Hope that Zelensky will arrive from Paris with the Treaty on the transit of gas, or at least with a clear introduction to the transit and direct deliveries of Russian gas did not materialize.
The sides only said that they “agreed to agree”. However, it is possible that the public was not the voice of all, and in fact, the negotiations were more productive, just ze did not disclose all the cards for fear of being “zrade”.
However, as experts consider, now, the fate of transit will be decided not so much at the tripartite talks Kiev-Brussels-Moscow in the Ukraine and the USA.
“The diagrams on the reverse of Russian gas from Europe earn billions of dollars. And it is unlikely this money, someone is just going to refuse” – said the expert of the energy market and the head of the tenants Union of Ukraine Alexander Skubchenko.
Head of special projects of the SEC “Psyche” Gennady Ryabtsev believes that until January 1, of the transit agreement may not be. And then Ukraine, and Europe will experience all the delights of the “gas blockade” – from the overlapping of the valve to the cold battery in certain regions. Which indirectly was confirmed by Prime Minister Alexey Goncharuk, allowing the “gas war” between Ukraine and Russia.
“Country” is understood what is actually agreed on gas because will transit and direct deliveries of gas.
Discussed gas in Paris and what will be the transit
Official information, voiced by the results of negotiations on gas very stingy.
President Vladimir Zelensky said that he sees prospects for reaching agreement on a new contract for the transit. And that he might be imprisoned more than one year. At a briefing in Paris Zelensky to the question of whether extended the contract for transit said, “I am sure that we have a better chance to sign with better conditions than before discussed our representatives”.
He added: “I don’t want to say all details, but do not mention the contract is for one year. All removed it from the discussion. That is – for a number of years”. The President also made it clear that it will not be ten years, as previously insisted Ukraine, and “somewhere in between”.
Specific details will be developed later, in separate negotiations.
We previously discussed the option about which already wrote “Country” – a three-year contract under the scheme of 50-40-30, that is, with a gradual decrease in volumes of pumping. This is advantageous both for Russia, which needs another year and a half to complete start bypass pipelines, and Europe, wishing to secure a safety net for transit.
But experts believe that in fact the public was not given all.
“It is possible that while all items decided not to advertise. First, ze is afraid of accusations of “zrade”. Secondly, he realizes that there is fighting inside of Ukraine for the implementation of these arrangements and not all can succeed. And all to advertise is an additional risk that, in the end, everything can be broken,” – said the expert of the energy market, the head of the tenants Union of Ukraine Alexander Skubchenko.
As it became known “the Country” from its own sources in the energy sector, speech can go not about a three-year, and five-year contract for the transit of 50-60 billion cubic meters per year, that is, without annual decline.
The price for us and now would be the European hub, but the “discount” of approximately 20-25%.
It should be noted that the question of direct gas supplies officially remained “behind the scenes”, unless you count humorous poem Putin that “we have gas in the apartment and you will have 25% less”.
But expert Yury Korolchuk does not exclude that direct delivery was uttered more in detail.
Earlier, Russian energy Minister Alexander Novak said about the readiness of Russia to supply Ukraine with 15 billion cubic meters per year with a discount of 25%. His Ukrainian colleague Alexey Orzhel talked about the fact that Ukraine may agree to accept due to it at the Stockholm arbitration compensation in the $ 3 billion gas.
Supposedly, there is progress in the matter of tariffs. Previously, “Country” wrote that “Naftogaz” put “Gazprom” the new price tag for pumping gas, where the rate is tied to the volume (from 2.56 to $ 3.21 USD per thousand cubic meters per 100 kilometers). And for “Gazprom” it can be “gold”, making the Russian gas uncompetitive in Europe for the price.
But, according to Korolchuk, there are already recommendations of the German working group “Naftogaz” to consolidate the transit tariff at 2.5 dollars per thousand cubic meters per 100 kilometers (the lower bracket).
That is, pumping thousands of cubic meters of gas will cost Gazprom average of 32-33 dollars. And, according to the source, Zelensky may affect the expeditious resolution of this matter with the regulator, NERC.
“We already have a General understanding of agreement on transit, but there is no understanding in detail, for example, who will carry out the same direct delivery. On these issues and will work the negotiators,” – says Korolchuk.
Soros and a billion dollars a day
But the issue of transit still remains certainly not solved.
It is noteworthy that Prime Minister Alexey Goncharuk the next day after the summit, wrote on his page in Facebook that the gas negotiations, we have reached our objective.
“Brought the issue of transit of gas beyond the discussion of the topic in the Donbass. Not agreed a contract, but it’s not supposed to happen in Paris. Ukraine will agree about the gas then, perhaps, not easy, perhaps with a “gas war”. But we are fully ready for this: our vault is filled, our logic is supported by the EU and the decision of the Stockholm arbitration, and Nord stream-2 under construction. We need a long-term contract. We noted that the debt does not give. One of the options that this debt can take gas,” wrote Goncharuk.
The message about the “gas war” was picked up by Ukrainian and Russian media.
Co-founder of the energy strategies Foundation Dmytro Marunych advises not to perceive the words Goncharuk seriously, saying “something is not understood”. But in fact, the transit stop on 1 January 2020 is very real.
Moreover, Gennady Ryabtsev sure that this option – more than likely.
“Until January 1, we have a contract, most likely, will not. When it’s back – in a week or in a month, no one knows for sure,” he says.
The reason is not even that side for the remaining 20 days will not have time to negotiate. And that to break the existing scheme of gas supplies to Ukraine will be not as easy as it seems at first glance.
Now Ukraine buys the same Russian gas through Ukrainian and European traders. And that’s earned a lot of money.
“The average margin for a thousand cubic meters is $ 40-50 and it’s now – or the low gas prices. And, for example, in the past year, reaching 90-100 dollars per thousand cubic meters”, – says Skubchenko.
Given that Ukraine consumes about 12 billion cubic meters of gas, “fat” is just a record of 480 billion, or about 1.3 billion dollars for each day of reverse “European gas”.
That is, if the existing scheme to conserve the money as before will flow into the pockets of the beneficiaries of these schemes.
“There is a desire to maintain control over these streams, and all this is done now under the Patriotic sauce” – said the analyst of the Institute Growford Alex Kush.
“Even a temporary suspension of the contract and “Gazprom” and “Naftogaz” will earn a lot of money. First, due to the expected growth of prices in Europe, the second – due to the “gas surcharges”, says Ryabtsev.
Even among beneficiaries (because of price growth) can be the Ukrainian miners of gas. In particular, Igor Kolomoisky, who is the co-owner of “Ukrnafta”.
However, there are other interested parties.
“The issues of gas is important for the United States and Soros, who is considered the “curator” of “Naftogaz”. No wonder that on the eve of the IMF summit promised us a loan and even agreed to remove the issue of the opening of the land market. Apparently, the gas interests were higher priority. Credit is given the fact that Ukraine will take a tough stance in negotiations with Russia on gas”, – said Skubchenko.
For US the question of exclusion from the European market Gazprom is strategic, since they have plans to increase the supply of liquefied natural gas. For this reason, the United States still do not lose hope to prevent the overlap of the “Nord stream”.
In the draft law on the defence budget of the States included sanctions, which, as announced in the “Naftogaz”, will stop work on the construction of a Sulfur stream-2.
“We expect that the project will be voted on in both chambers of the American Parliament and signed by President Ladder to the start of the Christmas holidays,” reads the page of the NAC in Facebook.
Another issue is that in reality the launch of the Nord stream-2, this has little impact, because it is almost ready, and Germany has recently lifted restrictions on the filling. “Previously, the rate that the pipeline can not be filled by one company of more than 40%”, – says Alexei Kusch.
And it is against the background of this war for gas flows to Ukraine will disperse “zradu” gas – says Skubchenko.
Experts believe that “Naftogaz” will continue to derail the attempts of the political leadership to negotiate.
“If the agreement on transit will be signing the new independent operator – “gas pipelines of Ukraine”, here’s the agreement on the direct supply is the prerogative of “Naftogaz” – said Ryabtsev.
But in the “Naftogaz” is not so simple.
“In the negotiations in Paris were not KOBOLEV, and Vitrenko. The NAC has long been internal division: if COBOL is on the side of Soros and the US, Vitrenko – more on the side Zelensky as the Minister of energy Alexey Orzhel (which, incidentally, recently announced the resignation KOBOLEV, but then his words denied in the government – Ed.)”, says Skubchenko.
Tonight on the page in Facebook the Executive Director of “Naftogaz” Vitrenko has shared some interesting thoughts on the progress of the negotiations.
He writes that “at first was not excited to discuss the issues of gas transit and enforcement of the Stockholm arbitration in the Normandy format. But now, I should note that it was helpful.At least from the point of view that discussing these issues directly with Putin was able to better understand his personal position”.
The essence of this “position” Vitrenko is not describes, but from his post it is clear that Putin is fundamental to the question of judicial claims of “Naftogaz” to “Gazprom”. The Ukrainian side, according to Vitrenko, standing his ground.
He also notes that the decision of the Stockholm arbitration, both existing and future, are not an obstacle for the new transit contract with the new independent operator with “Gazprom” is not condemned.
But, obviously, assuming that a compromise on this issue may not be, he writes that the Ukrainian side is “ready to discuss other options”.
One of these options – contracts “swap” when “Naftogaz” will take gas on the Eastern border, and to give in the West, while private operators in the Ukraine and Europe will be responsible for the physical transportation of gas.
“In this case, these contracts are “swap” should provide “Naftogaz” income, adequate compensation for the withdrawal of the lawsuits in the Stockholm arbitration totaling more than $ 12 billion,” says Vitrenko.
This option, of course, is of no interest to Gazprom, but another scheme, which they said Vitrenko, it may be quite working and to ensure gas transit in General without any long-term contracts.
We are talking about transferring points transfer gas to the border of Ukraine-Russia to European companies, but not “Gazprom” has concluded contracts for transit.
That is, in fact, we are talking about work on European rules, that is, the auction system and reservation capacity. Such a scheme is as yet in October he wrote “the Country” could become a real solution to the problem of transit.
But it’s unclear – whether to start from 1 January, given the extremely short time
South-West of the country on the Romanian gas industry in the red
Ordinary Ukrainians play in the “gas war” can be expensive. “There may be problems with heating in some areas, in particular, the Odessa, Kharkov and in the Donbas,” – said Skubchenko.
“In the South of Odessa region in General can be a collapse. In case of stoppage of transit stops functioning pipe Shebelinka-Krivoy Rog. Romanians have stated that they are ready to put gas. Dozhilis!”, – angry Korolchuk.
Problems with gas prepares and Europe.
“The whole week dosagecialis to store 300 million cubic meters per day. And Bulgaria is maximally accelerated with the launch of her line “Turkish stream” instead of the beginning of January 2020, it will launch on December 15. And on December 16 a local operator declares the auction for gas supplies towards Romania and Moldova. That is, for Moldovans, for whom everything was generally bad (they have their own underground storage) the problem is solved, although, of course, a few days to chill maybe have”, – said Marunych.
But even the short stop transit threatens to dramatically drive the price of gas in Europe – against the background of hype they can jump up to $ 400 per thousand cubic meters. Especially on the spot market (short term contracts), where purchases of gas by Ukraine. That is, again, a matter of money, which can be quickly “lift”.
Open this leaves the question of tariffs for heating and hot water Zelensky promised to reduce by 50%. The price of gas for households and heating utilities this winter recorded, that is, rates rise, in theory, should not. But fall in this situation they are unlikely.
But the industry, which buys natural gas at market prices, may be adversely affected, which will force the company to raise prices on their products and will further intensify the decline in some sectors.Liudmila Ksenz