© turkstream.infoFour large new gas pipeline should be commissioned within the coming 2020. They will seriously change the system of gas supplies to Europe and Asia. In the countries through which the pipes are laid, will shatter the current balance of forces, say German Shepered environmental hype around renewable energy and reducing emissions of harmful substances into the atmosphere natural gas is almost forgotten, writes the influential German newspaper Die Welt.
But recently gas again pointedly reminded himself. First in Turkey, Greece and Italy, then in China. And soon an important event will happen in Germany. In all of these countries commissioned a major gas pipelines. These new export routes will redirect the gas streams and thereby affect many of interdependence. They will deliver to the world market of additional volumes of Russian and Azerbaijani gas for the first time.
New pipelines “proves that natural gas as an energy bridge, at least in the medium term, will occupy an exceptional place, because gas is the cleanest fossil fuel, stated in an interview with Die Welt Frank UMB, head of research Department European centre for energy and resource security at king’s College London. They also show that in the medium term will remain a need for fossil energy.”
But while the new routes from Russia to the European market additional volumes of gas were reported. As noted by Mikhail Krutikhin of the Moscow branch of the Agency “Rusenergo”, these pipelines are designed as an alternative supply routes to bypass problematic and crisis-prone transit through Ukraine. Only in China gas will be supplied to the local growing market.
It all started with Azerbaijan and Turkey. Recently, the heads of state of both countries arrived at the Turkish-Greek border for the first time to send gas coming from the Caspian sea through Turkey to the TRANS-Adriatic pipeline, leading to Albania and Italy and further to Western Europe.
When the pipeline will work at full capacity, according to him, the European continent will receive 10 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year. Although this volume is only 2% of European needs, this event was looking forward to.On the one hand, the new corridor will reduce the excessive dependence of Europe on Russian gas. On the other hand, the throughput of this pipeline relatively quickly and can be doubled, which I wish many governments in Europe for the diversification of imports.
Happy and Turkey, because it has secured additional income as a transit country and has gained geo-economic importance. But most of all happy Azerbaijan, which came from infrastructure isolation, the newspaper notes.
All of this was planned several years ago as part of the ongoing under the leadership of Austrian energy group OMV project “Nabucco”. But then nothing came of it: the Europeans and gas producing States of the Caspian sea failed to agree. Only when the Azerbaijanis and the Turks took matters into their own hands and built outdoor last year TRANS-Anatolian gas pipeline, the southern gas corridor earned.
Russian, writes the German edition, a competing project has not left indifferent. After all, Turkey was attractive for them not only as a transit country, but also as a buyer of gas with a population of 80 million people and with a lack of own natural resources.
Not by chance that Turkey until recently was the second after Germany export customer of Russia’s Gazprom. In 2018 she had purchased from Moscow 24 billion cubic meters of gas, reminiscent of Die Welt.
Gas from Azerbaijan and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from around the world Turkey begins to get rid of Russian dependency. However, in 2015 she has agreed to the construction of Gazprom’s new pipeline “Turkish stream” in the Black sea. Approximately теч5ение the next month needs to be put into operation the first line. Thanks to it, Russia is basically no longer need to transit through Ukraine, with which it is at loggerheads after the annexation of Crimea and civil war in the East.Gazprom with a large hunting would pave through the Black sea and other gas pipeline to pump gas through Turkey to southern Europe. But whether will allow the EU to connect them to your network? It is still a question, says the SBA.
The Europeans enough of their current problems with the Russians. First of all, to Brussels as an eyesore by the reluctance of Gazprom to renew expiring long-term agreement on the transit of Russian gas to Europe. The Russian concern is going to leave and so far not a prosperous Ukraine without billions of dollars in transit fees. Not accidentally, the construction of the Russian gas pipeline “Nord stream — 2” through the Baltic sea to Germany has been delayed.
But finally collected all resolution: latest gave Denmark. With a small delay of a new gas pipeline with a capacity of 55 billion cubic meters per year will be operational in mid-2020 — unless, of course, the United States will decide on sanctions to the European energy concerns, which has supported Gazprom in financing the project.
Washington has many times threatened that, officially to protect Europe from the Russians, and in fact — to bring their own industry the LNG to the European market. “We think that these sanctions are primarily intended to take out competitors,” — said recently the Russian Minister of energy Alexander Novak.
The EU itself over the last decade created enough conditions for competition, erecting everywhere the LNG receiving terminals, resulting in almost half of European gas demand can be covered by LNG imports, the newspaper notes. However, in recent years, the terminals are not used, because the gas from Russia is much cheaper.The price of gas is difficult to predict as the demand for this fuel emphasizes the UMB. In his opinion, even if the total demand falls, imports will still remain at the same level or even increase. Own gas production in Europe is steadily declining, recognizes Die Welt.
There is no doubt that Russia, and its biggest taxpayer, Gazprom, Europe is necessary as air. Because only here the concern is high profits. That is why the dependence of Gazprom from Europe more than Europe from Gazprom, considers the edition.
Not coincidentally Gazprom celebrates as liberation from dependence on its first-ever entry into Chinese market. In early December launched a new gas pipeline “Power of Siberia” running from Baikal to China.
The fact that Russia made a deal with the Chinese was due, among other things, and with Western sanctions against the Kremlin in connection with the annexation of Crimea in 2014 — says the German edition. Until then, Moscow and Beijing for ten years conducted unsuccessful negotiations. But in 2014, they signed a contract on gas supplies for 30 years. We are talking about the amount of 38 billion cubic meters per year. Total supplies are estimated at $ 400 billion, emphasizes Die Welt.
Despite this, Russian gas exports thanks to the Chinese market will grow in the future, as predicted by the International energy Agency. By 2030 it will increase by 26% compared to 2018 and will reach 290 billion cubic meters. And by 2040 a further 16%, ie up to 336 billion cubic meters.
The first gas pipeline between Russia and China, called the “Power of Siberia”. Its length is about 3 thousand kilometers, and Russia plans to supply it to China 38 billion cubic meters of gas per year. While the commissioned portion of the length of 2157 kilometers, according to German magazine Focus.
But for Russia and its gas monopoly Gazprom, it is still only the beginning: blue light — the logo of the group — soon will light up and the start of two other major projects.
Shortly after the New year, January 8, Putin with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan are going to run the “Turkish stream”, laid under the Black sea. In the second branch gas later will be shipped through Greece in the southern and South-Eastern Europe.However, the greatest difficulties for the Kremlin are connected with the branch “SP-2”. USA, several EU countries and Ukraine are still hoping to prevent the construction of a pipeline with a length of 1230 km. The President of the United States Donald trump warned the Europeans that they are hostage to energy supplies from Russia.
“SP-2” laid on the bottom of the Baltic sea for more than two-thirds, and by the end of this year could reach German territory in the vicinity of Greifswald. The cost of the work amounted to about ten billion euros. By pipeline to the EU countries in the future will flow up to 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak, comes from the fact that at full capacity the pipeline will work only in mid-2020. So the Russians are closely watching the US in the hope that they, just time will not be able to impose sanctions and “SP – 2” by that time will be put into operation.
After Germany’s refusal of atomic energy of Russia expects that in the future will be able to fill the vacated niche of its gas. However, given the uncertainty about the timing of the launch of “SP-2” Russia is dependent on transit through the territory of Ukraine.
The relevant contract expires at the end of this year, but to agree on the extension have not yet succeeded. However, at the end of last week after a lengthy but fruitless negotiations between Moscow and Kiev with the mediation of the European Commission hosted the first meeting of the heads of energy companies of both countries.
During a recent telephone conversation, Putin warned Ukrainian counterpart Vladimir Zelenskythat, if an agreement is not reached before the end of the year, the transit stop. Next week, namely on 9 December, politicians will meet in Paris this will be the first summit on the topic of the Ukrainian crisis for more than three years.
However, the focus will be ways to resolve the bloody conflict in the Donbass, and in the discussion will also involve German Chancellor Angela Merkel and President of France Emmanuel macron. However, neither in Kiev nor in Moscow do not exclude that Putin and Zelensky will also meet in a bilateral format, in particular, to discuss the prospects of the new gas agreement.Economically both parties are interested in this: having a crisis in Ukraine largely depends on the payment of Russian gas transit to EU countries. Russia is a major transit country to supply gas to Western Europe, ensuring energy security of the Old world.
Negotiations on the resolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has stalled. And time is running out. Europeans depend on the gas until “SP-2” not yet operational.
German weekly business magazine WirtschaftsWoche asked to assess the current situation expert on negotiating rené Schumann, managing the company Kerkhoff Negotiations.
Specialist outside the box came to evaluate and said that in such a difficult situation can help of game theory. In this conflict the situation is this: in the past Ukraine had considerable negotiating power. Russia depended on, whether will allow Ukrainians to transport Russian gas through its territory.
The situation in Ukraine has changed with the construction of “SP-2”. Ukraine has to change the playing field to strengthen its negotiating power to bring the game to the extra players, for example the United States as an ally. But she doesn’t. But it was her only chance not to fail in this power play, said rené Schumann.
Ukraine must decide with whom she wants to bond: with Europe or with the United States. But Ukraine does not make a decision nor that of any other direction. The risk for Ukraine to sell yourself too cheap is very large, it points directly specialist.
Russia has behaved very professionally in this conflict and have thought carefully about how to reduce its dependence on Ukraine. Russian is managed via a new pipeline. But he’s not ready. And Ukraine should take advantage of the remaining time. But it is not doing, and stalling, wasting thereby the remnants of the bargaining power.In the short term, said rené Schumann, Europe gas provided. The pipeline “SP-2” is based, will be enough. But the EU needs to protect themselves. The EU could support Ukraine in negotiations on a new transit contract purely out of self-interest, to avoid long-term dependence on Russian gas supply. But the EU does not use this chance.USA by all means trying to derail the new Russian gas pipeline. But Americans have no negotiating strategy. It is unclear what the overall strategy of Washington and Kiev. The United States should be interested in the fact that Ukraine remains a transit country. Just to speak out against “SP-2” is not a solution. The pipeline will be built. The only question is, what will happen then? United States and Ukraine, playing for time, but a long-term strategy they have.Andrei Nikolaev