Breeding forces: does Zelensky meeting “channel four”?

Разведение сил: хочет ли Зеленский встречи «нормандской четверки»?

Vladimir Zelensky and Jens Stoltenberg: “How do you like the soup?”. Illustration: 988.livejournal.comGold has been a breeding force. Some supporters of President Vladimir Zelensky, however, as people who believe in “first world” on both sides of the front, began to write in social networks, to declare in the media that Zelensky has finally shown the strength of the nationalists, that he has shown political will and that ending the war is not far off. However, on 4 November, Ukraine has disrupted the breeding troops near the village Petrovsky. Moreover, the Ukrainian side used the already familiar argument: there were seven days of silence.

In General, it is clear that this argument is of Kiev is not more than “excuse”, the Ukrainian side, based on their reasons, do not want to carry out a breeding force. And what is interesting: on the morning of October 29 the headquarters of the so-called DUS said that there was a shooting in the Golden. But this day began breeding troops, and about some “attacks” forgotten. And the same staff of the OOS made a statement dezavuiruya first, that the silence was observed all week. It looks undignified and even ridiculous, but for Ukraine it has become the norm — the same officials or agencies first say one thing and then contradict themselves. When they “fire” the best, they are no where, comes the break.When Petro Poroshenko more than a hundred times frustrated breeding in the Village of Lugansk, and the argument was the same — shoot. The caveat is that if Kiev need in any area of silence was not, it will not. Enough from Kiev to give the secret order weessies to shoot, and then blame the militia of Donbass.

But the question may arise. If Zelenski and his team wish a speedy meeting in the “Normandy format” as you claim, then why do they artificially delay the dilution of forces in Petrovsky? As already shown by the example of Gold, when there is the political will of the official Kiev, APU depart from their positions, even though the presence of nationalists. So maybe Zelensky and his entourage do not want the meeting in the “Normandy format”, it is like trying to show? In the end, Zelensky — specialist in organising various shows. And this his experience, he moved into politics, one of his meeting with journalists in Burger mode hours of “conveyor” was worth.

Actually it was a political spectacle of pure water, and let Zelensky were not so well made, this fact does not change. And so the question arises, not whether he is now a show called “I am for peace” primarily for Western politicians and partly for their own voters, who voted for Vladimir Alexandrovich with confidence that he would stop the war? Maybe Zelensky and his team have now realized that the meeting in Paris no political preferences he will not bring, but on the contrary, can give new impetus to the protests of “no surrender”? And this will happen if, for example, Zelensky will sign a joint Declaration of the Quartet, where are the points that are not like radicals. And there they will be.

In addition, as shown by recent history, negotiations at any level — to put it mildly, a weakness of the President Zelensky. So, when dealing with radical Denis from “National corps” in Gold, he showed that he’s completely missing the composure and tact, and his words “I’m 42 years old, I’m not some goof” already became winged. During the meeting Zelensky with Jens Stoltenberg , the incident happened. The NATO Secretary General at joint press conference forgot about the President of Ukraine and gave him the floor, announcing the closing of the event. You should have seen the stunned face of Mr President, it was written all the emotions — surprise, helplessness… Plus the Network spread photo, where Zelensky is actually attention before sitting Stoltenberg, like Batman in front of the Marshal. Of course, these facts demonstrate that Zelensky is a bad negotiator. So, at negotiations in Paris, he will be in the position of the novice who sat down to play preference with professionals.In addition, initially it is clear that he will get bad cards. Zelensky has repeatedly said that the channel wants the meeting to bargain for Ukraine the best conditions compared to the “Minsk-2”. Judging by the statements made by the members of his team, they don’t like that the Donbass according to the Minsk agreement, have the right to have its own police, to participate in shaping the law enforcement and judicial systems in the region. Kiev does not want to enshrine a special status in the Constitution. But Russian officials have repeatedly stated that any compromise is possible only in the framework of already signed agreements and Ukraine, and so made a lot of concessions, so it is doubtful that the negotiations Zelensky will get what they want.

Also in light of the current global trends, when the U.S. political crisis in the West fear the rise of China and its Alliance with Russia, in particular, is afraid the French leader Emmanuel macron, when Denmark has enabled the construction of “Nord stream-2”, the position of Ukraine at negotiations a priori weak. It turns out that the objective of the meeting in Paris Zelensky as a policy is not needed. If in August-September, he could expect that the meeting “Norman Quartet” will be a demonstration that the mighty leaders of the East and the West recognize it as equal that it will reinforce its authority within the country, after the beginning of the protests nationalists this meeting for Zelensky even dangerous. His political opponents in Ukraine are now using any excuse to accuse Zelensky zrade (the betrayal). So, any word during the meeting “Norman format” with the nationalists to be used against him. And it is a threat to the government Zelensky.

All the talk about the fact that, after a divorce forces in Gold, the President of pan showed the nationalists, who is the boss, far from reality. First, the radical left in Gold. Second, they do not even hide that they have the weapons they stashed somewhere. Third, the Ukrainian deputies from the party Zelensky in unison stood up for the regiment “Azov”, which the U.S. Congress called neo-Nazis, and Ukrainian diplomats have been ordered to conduct “outreach” work abroad, “Azov” — not the Nazis, and advocates of Ukraine.Therefore, it is unlikely that Zelensky is really ready to tell the radicals “their place”. And the events in Odessa prove it. There the radicals tore off a memorial plaque in honor of Marshal Georgy Zhukov, and he did it publicly, even in violation of the Ukrainian legislation. But the government did not react, no one is punished. Mode Zelensky continues the same policies as the regime Poroshenko. And under this policy various nationalists, neo-Nazis and thugs simply with the right looks, which is hard to classify, above the law, no matter what they did. I think we should pay attention to the words of the head of the Ukrainian interior Ministry Arsen Avakov, said on the day of the breeding of power in Gold:

“Unfortunately, it is unlikely that Ukraine will be able to achieve by negotiation a good peace with the Russians, I don’t believe it”.However, he added that if there was a way that you can go and check back, you should do it without crossing “red lines”. And considering that Avakov is today one of the leaders of the Ukrainian hawks, one of the most powerful people in Ukraine are very closely affiliated with the “Azov” and “National building”, his words can be interpreted, on the one hand, as the resolution Zelensky to withdraw, and on the other as a warning: if you pass the “red line”, will not find it. Anyway Avakov signaled that he does not believe in negotiations.

And that colleagues Zelensky don’t believe in the prospects of future negotiations, according to their statements. So, the Deputy from the faction “servant of the people” Irina Vereschuk said:

If we want to change this “channel format”, then we go to the UN, take a vote and change. But first you need to meet in the Normandy format, to fix his inconsistency, arriving then at the UN, if we are counting on international support, then, perhaps, the troops of the United Nations, the international sanctions”.The head of the “servant of the people” David Arakhamiya noted:

“I support the position that Ukraine has to change the negotiation stance. But first you need to finish with the old format.”And Deputy foreign Minister of Ukraine Vasyl Bodnar, being in Canada, said, “If work in this area (the implementation of the Minsk agreements. — Ed.) is not enough or it fails, then we will go to plan B, in which moves the idea of peacekeeping operation in Donbas in the Ukraine, and then we will ask to participate in Canada as one of our main allies.”All these ideas of Ukrainian deputies and officials, otherwise, how utopian is not called, the more they are not fresh, and was circulating during the time of Petro Poroshenko. More remarkable. Apparently, in Kiev do not believe in “Minsk-2” and it is not going to perform. Just Avakov spoke honestly and more openly than others, because he feels so powerful that no fear of the wrath of Macron.

In the situation at a meeting “Norman Quartet” Zelensky caught between Scylla and Charybdis. On the one hand, it crushed the Paris and Berlin insist that Kiev has fulfilled all conditions for the meeting in Paris. With the other he fears to give new cards to the nationalists, so that they could intensify the protest and raise your “independence” to a new level. Therefore, as in the case of consent to the “formula Steinmeier”, Zelensky will maneuver to the end, to look for clues and reasons to evade from the obligations and from the meeting in Paris.

Sergei Mirkin

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