© press-service of the President of Ukrainethe Emergence Zelensky in the political arena of Ukraine was unexpected, and the consequences – unpredictable. He has been President for six months, and it remains unclear who he is: an improved version of Poroshenko or degraded copy of itself; an independent figure or a puppet of the oligarchs; the clown on a throne or a serious politician?Ukraine.ru tried to understand the “phenomenon Zelensky”, asking the opinion of a number of leading political experts of Ukraine.
Zelensky and Poroshenko: who is who?
Zelensky was chosen as “Poroshenko” and even as “antipoaching”, but did he really like this?
Pavel Rudyakov academic: “I would not today claim that the General policy with Zelensky something radically different from Poroshenko. The steps of the new government on domestic policy, foreign policy and social circuit, there was no substantial adjustments”.
Andrei Zolotarev direct text says that “system, which remained in the country, — Poroshenko-Lite”, but Zelensky himself from Poroshenko is very different. He’s a man of show business and a rather thick skin Poroshenko, who “was purple to the point that you say”. The new President wants applause, and this is its fundamental difference.
The reasons for the similarity Zelensky explains Poroshenko Volodymyr Fesenko: “He keeps a Pro-Western course of Ukraine. He is a man of liberal views. What he focuses on Hollywood, not on “Mosfilm” — it is very noticeable”. Compared to Poroshenko Zelensky — “moderate center”.
By the way, dear scientist does not see the humor of the situation — oriented Hollywood President of his movies was shot at “Mosfilm”…
In General all agree with Ruslan Bortnik, who recalled that “the first six months, which fell on the same period in 2014, started a deep economic crisis. Yes, Zelensky didn’t fulfill some key promises, but people do not become worse off, as it was during the first six months with Poroshenko.”
However, to be quite honest, the feeling, which is shared Bortnik, rather emotional. Yes, Zelensky many vzdohnyosh easier, but from an objective point of view, the situation over the summer has deteriorated — the prices, in contrast to revenues, continued to grow. Crooked and askew began the heating season in the capital warmly was given on November 1, but shortly surprised the people of Kiev received bills, in which it appeared, that it happened the week before. Of course, problems 2014 it does not seem close, but the grounds for optimism either.
Summary: the majority of the surveyed experts believe that Zelensky is a variation on the theme of “Poroshenko-light”. Yes, it is largely different, but the difference is rather in form than in content. On the other hand, content-the Ukrainian government is fundamentally unchanged for all 28 years of independence…War and peace
The question of the peaceful settlement of the conflict in the Donbas is the key to the modern Ukraine and, accordingly, for the President Zelensky. And all the experts raised the question of settlement of his advantage.
Alexei Yakubina: “If to speak about foreign policy, then there is obvious progress. For six months, he still unfreeze the peace process took place, the dilution of forces, fixed formula “Steinmeier”, repaired the bridge in the village of Lugansk, began direct contacts with the Russian President, will meet in “Norman format”, which is not possible in 2016. All of this can be counted as a small victory.”
Zolotarev: “Poroshenko often talked about the victory, he used that word. Zelensky dominates from the word “peace”.
Bortnik: “it is Difficult to say whether Zelensky world of freezing conflict or victory over the enemy. Potentially both can arrange Zelensky and team. It could be the freezing of the conflict to the extent that he no longer has the military, economic or political risks for the country; and reintegration that Zelensky is probably the most desired option, but on his terms and on the conditions that he makes”.
Fesenko: “He’s rather a pacifist, in my opinion. He doesn’t like the war in its different manifestations. So this cease-fire. But we must remember that it’s not only civil conflict, but the conflict with Russia. Without Russia this conflict in a military uniform would not be at all. That’s why I say that one of the main obstacles to peace is the refusal of Putin to stop the war. (…) But for the most Zelensky is, of course, not the desire to win, to win the war, and the desire to end this war as soon as possible”.
To the opinion of the analyst should be treated with special attention, as the property statements of the President and his entourage, as well as the absence of any movement towards the abolition of the law on de-occupation of Donbass suggest that Zelensky judgment Fesenko generally agrees and sees the cause of the war was the intervention of Russia.
Rudyakov: the purpose of the President is “still a cease-fire and hostilities. That is why the image of victory, which was cultivated with Poroshenko, now a few people Zelensky postponed, although not completely off the agenda has not yet been removed. Still, it is believed that to reintegrate the Donbass need to Kiev and nothing else. So far so hard the Ukrainian leadership are looking to the future dialogue with Moscow and does not accept negotiations with Donetsk and Lugansk”.
Summary: experts applaud efforts by Zelensky for peace, but we incline to the opinion that the most that he will be able to achieve long-term cease-fire (on the restoration of economic ties is not spoken, but is obviously implied).
How independent Zelensky?
Vladimir Zelensky is often called a person dependent on the influence of the people around him, and most experts agree.
Yakubina: “Skladyvaetsja seems that those groups that revolve around Zelensky, just offer him his people, and he seemed to agree. And that should feel the voter Zelensky?”
Zolotarev: “Poroshenko was very difficult to play. Because of its authoritarian and feudal-style Vinnitsa. (…) Zelensky more depends on the team. Sometimes it seems that Zelensky working President in the administration Bogdan”.
Bortnik: “Decisions are made by the President, but the conditions, the inputs do depend on the environment. And today, due to the fact that Zelensky an inexperienced politician, his decisions are highly dependent on the environment and those points that it puts on the President.”
Fesenko: “All allegations that he is someone’s puppet whether Kolomoisky, whether still someone that are not true. But, of course, can affect different people, including immediate environment, on specific issues that relate, I would say, execution tactics, or specification, for example, in the economy where it lacks competence. (…) It is quite a strong Manager, independent person and make decisions for themselves.”
Rudyakov: “Vladimir Zelensky independent in the arrangement, making those or other decisions, researched and prepared by its environment. He is able to bring vivid and spectacular details in the language, the meaning of which produces not him.”
Summary: As you can see, the opinions of experts were divided, but the majority of them still believes that the final decision the President makes himself. About Kolomoisky referred to only one expert, and this is not surprising — it has long been obvious that the notorious dependence of the President from the oligarchs are greatly exaggerated.
Zelensky track Poroshenko, but does it very differently. In any case, the moral situation in the country is quite different. On the other hand, no one expected that he will break with the Pro-Western course of Ukraine is established not Poroshenko. Rather smoothed out the conflicts and contradictions created by the fifth President. But Zelensky has all the ability to just new.
Zelensky wants peace but does not want to negotiate with the Donbas. Experts believe that thus it is possible to negotiate the world. But is it possible so to arrange the return of the Donbass in the Ukraine?
Zelensky independent in making decisions, but are dependent on their environment, as incompetent and has no team.
The inconsistency is obvious.Vasily Stoyakin