Amazing Syrian paradox

Удивительный сирийский парадокс

Let’s use the forbidden technique. Will put aside all the statements, political campaigns, personal characteristics and “credit history” the Syrian conflict. And “sterile” look at what is happening there now from the point of view of actions key players.They operate smoothly. The United States, realizing the long-stated purpose of the White house, decided to stop presence in Syria, because I believe their mission there (the defeat of the terrorist pseudo-state) is performed. This puts at risk the Kurdish troops who helped the Americans to carry out the mission, but the Kurds were only situational partners. A long-term partner in the area, Turkey, with which relations are complex, but there are long-standing ties within NATO.Turkey its security interest associated with the weakening of the influence of Kurdish militias along its borders, Washington is actually went towards the longtime ally. And effort (the visit of the Vice President’s Pens), and situational ally had the opportunity to minimize the damage.The most important extra-regional player at the moment – Russia is recognized by all. Without reaching an understanding with her, right there do not. Aware of this in Turkey, a military operation is possible to the extent to which it threatens to clash with Syrian government troops and their supporting Moscow. Aware of this in the United States – not to let the Genie out of the bottle that is fraught with the risk of the spread of repressed radical Islamists, it is necessary to allow the Syrian and Russian units take control of the vacated infrastructure. Is the communication between the military representatives of the United States and Russia, the political representatives of Turkey and Russia. Produced by a certain algorithm. Most likely it’s not aligned to the small details, but reflects the General contours of the action. This avoids direct interaction, but refers to a mutually acceptable “red lines”.In the end, manages to go from a head-on conflict of interest. Turkey receives tacit nod of the two great powers in the security zone, although strictly speaking it is illegal. US out of this game, because I don’t think its important, to save face (kind of). Damascus spreads the area of jurisdiction for the segment of the uncontrolled territory. The Kurds enter into bargaining on the conditions of coexistence with the Assad government, almost accepting it in exchange for a cover. Russia confirms its role as main regulator and guarantor of, and expanding military capabilities. Are prerequisites for the following attempts to outline a new Syria.This is a perfect picture. This is assuming that everyone is acting rationally and prudently. Now open brackets and bring back what made.First of all agreeing in the literal sense, rather, it occurs in fact. The US position is extremely controversial, as the solution to trump’s resignation from Syria denied a large part of its political community. It affected the electoral base (the refusal to support the Kurds have caused resentment Christian fundamentalist, one of the pillars of tranism), and the image of America, so the White house started to play up. The trump characteristic of jerks. The degree of interaction with Turkey are not clear – she is given the “green light”, then turn “red”.In a relationship a lot of emotions and accumulated grievances that absolutely does not contribute to the judgment. Between Putin and Erdogan, the situation is simpler, the experience of dealing with force majeure richer, but there is no tension not enough – Turkey is conducting an invasion of the sovereign territory of Syria, which perhaps today is “the lesser evil”, but contrary to the basic Russian principles. And indeed great is the risk that the fighting does get out of control and will spread. There is a very restrained position of Iran, which the activity of Turkey don’t like because it undermines the already fragile status quo. The Kurds feel surrounded by enemies (however, they are not used) and may behave abruptly.In General, the situation turns out to be very ambivalent. On the one hand, what is happening is not contrary to logic and, in certain circumstances, may even create more favorable conditions for settlement. Moreover, it is noteworthy that the interaction of the main players (USA, Russia) is not built on mutual trust and not on the coincidence of interests (neither one nor the other is not), and the rational understanding that the interests of each it is impossible to realize without contact with the other two. On the other hand, there is increasing emotional and propagandistic glow, the hostages of which can be any reasonable or at least reasoned intentions. Public discourse puts pressure on Erdogan, on trump and Putin. Not casually in the West sounded the chorus of comments that Russia is the winner, it all depends, it all turns, etc. trump and the other was deliberately trying to provoke a desire to “catch up” triumphal Moscow, and ideally to put her in her place.In Syria, another decisive moment, the stakes are high. And here the main thing – good nerves and very cold calculation.

Share