Let’s start with the handshake. The event is very small, but significant: in the international conference in Istanbul, Erdogan shook hands with the deputies of the state Duma of the Crimea. It would seem a trifle. But Turkey does not recognize the Russian status of Crimea, accordingly, does not recognize him and elected from the same datacommunicatie Erdogan is the recognition of the official status of state Duma deputies from the Crimea de facto, which, as a rule, prevents the recognition de jure.
The foreign Ministry of Ukraine has said that supposedly, found the Turks: the handshake was an accident, Erdogan did not know who greeted the Turks didn’t know who was in the delegation, etc. I am Sure that Turkish diplomats so and explained the situation Ukrainian. But in the years 2014-2018 this explanation still would have caused in Kiev tantrum. For all his lack of professionalism of Ukrainian diplomats know perfectly well that the receiving party may not be aware of the composition of delegations to international conferences of high level. And the President can’t accidentally bring some people. Negotiation is required as a minimum with security and Protocol. The question of political expediency, the meeting also always discussed. The Turks in these matters traditionally vigilant. Them on a curve goat you will not go round. And Russia would not have to tug at the Istanbul state Duma deputies from the Crimea smuggling. Especially not in the style of Russian diplomacy by deception to be engraved on a handshake (or arrange paid photo session with the President of the United States).But in the new Ukrainian diplomats swallowed this explanation, pretending to believe in coincidence. Realized that a tantrum will only worsen their position in Turkey, Turkey smoothly merges its position on the Ukrainian crisis and do anything. The maximum you can hope to stall for time until full discharge.
What did Kiev diplomats such intelligent? I think the final nail in the coffin of their hopes and scored for the Turkish operation in Syria. After the Russian-Syrian troops, reports of which concentration is in the areas Manuja and Tabka been received, began, by agreement with the Kurds to take a throw Americans site Rozhava in the first couple of days it was still possible illusions about the possible conflict of interests of Moscow and Ankara in the region. But seeing how gently (without haste and anguish) formed the line of demarcation between Assad and Erdogan in Rojava, there is no doubt that the agreement between Moscow and Ankara was reached in advance and was part of an overall plan on the final to oust the United States from Syria (and judging by the results of Putin’s visit to the Gulf countries and the Middle East in General).
Turkey is an active regional player in the middle East. Over the last hundred years it repeatedly changed allies and enemies, but never abandoned their ambitions. Historically, economically, politically, mentally middle East to Turkey several orders of magnitude more important than the hundreds of Krymov with dozens of Ukraine in the bargain. If Erdogan had agreed with Moscow on key issues of the Syrian settlement, and after the competent operation of ousting the Americans from Rozhava not see this can only be a blind man, and in Crimea, the parties will find a common language. So, Ukraine will lose the support of one more “eternal” (as believed in Kiev, forgetting that the eternal God only) ally.Started by Erdogan, “operation Peace spring” has not reached the peak, and we can already see the results:
1. The United States finally leave Syria. While stated about the intention to leave 300 people in the border base near Al-TANF, but it is agony. From the global point of view, the recognition of the United States its defeat in Syria and the middle East in General means admitting defeat in the global confrontation with Russia. This does not mean that in the future confrontation with Washington will not resume. Could the Russia to recover after the defeat of the Soviet Union of the cold war, the collapse of the USSR and the crisis of the ‘ 80s. While the United States alive, they have a chance to revive and attempt revenge. But this round for Russia, as well as previous (destroyed the Soviet Union) was for the USA. Washington is no longer a global hegemon. De jure it was never there, and de facto recognized it, evacuating the group from Syria.
2. In turn, this means that all allies of the United States (from the EU and several Latin American regimes to Ukraine and Syrian Kurds), they made a bet, as the hegemon, has lost, will lose and will have to look for a new patron. The hardest will have the Kurds and Kiev. An independent Kurdish territory and the Kiev regime without American patronage is not viable in principle, and wanting to replace the US as the patron of Rozhava and Ukraine clearly there is not expected. I think that Ukraine should look to the Kurdish experience. Something similar, though not identical (and with most of the others) could happen to her. So far, however, finally decided the candidate for the role of Erdogan, but wanting a lot.
3. Turkey and Russia have proved their ability, despite the presence of significant contradictions caused by objectively existing national interests, and find mutually beneficial compromises.
4. The international authority of Russia as a whole and its credibility in the middle East in particular, has increased dramatically. In this region dominated by Moscow.
5. Assad has never been closer to full restoration of the territorial integrity of Syria. Let me remind you that the first criticism of the operation HQs in Syria did not believe that the Syrian regime is in principle able to save, believed that the civil war Assad has lost and can only prolong his agony. Then they had to admit that relying on Russian support, Assad is winning the civil war. But in re-establishing its authority throughout the country critics did not believe, saying that U.S. will never leave strategically advantageous position in Rojava. Now we have to admit that Assad has all the chances to regain control over all the Syrian territories. By the way, I would not be surprised if in these circumstances, Assad will threaten the return of the Golan heights and get the job done. Over the past decade, group support of Israel has thinned and weakened considerably, and Syria has gained powerful allies.In General, the list of the Russian achievements of Erdogan’s operations for a long time, but mostly I think that was brilliantly confirmed the correctness of the chosen Russian strategy guide. Having a smaller resource base than the USSR, and being in semi-isolation in the international arena, Russia has been able to achieve what the Soviet Union could not achieve during its existence a firm foot to become in the middle East — the geopolitical center of the planet. Thus, in contrast to the crazy spending of the resources of the USSR, Russia has economical and resource-saving policy, earning the strengthening of its geopolitical position, by arms and other contracts.
Victory in Syria is the best answer to domestic critics demanding to occupy the Ukraine, then to start a war with Turkey, not to intervene in the Syrian crisis. Mainly due to the diplomatic maneuvering (though the military contributed) Russia instead get involved in some meaningless futile resursosberegayuschih military conflicts, reclassified a lot of enemies (from Turkey to Saudi Arabia) in situational allies. Moscow is enhanced by their capacity (or due to the fact that these capabilities are not used against Russia). Meanwhile, the US is a geopolitical opponent of Russia, trying to be strong everywhere and applying to a discordant system power pressure (as an alternative to the Russian system searches for mutually beneficial trade-offs), losing of allies (with their resources) and permanently weakened. At some point quantity turned into quality and we saw a stampede of the United States from Syria under a Russian-Turkish pressure.
Sometime in 2015, debating with a disgruntled sending videoconferencing in Syria (and not bombing Kiev and Lviv), I explained to them that Syria is a strategic point, the center for global positions that the victory of Syria will win everywhere. Autumn. Consider chickens.Rostislav Ishchenko