CMC: how Johnson will manage the new majority in Parliament

CMC: как Джонсон распорядится новым большинством в парламенте

Just three years ago the decision of the British to leave the European Union seemed like a leap into the unknown. Now clear and unequivocal support of Breccia looks in the eyes of British society as the only way to stability, allowing Boris Johnson and the Conservative party to take the majority vote and 80 seats — the largest margin since the days of Margaret Thatcher.Bow city and derinputstream that to return to Britain of stability can only be finally completed withdrawal from the EU was so strong that it outweighed even the eccentric reputation of Johnson. Vote for the fragmented opposition warned the tories will lead to more delay with Brexia, and solving real problems just won’t have time. Another thing — to confirm the mandate of the ruling conservatives. Having a comfortable majority in Parliament, they will be able to complete the divorce with the EU and to deal with the internal agenda is to help distressed areas, to invest in health and to fight crime.This approach is not presented vivid surprises, but proved to be effective. The combination of hard lines Bracito and economic populism has allowed Johnson to consolidate voters of skeptics, including among the workers in the centre and the North of England. Support main rivals of the tories for this part of the voters — Party Breccia — fell from 11% in early November to 2% on the election results. New Cavendish, Sedgefield, Bishop Auckland, United Bassetlaw, Grimsby — since 1945, these districts remained under the control of the labour party, and now switched to the tories. The attitude of Bracito have blurred traditional party loyalty, becoming a major political watershed.Played into the hands of Johnson and the weakness of the opposition. Yes, it has a high rating (over 40%), and 59% of Britons, according to polls, do not feel confidence in him. However Johnson proved to be much more popular candidate for the post of Prime Minister (41%) than his main rival — the leader of the labour party Jeremy Corbyn (26%). Especially low voters appreciated the competence of the labour party in matters of the economy (lagging behind the tories by 18 percentage points), Breccia (-18) and national security (-34). Because of the weakness of Corbin and disunity of the opponents of the tories who have taken each other to vote, the opposition were missing the support of many Pro-European constituencies in major cities.In the result, the Conservative party could decide the election challenge that was set before them Brakcet. Rather, one of its main reasons is the deepening of the economic and cultural split between the cities and the provinces. The British right is easier to shift to the left in the economy than left — right in the public agenda and immigration. In this election, Johnson has successfully closed a working capital with the electorate, whose populist adaptation of the system from the top seemed a reasonable price on the background risk of a wave of discontent from below. But the labour party failed to compensate for the loss of support among the workers with the help of new supporters from the middle class.Unfinished revolyutsionerom, victory, Johnson still does not remove the uncertainty around the long-term course of the country. At least in one respect, British politics will remain unchanged: the lion’s share of time and effort the new government will have to go to Pexit.Of course, the victory of the conservatives will allow Johnson to withdraw from the EU by February next year, approving a separation agreement with Brussels without any further delays. But this agreement will resolve the issues — the status of Northern Ireland, the rights of citizens and the size of the British compensation.But key topics: the format of future relations in the economy, foreign policy and other areas of the UK will negotiate with the EU after a formal Breccia, in the second stage of negotiations. They should last until the end of 2020, with a possible extension for another two years. The final agreement will require ratification in the British and European parliaments.Given the scale of the ambitions of Johnson, to successfully carry out these negotiations it will be difficult. For eurosceptics Pexit is the key to the “sovereign of globalization.” It is possible to break free from European restrictions and unleash the state’s hands for a more active role in the economy, which will allow you to help lagging sectors to introduce tougher immigration filter to attract investors with modern infrastructure and competitive conditions. All together this should provide Britain a brand new place in the world economy.The realization of this plan will require broad autonomy from the EU. It’s not just about the exit of the Customs Union and the European single market, but also about the right to determine the regulations in the economy. Already during the election campaign the Prime Minister said that London will introduce new rules of state support of enterprises and workers from the European Union will lose preferences when entering the country.Partner or concurenti it is obvious that such a sharp rupture of relations with the EU are fraught with side effects. Economists estimate that if the Johnson plan is implemented, British GDP per capita in ten years would be 2.3-7% lower than it was when saving the EU. Business lobbyists have warned about the costs faced by British companies in case of de-liberalization of the customs and trade partnership with the EU.Until now, such forecasts do not cause panic. In the end, the status quo in relations between Britain and the EU will continue for at least another year. The growth of British GDP remains stable and, according to forecasts, this year will amount to 1.24% compared to 1.31% in France and 0.6% in Germany. Inflation is kept low (1.7 percent in November in annual terms), real incomes rise (3.6 per cent in September in annual terms), and low interest rates leave the authorities the fiscal space. But the situation may change because of the shock from the rupture of relations with the EU and the probable slowdown in the world economy. In such circumstances, to throw a percent of GDP will be difficult.Moreover, the refusal of the British European standards can pull a revision of relations with a broad spectrum of issues. Danger next door Singapore-on-Thames, which is not considered to be General rules, the concern of the EU. So there’s already threatened to restrict access to Britain’s markets.This London may reply with a refusal of military cooperation with the Europeans, playing the geopolitical card in order to obtain more favorable terms. Who knows what can result such disputes. Possibly the parties will find a way to decouple the economy from a strategic partnership in other areas, but the threat of long-term discord in the relationship remains.Keep coalition a result, even an overwhelming majority in Parliament does not guarantee Johnson a protection from the problems due to the European issue. On the one hand, hard eurosceptics among conservatives will insist on a maximum pressure on the EU. The only way to restore the absolute sovereignty and to close the trade talks by December 2020, as the party promised before the election.On the other hand, moderate conservatives will call on the government to make concessions to the EU and not to rush into negotiations. Why would the British abandon the European model, in which they have invested much effort? Moreover, the economic shock from a too sudden break might are came to the feelings of the opposition.In addition, a traumatic break with Europe could undermine the integrity of the United Kingdom. While the separatist Scottish national party won almost all the parliamentary seats from Scotland, the majority of the inhabitants of the region yet oppose independence (50% to 44%), including for economic reasons. Arranged to feed the British crisis has the potential to add to the popularity of the separatists and to strengthen their position in elections to the Scottish Parliament in 2021. This, in turn, will support their requirement to hold a new referendum on independence.The next five years will be decisive for the Conservative party and, apparently, will lay the Foundation for the relations of Britain with the EU for decades to come. The question is whether Johnson can’t wait to get his new coalition of support to finish the whole thing. If the opposition can find popular replacement of the Corbin (not the most difficult task), and Breaksit will hit the wallets of Britons, it is possible that the current strong advantage conservatives will rapidly melt.

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