© AP Photo / Richard Drew
The media in the West these days actively discuss and retell the latest article ray Dalio is a talented investor, managing assets of $ 150 billion. Mr. Dalio is known for his thorough approach: it relies not on blind luck, and the careful study of history, which, in his opinion, repeated over and over again.Born in an ordinary family, ray Dalio was able to understand how the markets and become a very rich man. Now, in his opinion, the West is entering another cycle suffering zero interest rates for almost poisoned the economy, soon the value of shares, property and other assets will start to fall apart.Personally, I’m inclined to trust the judgment of Mr. Dalio: not only because I read his books and agree with his logic, but because in my memory still alive too experience the “blessed” of the nineties. Sergei Mavrodi very convincingly told us what to do money out of thin air — this is normal and that we don’t have to understand exactly how “MMM” is going to profit from the investment. Now exactly the same thing we broadcast to the Western high-tech corporations: what to work for years at a loss is the norm and that while the stock price grows, investors have to worry completely about.In reality, rightly observes ray Dalio in his article, the system is already bursting at the seams. The Central banks of Western countries excitedly print money, trying to keep the sinking economy afloat, but the money ends up in the pockets of the super-rich without any benefit for the budget and the real economy. Title of the article (it’s in English) speaks for itself: “the World has gone mad, the system is broken”.To break the parasitic circuit, sending the money to the real business, it is impossible. Attempts to impose the super-tax only lead to the fact that they’re taking their wealth offshore. In the end, the authorities of the West must now continue your journey into the abyss: the stick POP (policy of negative interest rates) but to print money to pay public sector wages. Every week at the warehouse of ammunition of the coming crisis brought several echelons of explosives. The fuses are already smoldering with tens of parties. When they explode — a question of time, and time is short, because this summer, the U.S. economy set a record, showing the longest rise in history.Because the laws of Economics has not been canceled, because the trees do not grow to the heavens, and because each a period of growth followed by a period of decline, now every month can with high probability be for the US economy turning. The same is true for the economies of other Western countries, as they are tied to the United States economy is very tight, and for China’s economy, for which the United States are very important trading partner. It stands apart, perhaps, only the Russian economy, sanctions due to friendly our American friends have had time over the past five years to sail from this squadron of bombers in the distance of a cannon shot.Nothing new, Mr Dalio says: “Kremlin propaganda” says the same thing for ten years, and about a year or two ago to our friendly choir began one by one to join the most eminent Western investors and bankers. The disaster is inevitable, as it is based on very simple mathematical calculations. For example, the Western retirees in the mass — rant: they keep accumulating in pension funds and live on the interest. Now interest rates are close to zero, sometimes even negative. To place money at interest is no longer possible. Pensioners have nothing to live on: they can either go into debt or spend all savings, or risk investing money in the trash assets.No need to be a doctor of Economics to understand these calculations. The difference between 2019 and 2009, only that the big Western media of these arguments were dismissed as conspiracy, and now the same thing is repeated the most well-known and respected in financial circles person, and therefore, Willy-nilly, to look out the window and flinch at the sight of an approaching hurricane.
The most interesting thing about the speech of Mr. Dalio — how to understand her we have, in Russia. Journalists write that capitalism no longer works and the availability of money for the rich is “the cause of poverty of most people.”In this distorted understanding of the problem there are three serious mistakes.First, ray Dalio talks about the economy of the West with near-zero interest rates. In Russia, bankers and politicians on the left also tried to push Elvira Nabiullina at the low stakes, but did not succeed: the rate of CBR is currently 6.5%, which is on the fact that neither is a healthy capitalist level. Our capitalism works.Secondly, if we carefully examine the social ladder in the West, step after step, we find that broken stage are pretty high. Poor people have food, clothing and shelter. They have access to medicine tolerable and what no education. Purposeful comes from the poorest immigrant families could, without spending a cent, to thirty or forty years in higher education, get a decent job and afford to buy a house. He will have to spend these thirty years of hard studying, austerity and hard work, but also in Europe and in the US, the result is almost guaranteed: getting into the lower middle class.The problems begin later, when our hero tries to save money to obtain capital income. He soon finds that the stock prices are wildly inflated because of the super-rich have unlimited access to money and they can afford to buy shares at inflated many times the price. This is the very point at which the upward movement is very difficult: when our hero already has a good job, a house with a lawn and car, but not yet ten million dollars in stock that he could afford on the pension is different excesses.Finally, the main message of the articles — “the rich as a cause of poverty” — the strongest way discourages readers. We live in Russia, in the land of opportunity. When 50 years we have seen the poster that the Soviet people have reached so-and-so and so-and-so, the message was clear: I, too, Soviet man, like I can go on courses of welder, get a plant, make the country nuclear-powered icebreakers, etc., while earning good money for myself. Now when we read that the cause of poverty — the rich, the message is different: you, dear reader, is not to blame, sit on the couch and relax. You have been robbed by the unknown rich people, change anything. Write in the comments what they are rascals, and open a new bottle of beer.And courses of welders don’t go in any case — it is useless.Oleg Makarenko