Bury Minsk. As Zelensky prepare the failure of the adoption of the law on the special status for Donbass

Похоронить Минск. Как у Зеленского готовят срыв принятия закона об особом статусе для Донбасса

At a meeting in the “Normandy format” Zelensky will arrive without the law on the special status of Donbass. Photo: DWbecame known date of the summit “channel four” – on 9 December in Paris. It is noteworthy that confirming the date, Moscow has asked Berlin and Paris to influence Kiev, that he began to perform the Minsk agreement, including its political part.

And yesterday it was reported that the parties came to some agreement. Both from Russia and from the Ukraine reported about the approval of a final document that is approved at the meeting in Paris.

Its content is not precisely known, but from the comments it is clear that one of the Central moments there is a law on the special status of Donbass, which in Russia is called “kraepelini” to the whole peace process.

Meanwhile, action already adopted in 2014, the law on the special status ends on 31 December 2019.

And up to this point you need to either make new or renew old ones.

Ze-team has repeatedly stated that to renew the current one is not going to, and absolutely need a new law.

However, as found Country, take it down to the new year according to the legal procedure would be extremely difficult, and so all the promises on this document that will take Zelensky at the meeting in Pride can be worthless.

It cannot be excluded that the new year will stop the actions of the old law and the new will not be accepted.

In this case, Ukraine is de facto out of the Minsk agreements and the developments in the Donbas can now go on an unpredictable scenario. Moreover, from 1 January 2020 may be interrupted another important agreement on the transit of Russian gas through the territory of our country.

That is, the new year can both terminate in two documents that have somehow govern the relationship between Russia and Ukraine, not letting go of this relationship in the dressing. Consequently, the situation will become very explosive.

That’s going to do with all this Ukrainian government, were dealt with “Country”.

Games with the law

The current law “On special order of local government in certain districts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions” was adopted on 16 September 2014 in the framework of the first Minsk agreements. He suggested the introduction of a special procedure for local government for a period of 3 years for the uncontrolled territories of Donetsk and Lugansk region. But to enter into force the law had only after these territories elections.

According to the law, a special procedure refers to the right of region to participate in the formation of courts and prosecutors, the right to have their own militia groups, to conclude agreements with the regions of Russia, the right to determine the official language, as well as on the contractual relationship with the Ukrainian government.

In October 2017 the validity of the law with a big scandal for the first time was extended for one year. A year later, in October 2018, the law was extended until 31 December 2019.

In early October, Vladimir Zelensky has declared that the Ukrainian authorities have approved the text of the so-called “formula Steinmeier”, which envisages a peaceful settlement in the Donbass through the holding of elections and granting the region a special status.

Then the head of state said that it adopted a new law on the special status. However, after two months of working on this bill do not hear anything.

Only the position, which was announced by the head of the international Affairs Committee of the Rada Bogdan Yaremenko (still not passed through fire, water and copper pipes of the scandal with correspondence with women on call directly in the session hall).

Yaremenko said that the law in its current form is not satisfied. They say, too much of it controversial provisions.

Under the disputed provisions, he understands the key points of this document. Namely, the right of the region to form their own groups of “national militia”, as well as the provisions on Amnesty.

Also, the Ukrainian side insists on the transfer of control of the border before elections and not after, as foreseen by the Minsk agreements. Of course, that Russia is categorically against it.

However, while a far more relevant question is not elections, but the law on the special status. After all, if it does not renew or take a new one, since the new year it will expire and, therefore, the Minsk agreement together with the elections and all the rest will be buried.

The curse of two weeks

Now in Kiev officially declare their position that the project will be written and accepted only after a meeting in Paris. That is, after 9 December.

“To say that have to change in the existing law, you need to understand what result we get from the upcoming meeting of heads of state in the Normandy format. When it will take place, the Council will begin to prepare the bill. Meanwhile, arguments about what will be the new document that is guesswork,” – said in a recent interview with the speaker of Parliament Dmitry Razumkov.

However, these words contain a subtle trick.

The fact that the schedule of the session of the Verkhovna Rada does not give the opportunity to adopt a new law until the new year after 9 December.

In December there will be only 2 weeks – from 3 to 6 December and from 17 to 20 December.

To meet the regulations, the law in the first reading, you need to take 3 to 6 December. And then second, on the accelerated procedure, from 17 to 20 December.

But the assurances of the government that the law will be ready only after Paris (9 Dec) indicate that there is only one plenary week, and without violating the Regulations of the new law to take would be impossible. Even under the shortened procedure need at least a week to pass all the stages in the framework of the Rules.

In such a situation there are two exits.

The output of the first extraordinary meeting

MP Oleksandr Kachur (“servant of the people”), one of the participants of the working group on the preparation of this document, in conversation with the “Country” notes that the basic plan of government is to manage to pass a law before the New year.

“The President may initiate an extraordinary plenary session, if necessary. This can be done on 26 and 27 December that the law entered into force immediately after the expiration of the current law on special status of Donbass”, – says member of the “Country.”

According to him, today even the most basic draft law no. So to pass the Regulations without convening additional meetings will be impossible.

“There are developments, some in the party, but as such text yet. All of these ideas could not be considered a bill, while they were not discussed with the community. We are accused that the laws are written in the Kremlin or somewhere else. No, this bill will be written in the Ukrainian Parliament, it will be written taking into account the views of reputable lawyers, volunteers, experts. It definitely will not be some controversial provisions like the people’s militia. But all this happens after the “Norman meetings”. And then we’ll see what the timing,” says “Country” Kachura.

The output of the second prolongation of the already existing law

The second option is to roll over the current law. And it is possible to do without breaking the Rules Happy in just one meeting.

In “the Servant of the people”, this option is not excluded.

“Of course, it is difficult to predict how events will unfold after the Norman meeting, but we have a few options to address the question on adoption of the law. We can either prolong the current, or make changes to it, or take a new one or not to take any of these options. In any case, I propose to await the results of the meeting in Paris,” says “the Country,” MP Irina Vereschuk.

The new law is the path to the cessation of peace talks

Respondents “Country” experts say that Kiev’s attempts to adopt a new law may finally bury the Minsk process and hope for a peaceful settlement in the Donbas.

Much more correct is the variant with the extension of the current law. Moreover, it is all the partners of Ukraine in the Normandy format is more or less satisfied. Even Russia.

“If you follow the letter of the current law on the special status and just extend it, Zelensky is in a more advantageous position in Ukraine. He can always say to all my opponents and haters that it’s not us, it is your idea and adopted the project. We do not reinvent the wheel. We support what you suggested. Yes, it’s a game, but it is worth it. If they decide to go the route of drafting a new law, there may be much more difficulties. And will they be able to persuade Putin to all of these terms, it is a question,” says “Country,” political analyst Vadim Karasev.

The fact that the Kremlin opposes the adoption of new laws on the special status of Donbass, a few days ago said the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin.

“We hear from the top officials of Ukraine that may be adopted another law on the special status of Donbass. What? This is absolutely crucial. If there was something that was not agreed “LNR” and “DNR”, then everything will instantly come to a standstill”, he said.

The political scientist Ruslan Bortnik tak believes that the delays in the law on the special status of Donbass can lead to the disruption of the peace talks.

“In theory it would be possible to extend the current, and then through a broad debate with society to make something new. Why to Paris do not speak on this subject because I expect to modify the part of the awkward points – elections, Amnesty, directly special status, the timing of the transfer of control of the border. But if this does not happen, the Ukrainian side can go to the actual output of the Minsk agreements. That is, rewrite the law so that he is not satisfied with the DPR/LPR and Russia. And peace negotiations will finally come into profound impasse,” – said Bortnik.

A diplomatic source familiar with the negotiations, said “the Country” that the agreed final document of the meeting of the Normandy does not contain any changes in comparison with the Minsk agreements and with the formula Steinmeier.

“It’s simple – the election, then a special status. The controversial issues of amending the Constitution and transfer of border control to be postponed. That is no new order of implementation of the Minsk agreements there. There is and there will be nothing about the fact that Ukraine is first passed to the control of the border, and therefore have elections. There is not. There is only what is written in the Minsk agreement 2015. So the question now is only one – is the law on the special status. And if the Ukrainian authorities will go the way of the adoption of the new law, then with high probability we can assume that it is until new year make it will be very difficult. Just imagine – Zelensky repeatedly promised to discuss the new law with society. And then after Paris, make it at the last plenary week, are rapidly adopting on first reading, and then a week later appointed an extraordinary meeting, to take the second reading. That is, no real discussion there. People will feel cheated. This is simply a provocation of protests and disrupt them. However, the “public Servants” can cheat and make some kind of law that does not suit Moscow and the separatists. For example – will be removed from there position about the people’s militia, about relations with Russia, about the courts and the Prosecutor’s office. But Russia is not satisfied and then the process just comes to a standstill and the war will continue. With all the ensuing consequences for the rating of the President and his support in society. Therefore, the only correct let be the extension of the existing law,” says the source.Galina Studennikova

Share Button