© AFP 2019 / Tolga Akmenthe less time remains until October 31 — the fateful date on which Prime Minister Boris Johnson has appointed a Brexit, the more interesting it becomes to watch the convulsions of the British political system.Paradoxically, the UK’s exit from the EU is against Russia. Therefore, the sacrifices that Johnson brings on the way to Brexit may be perceived in the future as the effects of Russian influence on British and European politics.
The British Prime Minister already probably have regretted his keynote article in which he announced that a British exit from the European Union, and strictly on 31 October 2019 (and not a day later) would be proof that Vladimir Putin was wrong when he said that Western liberalism has expired. It is very difficult to understand the logic of this statement, but the consequences were very sad. The British leader faces the challenge at any cost to meet this deadline, and the opposition in the British Parliament (and in his own party) he at this quite successfully interfere, that makes the British (once a respectable and serious) political system in a bad mixture of carnival and political talk shows.
The situation in British politics and in the process of Brexit is changing faster than the weather in London. There is no sense now to talk about the details of what happened and the intricacies of parliamentary squabbles between the Prime Minister and the opposition — the more that even British journalists and experts are already completely confused. Many of them explicitly recognize that the situation is unprecedented, and absolutely not clear what to expect from her. However, based on the current situation, it is already possible to draw several conclusions about the current British leadership, his conflict with Putin, the prospects of Western liberalism and the UK.
First, Johnson was a patriot himself and not the UK. Moreover, the British Prime Minister decided to follow the example of Donald trump: if the U.S. leader has “passed” the Kurds in Syria (which is actually considered a kind of American tradition), then Johnson decided to bring the most ardent British patriots, namely British loyalists from Northern Ireland.The crux of the problem: due to Brexit between Northern Ireland and Ireland was supposed to be the so-called tough border customs inspection, border crossing points and so on. The EU (and Ireland itself) was unhappy, as were unhappy, and Northern Irish Catholics, which threatened a revival of the question of Irish unification and out of the UK that looked quite realistic taking into account experience of a bloody confrontation between British loyalists and Irish nationalists in the region.Northern Irish loyalists (whose party, by the way, gave Johnson the necessary votes for a parliamentary majority) quietly refers to the “hard border” with Ireland, but demanded that any deal to exit the EU in any case would not establish a Maritime border with the UK, under the assumption that in the event of such border Northern Ireland will sooner or later be severed from the mother and will join to Ireland that does not promise anything good loyalists.For the transaction of withdrawal from the European Union until October 31 Boris Johnson “cut off” Northern Ireland from the UK. Despite the fact that the document on the output (which at the time of this writing, the Parliament refuses to accept) provided that Northern Ireland is part of great Britain, in practice it provided that Northern Ireland is part of the common customs space of the European Union, the “hard border” with Ireland there, and the sea border with the UK is. In fact, because of this defeatist concessions Northern Irish loyalists, and deprived Johnson of their votes.
The second important conclusion: Johnson is willing to pay the European Union “compensation for divorce”, which causes a burning feeling of national humiliation, many of those who voted for Brexit. Again, in order to catch up to the 31 October, the British Prime Minister went to the most humiliating measure: he agreed with the requirements of Brussels to pay 33 billion pounds (about $ 42 billion) payments to the European budget for forgone due to the release of UK income. Despite the fact that one of the program goals Brexit sounded like “enough to feed the European Union.”But the main conclusion is that Johnson, in fact, deceived the voters, promising them a final Brexit. In fact, even in the unlikely scenario in which “a deal of Johnson” will still be accepted until 31 October, the UK still have many years (judging by similar experiences in South America) trade negotiations with the EU in which the EU can (and, judging by the mood of European politicians, will be) to compel the United Kingdom, which can not live a normal life without open the European market to almost any concessions in terms of compliance with European standards. As well as labor, environmental, and even tax rules. Part of the British voters hoped that after Brexit the UK would become a kind of Singapore-on-Thames, but this will happen only if it will make the European Union. And he has no motives to do free UK successful, but are strongly motivated to make this life free the UK a living hell just so that others who wish to withdraw from the EU was to teach.British The Times writes: “Before us stretch long months of detailed and painstaking negotiations on our future trade relations with the EU. Many people simply do not realize that this next Chapter exists. Lord Cooper, the founder of the company on conducting research on Populus, which regularly conducts focus groups for Brexit, talked about a “critical lack of understanding among many voters who believe that “transaction” in which the deputies argue, not only covers the terms on which we leave the EU, but also the details of our trade relations after we go”. When these focus groups say that Brexit will initiate a longer phase of bargaining and negotiation of trading conditions, the answer is often “silent terror.”
Rearrangement of termsWhen British voters finally realize what they got leading politicians of the country, regardless of party affiliation, most likely, they will agree with the position of the Russian leadership about the deplorable condition of the Foundation of Western political systems.However, Boris Johnson can write off these problems on the machinations of Russian hackers, journalists and spies. To recognize his defeat of the British policy is not accustomed.Ivan Danilov