Calculated-surprised. Why is the cost of the Ukrainian GTS for half a year dropped 100 times?

Подсчитали-удивились. Почему стоимость украинской ГТС за полтора года упала в 100 раз?

© RIA Novosti, stringer every day become more absurd news from the “Naftogaz”. This time they concern the value of “Ukrtransgaz”, that is, Ukraine’s gas transportation system (GTS). It turns out that the price of “pipe” for half a year lost 100 times. In addition to the aging of tangible assets because of falling market prices may be unfulfilled hopes on a consortium with the West.A joint stock company (at) the company published on 21 November adopted the decision of the shareholders — actually, the sole shareholder of the gas transportation operator of Ukraine in the person of JSC “Naftogaz of Ukraine” containing the valuation of the assets of the company: “to Confirm the market value of the assets of the Partnership with a view to their transfer to the Charter capital of a limited liability Partnership “the Operator of the gas transportation system of Ukraine” in the amount of,62 (three billion two hundred nine million seventy-two thousand seventeen, 62) UAH (without VAT) as of 01.10.2019

It is reported that the assessment and determination of the market value of assets at “Ukrtransgaz” did the appraiser capital limited liability Partnership “Ernst & young”.At the current official rate of 3 billion 209 million hryvnia approximately 121.45 million euros.

However, inevitably begs the question. Not so long ago, 12 April 2018, at a similar meeting of shareholders of “Ukrtransgaz” also based on an assessment of “Ernst and young” was also officially adopted the market value of the assets of the company in the amount of 329 billion 921 million 624 thousand 504 hryvnias. The Euro against the hryvnia since then, not much has changed. So just a year and a half of the national gas transmission operator in Ukraine depreciated 100 times?!It is clear that over time, tangible assets are gradually deteriorating and losing their market value. But a hundred times in half a year? Little hard to believe.

Try to look at the situation in a larger time perspective.

8 June 2014, Parliament tabled bill No. 4116 “On amendments to some laws of Ukraine on reforming the management system of the Unified gas transportation system of Ukraine”, the next day is included in the agenda. The goal is to maintain the state’s controlling stake of 51% stake in gas pipeline operator, while the remaining 49% could be purchased by foreigners. On 14 August, the law was passed by the Parliament, and on 8 September, signed by the President.

On the background of these events the head of “Naftogaz of Ukraine” Andriy KOBOLEV said on 23 July 2014 at a briefing in Kiev: “Evaluation of the Ukrainian GTS is in the range of 25 — 35 billion. A large discrepancy, since in such estimates is the question — what the asset earns. This question will determine, to a border — top or bottom is closer to the final figure”.Further Kobolyev gave an example for another under his management company: “At the current price of gas, “Ukrgasdobycha” well, if it costs 1 billion. and if you make a commercial price, then the cost will be more than 10 billion dollars”.

That, in principle, of course. The market price and therefore a market, that it dictates the market, that is the objective consensus between the desire of seller to sell and buyer wish to buy cheaper. Therefore, the cost of “Ukrtransgaz” initially clearly overestimated, hoping to obtain from its partial sale to foreigners more money.

Подсчитали-удивились. Почему стоимость украинской ГТС за полтора года упала в 100 раз?

© utg.will avernes by April 2018, and “Ukrtransgaz” on the part of “Ernst & young”, which already is a certain subjective point of view KOBOLEV or anyone.

The fact that at that time the company had a number of offers from abroad. Just two years ago, I showed that the interest in the Ukrainian GTS was shown by many Western companies — the supply through it is already engaged in the Polish PGNiG and prepared Swiss AOT Energy, interest in joint use of Ukrainian gas transport system after its transfer to the new operator in 2020 showed the Italian Snam S. p.A. and the Slovakian Eustream a.s.

In the end, however, it all came to nothing. As acknowledged by 19 November 2018 Kobelev, “the cost of the Ukrainian GTS is about 14 billion.” (this assessment was previously contained in the correspondence of “Naftogaz” with the government over the sale of a 49% stake in gas transmission operator of Ukraine’s Western counterpart), but willing to buy the share at this price foreign companies in the end was not.

For some time there were hopes for the arrival of the Ukrainian gas market of some Americans, but they were a complete Mirage. In the end, the market price of the assets “Ukrtransgaz” fell again, and this time quite heavily.

In social networks on the sharp, ten-fold, decline in the value of “Ukrtransgaz” responded, explaining that the desire of the new government to sell the GTS to someone of “their”, for example, Kolomoisky, who now, after purchase, for a pittance of gas transmission pipeline will annually put $ 3 billion (for the transit of Russian gas) in your pocket.But this assumption, although not devoid of wit, is actually false. The “Ukrtransgaz” is made in connection with the necessity of selection of the gas transportation system of Naftogaz, the separation, so to speak, of the system for the extraction, transport and transfer to consumers, which involves the so-called Third energy package of the EU, which was signed by Ukraine (actually it only works on EU, but Ukraine is there for the sake of “European umbrella” from Russia, went on to his only candidate associative membership). This is the decision on the division of production and transportation of gas involves the impossibility of selling the GTS to someone else, she will remain in the full conducting state.

Of course, in Ukraine is quite possible. And when the next change of government, may be abolished solely about the state-owned GTS.

So what actually happened with the “Ukrtransgaz”?

But the fact of the matter is that the CTA itself in a few years would be worthless — for $ 30 billion or 120 million. Because the main value of Ukraine’s GTS is not in its pipes and compressor stations, and that it produces — the transit of Russian gas to Europe. When performing the transit functions, this system bring 2 to 3 billion net of cash per year. In the absence of transit is a net loss, because you have to spend money on its maintenance and security. Therefore, a tenfold price drop is due, most likely, is the fact that in the first case, the cost of pipe was estimated with its prospects for the transit, and the second — in the form of scrap metal.

The second fact, which could affect pricing, is that in 2018, the price was the interest of the state, going to foreign investors of the amount countable many zeros. And in the current environment, the same pipe the state of Ukraine does not sell to foreign investors, and as if to himself.

Well, what here “to drive up the price”?Vladislav Maltsev

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