Folha: the one who is not able to create, forced to imitate

Folha: тот, кто не способен создавать, вынужден подражать

The main point of the intersection of Economics and geopolitics is a key theme of the rise and fall of Nations. Quantitative studies show that the risk of war seriously increased when you pass the baton from one of the world’s economic powers to the other. The rise of Germany and Japan paved the way for the outbreak of the First world war, just as the rise of Russia was one of the reasons for the Second.Today’s world is, perhaps, the most radical violation of the balance of forces between the powers for many centuries. It is expected that less than 15 years the Chinese economy will surpass the economy of the United States. From a historical point of view, is nothing more than a return to the norm. In the end, for the last 20 centuries the largest economies in the world were China and India, with the exception of the last two centuries XIX and XX, when the West came capitalism.However, the current change of the economic team is much more dangerous than the rise of the United States on the world top a hundred years ago, when America surpassed Britain. The difference is that the US and Britain were allies with a similar Outlook between the US and China are antagonists.Since 1950-ies of the United States stand at the head of quite an open international regime, which is supported by the multilateral rules of the WTO, IMF and the UN and preference for democracies. But the Leninist China is controlled by XI Jinping, who shows no signs of political openness.How China has managed to climb to the top, if only 60 years ago, its economy was in even worse state than today, Venezuelan, so from malnutrition killed 40 million people? The secret is to be able to use the “advantages of backwardness”.To carry out the industrial revolution, Europe of the 18th century had almost zero resources, because the world was not the available capital. But the war-devastated Japan and Germany have imported the American capital, and liberalized trade in the context of the international regime of Pax Americana, the most direct route back on a common path of prosperity.While Brazil has adopted the import substitution and limited the import of foreign computer equipment, lagging China in late 1979 decided to join the dynamic regime of the world economy, exactly following the pattern of the pioneers of the West.In short, the advantage of backwardness can be provided at the expense of free trade simulation the most effective practices and inflow of capital from third parties.All the participants of this race, in which Deng Xiaoping launched 40 years ago, rushed forward at all the blades, whereas we did not budge. In 1980, the average income of a Brazilian is 15% of middle-income Americans, but ten times the income of Chinese. Our current rate in the U.S. remains at the same level — 15%, but the Chinese managed to overtake us and register a higher level of life! If before South Korea’s income was equivalent to our, he is now 3.5 times higher.It is extremely important to take advantage of the lag. The current geopolitical moment is favorable for Brazil from a strategic point of view due to the inadequate response of the United States. Trump is considering a trade war as a positive phenomenon, I am convinced that his quick victory and the insignificance of the collateral damage that it will inflict on the global regime. The American President three times wrong.Studies show that mutual trade is the variable that best explains the maintenance of peace among countries. Trump is a serious risk, betting against the world’s largest peacekeeper — Commerce. Brazil, in turn, should contribute to greater exchange.One of the brilliant ideas of F. Hayek (F. A. Hayek) is that capitalism is beneficial not only for those who live under this system, but less regulated societies, where little development protection of private property and limited access to world trade. This is what happened with the Chinese: not free, but richer than the Brazilians. In a democracy like ours, the advantages of the lag even more. Someone who is not able to create, forced to copy. It is time to learn that lesson.

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