Georgia online: shock and anger in Georgia

Грузия online: шок и ярость в Грузии

On 14 November, the Georgian Parliament failed to adopt constitutional changes to the electoral code, the same changes that the authorities have promised angry citizens after the “night Gavrilova”. It is no exaggeration to say that this decision led first to shock and then to anger the vast majority of players in the political field of Georgia, including some now former and current government officials.But let’s take first things first. A mixed system of formation of Parliament of Georgia has a long history since the times of Eduard Shevardnadze, and was established as the optimal model for the preservation of the power of the ruling party. The formal reason for the transition to such a system was the fact that the Constitution of Georgia the Parliament shall be bicameral. The highest chamber was supposed to be elected according to majority system and proportional lower. But there was one caveat — the bicameral Parliament was only after the restoration of territorial integrity, and yet offered a mixed system. The question arises why this combined system is so bad. It is actually simple, most powerful people are always interested in the fact that power was on their side, ideal to be himself this power. The presence of a majority system a great tool to realize these desires. For example, in the last parliamentary elections in all majority districts, without exception, were won by the representatives of the ruling party. Even more amusing example, teleportation majority of deputies from the National movement won the elections in 2012 the party of Bidzina Ivanishvili “Georgian dream”.That is why almost all opposition parties have demanded a transition from a mixed to a proportional system of elections, and for the same reason, the same Georgian dream pledged to abandon the mixed system in 2016, has not done so until now. Why didn’t I think to explain not necessary. Much more interesting to answer the question, why suddenly the “Georgian dream” decided to change the already adopted decision on transition to a proportional system in 2024, and why do they need to go to a proportional system, if combined so good for the current government.Why the ruling party decided to switch to a proportional system in 2020?A forced transition to a proportional election system was caused by several factors. First, the pressure from partners of Georgia. No interference in the internal Affairs of the country there can be no question. The situation is simple as a pencil, if you’re talking about the desire to integrate into the European Union and NATO, if you declare loyalty to European values, be kind, behave accordingly. Otherwise your Declaration will be perceived as an attempt to fool the partners, and it will be true. Not to say that I have no claims to our partners, they are and they consist in the fact that too often the West has turned a blind eye to the blatant hypocrisy of our government in matters of democracy and human rights. So it was before, but the previous government was at least rational justification, namely the hybrid war of Russia against Georgia. They say, if it is to be Democrats, we are inevitably overthrown by Pro-Russian forces. By the way, as time has shown, justification is not rational. The national movement lost power it was under this electoral system. We have a democracy was the result of the election, seasoned with a whole flock of black swans from personnel with brooms and Lapankuri to murder nine-month-old Barbara Repellants. But now it’s not about that. The current government is not and this argument, even the most desperate supporters of the “Georgian dream” will not venture to assert that the Kremlin is dreaming, how to remove Bidzina Ivanishvili and his political team from power. So the reason to not demand from the people, declaring fidelity to democracy, the implementation of the basic democratic norms of our Western partners is definitely not. Tell them, Yes, I’m a son of a bitch, but I’m your son of a bitch, Bidzina Ivanishvili just can not.No less significant reason was the fear of power after the “night Gavrilova”. At this point it was decided to throw a bone to the protesters in the form of the much-anticipated transition to a proportional system. And it was done in Jesuit clever. The proposal to move to a proportional system with zero barrier of passage to Parliament once did political players a huge mass of people who called themselves politicians rather conditional. The exact number of political parties in Georgia, I don’t know, according to the latest data, they are more than four hundred, but many claim to have over six hundred. In conditions, when two dozen of thousands of voters unable to provide a seat in Parliament, any more or less famous person could think about the prospect of creating your own party. And one more thing, the ban on electoral blocs, virtually eliminating the possibility of uniting the opposition, which by the way played a big role in the 2012 election.If this was a problem for the “Georgian dream”? No, at that time it was not. The political potential of the ruling party in Georgia consists of several components — a financial resource Bidzina Ivanishvili, the administrative resource in the field, the resources of their business structures, media resource, and the most underrated, because unknown to the General public, resource back-office Ivanishvili, using modern technology. Given all of the above and the fragmentation of the opposition, even with the proportional system from the “Georgian dream” had plenty of options to retain power. For example, when you create a coalition, if the ruling party would win a simple majority, even if all the above mentioned resources. Moreover, this option would be very easy for “Dreams”, as would the issue of procedural democracy, that is, the Western partners would show that everything is in order, the power in Georgia changed after two cycles and changes. Because the coalition and the constitutional majority of one of the ruling party, as they say in Odessa, two big differences. Moreover, it could be a situation where the ruling party had to choose between a coalition with the Pro-Russian parties and coalition with the Pro-Western parties. Naturally the choice would have been generously made in favor of Pro-Western, which once again would have confirmed the correct geopolitical orientation of the ruling party and personally by Bidzina Ivanishvili. But, something went wrong.Something went wrong taccogna at the beginning of hearings for the adoption of a new constitutional law in the ranks of the ruling party appeared insurgents, who disagree with the General line, most experts took it as a cute misunderstanding. Well, pobuzit and calm down, especially since the insurgents were not so much. However, looking at the anxious faces of the deputies from the majority was clear, so it is not so simple. Twice on the initiative of majority voting was postponed, two nights in a row of deputies of the ruling party gathered Bidzina Ivanishvili. After the draft bill was defeated, Ivanishvili published a special statement in which has accused in the incident, the opposition, and also expressed their regret about the fact that such an important initiative is not passed in Parliament. However, the vast majority of commentators do not believe the Chairman of the ruling party, and it was a good reason. First, before Ivanishvili is very easily suppressed local riots, as all the teams understand that quarrel with him more. Second, among the insurgents were people who politically connected personally with Ivanishvili generic umbilical cord, and to imagine that the same Dmitry Khundadze go against the will of the President, absolutely impossible. Finally, any sanctions against the insurgents, even symbolic, like as not planned. Even if such sanctions will follow, it will be a response to the protests, as it was with the resignation of the speaker of Parliament Irakli Kobakhidze this summer, but not punishment for the actions that led to a severe political crisis in the country.So what went wrong? Here we can only put forward the version, most likely of which is a real threat of losing power forced Ivanishvili to abandon the idea of transition to a proportional system, despite the difficult political consequences of this step. We have already talked about the fact that Ivanishvili is a very serious analytical team working with modern technologies. By the way this thesis is confirmed by the fact that in 2016 at the meeting with diplomats Irakli Kobakhidze with a precision of tenths of percent predicted the results of the elections to the Parliament. In order to stay in power “Georgian dream” was not necessary to gain a majority of votes. It was enough and 40%, provided that the Pro-Western political forces in the amount is less than 50%. It is obvious that the Pro-Western political forces under any circumstances would not go into a coalition with the Pro-Russian and Vice versa. But if at least one of these conditions is not met, the loss of power is more than probable. In addition, it is not enough to create a coalition is like a marriage, the wedding is only a beginning. It is likely that political consultations, albeit in a very closed, with possible partners have shown serious risks. Although this is only speculation, the motivation is now irrelevant. The decision is not accepted, period.What galishnikova Georgia awoke to a new political reality, and this reality is a political crisis. Let’s start with the crisis in the ruling party, the parliamentary majority has left eight deputies, among them Vice-speaker, Tamar Chugoshvili, Chairman of the Committee for European integration Tamar Khulordava, Chairman of the Committee on education Mariam Jashi, Chairman of the foreign relations Committee Sopo katsarava, deputies Dmitri Tskitishvili, Irina Pruidze, Giorgi Mosidze, Zaza Khutsishvili. A simple listing of posts held by these MPs speaks for itself. The motives of such a move is not principled, it is important that those who left were engaged in communication with the diplomatic corps and now the authorities of this communication is clearly violated. Additionally, this care adds up very inconvenient narrative — decent people in the party the power of doing nothing. This is evident even in the speeches of Pro-government experts, of which, incidentally, is extremely small. Their efforts to divert the blow from Ivanishvili and guide the grapes of wrath deputies-majoritarian obvious.Shock and anger characterize the response of the opposition. Opposition politicians can understand, today’s decision virtually nullified their plans for the coming political year. Everyone on the street — that was the appeal of the entire opposition, regardless of geopolitical orientation. This Georgia not seen since 2003, i.e. since the rose revolution. What yesterday seemed absolutely impossible, today became a reality. It is clear that now the government will attempt to crush the opposition, but this would be quite difficult, though, because for many of them the issue of transition to the proportional system it is a question of basic political survival. To believe promises Ivanishvili after what happened will be extremely difficult.How it is in real life, time will tell.

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