Forecast for 2020-e — 2030, e: Russia, China, and the full Greta Thunberg

Прогноз на 2020-е — 2030-е: Россия, Китай и полная Грета Тунберг

“The vision Tundale” (school of Hieronymus Bosch, the mid-16th century)
The new, 2020 will be the end of the decade. Here ends and the “early 2000s”. Mid-century (2040-e — 2050-e) far away, and yet there comes some “intertemporal”. What will it be? At best disturbing.

The last three times, mankind has met the beginning of the century with hope: Education dulled fears of the end of the world. In 1800, Europe believed that the world is a matter of weeks. Then Napoleon Bonaparte defeated the counter-revolutionaries vandeyets, then revolutionaries Jacobins and announced an Amnesty for the royalists. The monarchs of Europe breathed a sigh of relief. In December, Paul I persuaded Prussia to create a “League of neutrality” (Convention on armed neutrality, not to be confused with the eponymous 1780), which immediately was joined by Sweden and the Danish-Norwegian Kingdom. Vienna resigned to the loss of Italy, concluded with a truce and expressed a willingness to sign the Convention. And then the world. Napoleon had no Navy, Britain has no allies willing to die for its interests on the continent. Three months later Paul was killed.What hopes the Europeans met the 20th century, written, rewritten: a century of peace, progress and welfare. And several projects of the future League of Nations. Somewhere textually similar to the Convention of Paul I. compared to 1900 can only be 2000. It seemed that on the eve of humanity cared about was a possible computer glitch due to the change of the Millennium. Yes, China rises, but as long as something speculative. Kosovo is the “exception” of international law (and after 20 years and the Golan heights): it was a decision of the United States, and Russia will wipe. As said about this terrible revolutionary Ukrainian TV presenter Dmytro Gordon: “Every cricket stick to his last”.

There are differences. In the 19th and 20th centuries, expectations collapsed in the first 20 years — bled the Europe of the Napoleonic wars and the First world war. Century blurred the terrorist attack of 11 September 2001 on the twin towers and the “global campaign against terrorism.” With the destruction of Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria. Not everyone, of course, strictly under the scheme. The problem “unresolved” the First world was solved Second. Today, the United States end the “battle with terrorism” and move on to the key issue of confrontation with China.

Try to explain to those who thought the author was abusing the numerology. He is not. And people in General, including the elites — political, military, even economic, tend to fit the predictions, concepts, strategic doctrine and even contracts under round date. Under the “folksy” perception. On these dates round plans often “break” — showing the inconsistency. What causes a crisis. The examples in the Lite version: the contract on gas transit through the territory of Ukraine valid until January 1, 2020. It’s more convenient. That crisis is under “convenience” lay down. And if you fall through the negotiations on the deepening of integration within the Union state of Belarus and Russia, adapted to the 20th anniversary of the contract? And a crisis will fall on the other?

But, again, it was the examples in the Lite version. When thousands of scientists, economists, the military caught the hype on the “warning to humanity”: “the age of China!” (and even the “Chinese Millennium”), the civilized world forgets who today announced the whole world, all, without exception, a sphere of its vital interests, is in the middle of half a dozen military campaigns, asks the Iranian protesters to send photos and videos “brutal crackdown” (not cruel, apparently, is not necessary) and adopt the law in the defense of the autonomy of Hong Kong from the government in Beijing.Purely Philistine China’s growth scare. But let’s not forget that before the industrial revolution in England in the 18th century, China had already produced half of world GDP (and a fifth part of India). What? Much more scary is that from the Western media suddenly went serious analytical materials about the problems of the Chinese economy, on the socio-political factors that inhibit its development. Either it is not in the interest of the audience or does not meet the task of demonizing China.

So, the main content of the 2020s — 2030-ies will be a confrontation between the US and China. This seems to be no doubt from anyone. It is also clear that China will postpone a General battle as long as possible, and the US — to force the issue, making allowance only for the preparation of the necessary conditions: the formation of the coalition, the geo-strategic environment of China, the possibility of creating a critical obstacle for its economic and military development. When/if these possibilities are exhausted, there will be only war.

Well, as a “war”… Even 40 years ago the military thought bubbled in a direction that, as it seems strategists, designers, and analysts, will ensure victory in a nuclear war without a nuclear Apocalypse. According to this idea, the forces of Good create the absolute superiority in arms (ideally non-nuclear), which can within minutes to destroy air defense and command system of the forces of Evil. Upper class — blindness of the strategic forces. Then the enemy made a peaceful offer you can’t refuse. Looks clever, though haven’t tried.

In our case (sorry, in Chinese) and at the level of fantasy, it can be offer Beijing to recognize the independence of Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, to heap, to Tibet and democratization, disarmament, the destruction of production all that make US good guys. Here, the sauce can be very different: the conversion and privatization of the 1990s are still remembered.

The U.S. position on several points just seems stupid. Why would opposition to the Nord stream-2 and sanctions in General to redirect Russian energy routes to the East? But the reason in this. First, these routes are expensive and Moscow, and Beijing. Secondly, the appearance of a large buyer in the East will enable Russia to keep the price of gas in the West, which in turn will increase the chances of us shale gas. Russia gently hint: don’t want to be part of a small ring around China, happens to be inside big. And Europe is the weak link of the big ring. Not even a link, and the interweaving of links, each of which is weak. USA can’t cede Europe to the axis China-Russia.Is and third. US understand that yelling “Russia is becoming a satellite of China!” is a stamp of the information war designed, in General, the obviously appreciative audience. Russia refuses to become part of the “One belt one road”. There is no “belt”, no caravans of camels loaded with tea and porcelain on the “road” from China. There is a group of countries closer to Europe, where China produces products to Europe at very favorable conditions. Sri Lanka, Kenya, Ethiopia get from Beijing, the associated loans when the money is actually staying in China. Since the Technopark project is ordered in China, businesses, roads, power plants built by Chinese engineers and workers, using Chinese construction equipment, factories installed Chinese equipment (it’s all for a good salary and high prices of the loan), and the products are sold at prices agreed upon with the lender. Russia, with all due respect to the Chinese comrades on these terms is not working. Slower, but build yourself.

However, Russia is not offended: on offended water carry. In October it became known that Moscow will provide assistance to Beijing in the modernization of the system of missile attack warning (early warning system). More precisely, in creating a modern system of early warning system, including in addition to the radar and satellite networks the most important element is the software part, the information processing system, what the Chinese really bad. Well, and showed us the experts “vanguard” of the weapons of the forces of Good, which can prevent large-scale nuclear conflict. Although the General impression is that Russia is holding open all the doors. Why the Chinese suspect that we abandon them, we need only to entice us side chair of the G7(8).

It is in vain. In the long stay of Vladimir Putin in power is a definite plus. 20 years is long enough to realize that the civilized world is ruled by personality, able to take responsibility, and not the vaunted “procedures”. Ruled by an oligarchy (a euphemism for: “deep government”), and happiness, if the oligarchs were able to agree among themselves on the domestic political agenda. Obligations to allies in the fifth place, in front of the other on the tenth. To negotiate with whom and about, any international agreement, such as agreement on Iran’s nuclear program, can be broken even without an officially announced reason. This world can only coexist. Carefully observing the distance and hygiene.Fortunately, with the exception of five or six crazed European Russophobes, there are not many countries willing to “take the tongs” of China and Russia. Somewhere, in South East Asia, is crucial to understanding that in case of conflict, the allies will be crushed within weeks. And even only the threat of war would destroy their economy, such as tourism. In 1979, Hanoi, having hardened in the recent Vietnam war the army and then modern weapons, was able to fend off China in the brief conflict. But it’s been 40 years. So it will be “grumbling” of Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia regarding the construction of China’s Islands in the South China sea, effectively capturing its waters, but will not have the slightest movement in the United States, promising to “protect the international artery”.

Japan has no excuse, but the immediate cause of the war in the Pacific became a total embargo of Washington to supply Tokyo oil and other products in the summer of 1941 that not only limited the ability of the Imperial army, but also set Japan on the brink of economic collapse. And the icing on the cake was the blockade of… the South China sea. Despite the fact that neither Japan nor the United States had not yet entered the Second world war: the United States recognized the government of Marshal Henri Philippe pétain “voluntarily” invited to the Imperial armed forces to ensure the protection of French Indochina. So, as one Thai businessman: “We want to dig a canal (via the KRA isthmus in the Indian ocean), to forget about the sea and all its conflicts.” What naivety. Soon China has offered Thailand’s assistance in the construction of the canal.

Other countries like India and Pakistan understand that grew out of the age when territorial disputes over several mountain valleys do not allow them to truly become actors in world politics, make them objects of manipulation. Despite a severe Indo-Pakistani conflict this year, there were indications that the parties can use it to… solution of longstanding Kashmir issue. This topic deserves a separate article in the near future.

Afghanistan’s President Ashraf Ghani has promised that the Taliban will be defeated as well as broken the ISIS. Sounded surprising, given that ISIS terrorists have for many years fought the Taliban and government forces only took the cream. Donald trump can withdraw the remaining US troops from the country. And can do tricky like Barack Obama: as if to withdraw, but too little to leave. To leave successor the honor already to withdraw all the troops and enter the history books loser and the culprit lesion in Afghanistan. Trump doesn’t want that. 20 years being stuck in a world hole or 25 — the difference is small.Scary and funny, but not the British or the Soviet Union, namely the United States could solve the problem with this country (well, if you cannot give her to live by their own laws). By 2001, the Taliban, are of themselves proper defenders of the true faith, plunged into Pashtun nationalism. Not only massacred Shia Hazaras, but also began to push the faithful Sunnis: Pashto was declared the only official language, dari (Kabul Persian) lost that status. Tajiks and Uzbeks were forced out of power, they have near-impunity has taken away business, and even land. They replied with the expulsion of Pashtun tribes from the North of the country. The Afghan nation has cracked. Here then would be to divide the country into two halves. North immediately would become the most peaceful territory in the region, and the South gradually became involved would be to Pakistan for 200 million of the country too, not a big difference, the 25 million Pashtuns in it or 35. But the United States discovered in Afghanistan theaters, where they showed women (dressed, dressed), made the election “by Western standards” and decided that it’s in the bag. A few years share it was too late: the Taliban repent, the nation healed.

Iran in crisis. You can blame the recent riots solely to the state Department and the brethren, but we must recognize that alone, though exceptional patriotism the regime will not last long. Supporters and, interestingly, the opponents of the ruling say almost the same thing: either the war and the defeat of Saudi Arabia and its allies, making it impossible sanctions against Iran: the world is simply not enough oil and gas, or the threat is a nation-wide protest.

Sorry for jumping from “geopolitics” in “domestics” and back, but recently shared their observations, a Georgian friend. Seven or eight years ago, the Iranians went to his restaurant (a little away from the tourist route), two, rarely three. Carefully examined the visitors and only after making sure that no school compatriots ordered the wine (and often spirits) and pork (“with this view, as luck would have it”). Women removed the hijab in the bathroom. Today can come in 10 man, not paying any attention to anybody, and one of the girls pulled khimar right at the table. Fun and ease. It is more serious than the rest.

The Nobel peace prize this year, Prime Minister of Ethiopia — just the kiss of Judas. High awards Abiy Ahmed Ali was awarded for the fact that he signed with the Eritrean President Isaiah Afeworki the peace Treaty, de jure, to end the war that de facto ended almost 20 years ago. While scientists wondered why uncle of the Nobel Committee offended the young off that pet shop Dame Greta Thunberg, something. The lingering clashes between the two major peoples of Ethiopia — Amhara and Oromo — escalated into street fighting in Addis Ababa. But it was not necessary to name Ethiopia as a “strategic partner” of China and to brag that in a few years there will be 100 industrial parks, built with the help of China.

It is hoped that these wars will pass us by. But easy next twenty years still will not. In November 2018, we shared the forecasts of the most respected institutions and experts on the development of robotics and artificial intelligence in the coming years, see “Russia has good chances to survive another difficult century”. Honestly, it has raised questions forecast to 2030 authoritative Institute McKinsey according to which the pace of robotization of the Russian economy will be comparable with the rate of Germany. Yes, we just “Eurasian tiger”. But there is one “but”. Make dozens (!) million dismissed workers, can only-employment, small and medium business. Their share in Germany’s GDP is 60%. In Russia — 25%. We are also reminded that the main consumer of real, not paper innovation — the same small and medium businesses. Big business has used to resolve issues of competition, as if to say, with the help of the administrative resource.

A month ago, in a speech at Moscow international forum for innovative development “Open innovations” the head of the government of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev confirmed that, Yes, successfully robotisees: low-skilled labor — robots, and people “to think creatively and quickly to solve.” And to dispel fears about employment, told a paragraph from a New history textbook for grade 9 about the movement of the English Luddites who were afraid of progress and broken machines. Admitted that the government that had also feared, but not anymore: “we must prepare for serious retraining of people,” “this requires, in turn, changes in the education system” etc. etc. somehow adding that “nobody can give any guarantees on employment”. Sorry, this is not about Bob, Pete, Cola, and about the country? It says the head of the government?

Self-employment, small and medium businesses — the Foundation of a sustainable economy, saving, treating, pull any country out of the severe crisis, somehow did not fit into the ambitious plans. This is the main economic challenge for our country. And the economic and political means. Roughly speaking, if you screw up here, we will with Oromo and Amhara, and pearl Harbor Kashmir, and the full Greta Thunberg. But you do not want.Albert Hakobyan (Urumov)

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