Déconfinement: the Quebec economy will suffer until next year

Quebec being hit hard by measures of containment, its gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to experience a decline of 6.9% in 2020, and 5.7% next year.

This is one of the forecasts of Desjardins group, who notes that consumer confidence has fallen more in the Beautiful Province, as well as retail sales.

Last year, Quebec’s economy had grown by 2.7%.

However, according to data from the Institut de la statistique du Québec (ISQ), the real GDP of Quebec at basic prices declined 0.3% in February, following an increase of 0.5% in January, and this, as well because of the pandemic of sars coronavirus as the blockade of the railway aboriginal.

Also, the ISQ expects real GDP to decline by about 2.7% in the first quarter of 2020, according to a preliminary estimate.

With the gradual end of the main measures of containment, Desjardins notes that it will take time for some economic indicators start to rise gently.

“If progress in the face of the disease are evidence, the economy will gradually wake up from its hibernation, precise-t-on. In the contrary case, especially if the pandemic is experiencing a new wave of progress, the constraints on the economy would be continued or replaced. The negative effects on company profits and on the stock Exchanges would be then more important and the risks of a financial crisis would increase.”

In Canada, to Desjardins group economists foresee a decline in real GDP of 6.4% in 2020 and 5.2%, whereas, last year, it had increased by 1.6%.

Among other things, it is estimated that “the return to normal after the pandemic COVID-19 might prove to be more difficult than expected”.




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