better not to contradict the French voters.All these facts determined the fate of the Balkans. Countries that are left at the door of the European Union, must understand that, like what faces a similar situation. The most useful advice to them, despite the events very closely monitor the preservation of peace and stability at home. After all, if someone decides that a significant part of the Balkans need to be part of a geopolitical camp, he will hit it on these supports.

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