If I never miss a electoral debate, I acknowledge that I take more or less pleasure on some evenings. This was the case for the last two, but I’ll be riveted to my screen this evening.
There is first of all a concern that has been recently invited, to forget the disastrous experience of the state of Iowa. Covered with ridicule, the democrats are hoping for a good performance of the six participants.
The dynamic has also changed since the last time. Pete Buttigieg can now claim a status of serious candidate. Even if he does beat very lightly Sanders after the final accounts (is it really?) in Iowa, Mayor Pete can put in front of many supporters, many in rural areas, and all the serious preparation of his team.
Once again, Bernie Sanders is at the top, and it gives already a winner in New Hampshire. Bernie has been very critical of the results in Iowa and is not shy to say that he could be the victim of a ploy doubtful to away from the inauguration. How Sanders will handle the situation during the debate tonight? Evoke dark machinations would serve him well as the campaign of Donald Trump and would contribute further to divide the democrats.
If the performance of Buttigieg and Sanders will be examined with the magnifying glass, you can imagine the burden that weighs on the shoulders of Joe Biden. Favorite since the day he announced his candidacy, he disappoints continually. You can feel the nervousness of his team and her donor. His rating decreases in the polls, his performance in the debates are poor or ordinary and it is miserably crushed in Iowa.
What can we expect for the Andrew Yang, Tom Steyer, Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar? Yang will benefit this evening from one of her last appearances on the big stage. It doesn’t have to be ashamed of his performance and his speech, unconventional, has allowed him to get noticed.
Billionaire Steyer can cling because of its financial resources, but it is expressed too little in the debates. And then, if one has to choose between the billionaires, Steyer may well be a little more progressive, Bloomberg him damera possibly the pawn.
For Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar, there will be a lot at stake during the debate broadcast on ABC. Warren finished in third place in Iowa, but the margin separating it from the two leaders is significant. More worrying for her, Bernie is back in the driver’s seat among the progressives. He climbs in the polls and continues to receive financial contributions at a pace that is very interesting.
The ascent of Pete Buttigieg’s bad news for Amy Klobuchar. Mayor Pete and play on the field of Joe Biden. If Biden stumbles, to who will go to the vote of the centrists within the training policy? Klobuchar is once more condemned to stand out.
Then we will consider the attitude and the declarations of those who will be on the scene, another applicant holds the attention despite his absence. The more the game becomes increasingly complex, it’s hard to choose among the candidates on the stage, and Joe Biden is in trouble, the better are the chances of Bloomberg to appear on the radar of voters.
Bloomberg has staked everything on the first Super Tuesday of march and it does not have to manage the controversy of Iowa. It continues to show up with hundreds of millions invested in advertising. It seems to me still difficult to imagine in the skin of the democratic candidate, but the current situation is so volatile that we cannot rule out this possibility.