© RIA Novosti / stringerMinister of internal Affairs of Ukraine Arsen Avakov was actually the second person in the state. He controls President Vladimir Zelensky in the negotiations in Paris. He also directs the gangs of nationalists on the streets. And in recent years increasingly suggests that Avakov before February 2020 will be headed by the Cabinet of Ministers. Would such a career himself “gray cardinal” — understood to RIA Novosti.
Interim Prime Minister
Zelensky has appointed Alexei Goncharuk, the Prime Minister temporarily. “If they (the Cabinet) is not right — wait until the end of the year. Who can not — will say goodbye”, — he promised.
Meanwhile, the rating falls Zelensky, seek down by the government and personally Goncharuk. In mid-December, one held in the center of Kiev rallies demanded a meeting with the Prime Minister. Protesters burned flares and shouted: “Goncharuk, come out!” And the activists are outraged only by duties on imported cars, then the rest of the population a list of claims to the head of the government is wider.
According to the Kyiv international Institute of sociology, in the fall the number of Ukrainians approving the work of the Cabinet has fallen from 44 to 37 percent. The majority of respondents do not see progress in the investigation of resonant criminal cases, they could not see and success to the new government in the housing sector.
Participants of the rally against the sale of land near the building of Verkhovna Rada in Giaveno if to reduce tariffs on “communal” really easy “Naftogaz” and “Gazprom” conduct intense negotiations, some high-profile cases Avakov recently helped move Zelensky: the names of the suspects in the murder of journalist Pavel Sheremet. They were veterans of the so-called ATO and volunteers — those who have traditionally supported the previous President Petro Poroshenko. And the main person involved may lead the investigation to the commander of the special operations Forces (SSO) Igor Lunev, also a supporter of Poroshenko.Source RIA Novosti in the ranks of the SSO admitted that the publication of names of suspects, his supporters took it as an attack against the opposition of the military, and in this case, the interests Avakov and Zelensky match.
Besides, the Minister is politically active not only inside the country — he accompanied the President to Paris for negotiations in the Normandy format. There Avakov stated authoritatively that Zelensky has not betrayed the interests of the country, then gathered in Kiev, another “Maidan” went.
All this has allowed the Director of the sociological service “Ukrainian barometer” Victor Nebozhenko to state that “the political center of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine is not the Prime Minister Goncharuk and the head of the interior Ministry Avakov.”
The protesters, No surrender! on Independence square in Kiev
The war with the “Sarasate”
To “continue career” Avakov pushing the circumstances, Ukrainian politicians, says former MP Oleg Tsarev. “The life of an official in Ukraine develops: either you’re in power, or against you, prosecute you for your “achievements”. Avakov, as have other members of the team Poroshenko, a lot of problems with the law. So he wants not just to stay in power, but to take the de jure second in command in the state”, — explains the interlocutor of RIA Novosti.
Tsarev believes that the post of Prime Minister Avakov will give the opportunity to close criminal cases, including embezzlement in the defense budget. “In addition, under Avakov, the smuggling, the amber — let me remind you that the border guards are subordinate to the interior Ministry, even the car theft and hostile takeovers”, lists Tsarev.
The situation for a breakthrough on a post of the head of the Cabinet there is a favorable, says the former MP. “Zelensky took a government of the people (the Ukrainian oligarch Viktor) Pinchuk (American financier George) Soros, gave them the post of Prime Minister, heads of “Ukroboronprom”, the National Bank, railroads, emphasizes Tsarev. But now Zelensky unhappy that “Sarasate” in the government and the faction did not listen, went out of control. So behind Avakov (businessman Igor) Kolomoisky and Zelensky United against the people of the Soros Foundation. Ukrainian President holds one thing: he understands that Avakov is a very strong player, with this premiere, it will remain the nominal head of state.”
And Avakov in a fight with “Sarasate” there is extra motivation for him to win the hardware fight is a matter of life and death, emphasizes the interlocutor of RIA Novosti.
Avakov has been and remains one of the few independent Ukrainian politicians, are not included in the oligarchic patronale regard, recalls the Deputy Director General of the national strategy Institute Alexander Kostin.
“He was not part of the team Poroshenko was not directly linked to any of the major Ukrainian oligarchs — said the source RIA Novosti. — Becoming a Minister on the basis of local agreements he entered with Poroshenko in the conflict system. Avakov has remained in office thanks primarily to the nationalists, close relationships with the Ukrainian establishment and big business, as well as the support of the Americans”.
Just Avakov as the interior Minister guaranteed honest as possible in Ukraine, the presidential elections and did not allow Poroshenko to go for bribery of voters and use other means to destabilize the situation, emphasizes the interlocutor of RIA Novosti.
“Poroshenko was ready for anything, even for a series of terrorist attacks inside the country, to kill the electoral agenda Zelensky and impose favorable scenario of war. It did not happen due to the lack of support of the US and, apparently for reasons of signals, including from the interior Ministry, the willingness to thwart such attempts,” expresses the opinion of Kostin.
According to him, the case of Sheremet — the first stage of the dismantling of clandestine power faction under the roof of the Main intelligence Directorate of the SSO and the Ministry of defense of Ukraine, which relied Poroshenko. “Now, against this force and formed an Alliance Zelensky — Avakov”, — the expert believes.
The President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky speaks after the report of the head of the National police of Sergey Knyazev in Kyiv on the investigation of the murder of journalist Pavel Sheremet© RIA Novosti / Stringera that Avakov is not acting situationally and strategically. The Prime Minister’s ambition is the application for the next presidential campaign, said the Kostin. However, Avakov is as yet no political platform and no media.
“We are seeing a paradox: a radical nationalist course in the mainstream, but the nationalists are unable to capitalize on it politically, while remaining outsiders. To rise further on the “food chain”, “Nazarus” Biletsky need to create at least some positive agenda and a strong political ally. They can become Avakov, experienced, but not included in the Ukrainian political Olympus figure,” — continues the thought Costin.
In addition, Zelensky himself said that he was on duty — for one term. Therefore, the political class and the bureaucracy, perceiving the President as a temporary worker, you can bet on Avakov, who over the years, the interior Ministry proved himself a skillful politician and an effective politician, Kostin adds.
Fools-battalion commanders already ate
A former activist of the Maidan and the participant of so-called anti-terrorist operation Alexander Medina recognizes that Avakov was able to create an efficient street structure that defines many of the processes in Ukrainian politics. “If not Avakov, Zelensky would have long ago carried out of the building on Bankova are taped to the chair and dumped in the trash. Maintaining the degree of tension is beneficial to the Minister of internal Affairs, he makes it clear to the President: without me these rascals would jump on you and devour,” — said the source RIA Novosti.
However, according to the poll, interior Minister in November became one of the leaders of the rating. The answers “do not trust” and “rather trust” in relation to the Minister chose a total of 69 percent of respondents. About the trust reported only 1.7 percent of respondents, 13.8 per cent trust with reservations. However, the ward head of the interior Ministry, the leader of the “Nazarus” Andrey Biletsky allowed myself to present ultimatums to the President. In July 2019, the Biletsky in the categorical form has demanded not to admit the teleconference between Russia and Ukraine. “You have a day (to meet the conditions),” — threatened the leader of the nationalists and the head of state.
The protesters for the resignation of interior Minister of Ukraine Arsen Avakov, in Kiev. 17 Nov 2018© RIA Novosti / stringer”the Electoral prospects of Avakov and his “Nazarus” rather sad — says Medina. — The interior Minister is the only representative of the party “national front” was able to stay in power. A “Case” is not helped at elections even merge with other nationalists, they gained votes a little more than a statistical error. The nationalists of the population perceived as a power resource, and as such politicians have had enough: fools combat navybirali in the previous Parliament looked at them, never want to.”All this, as suggested by Medina, make Avakov to think about whether he wants the post of Prime Minister. “Talk about the fact that the Minister of internal Affairs will be head of the Cabinet, go for a long time. But what will give him this post? And so it is de facto the second person in the state, flies to Paris with the President, decides issues that go far beyond the prerogatives of the interior Minister. Nowhere in the world, the Ministers of internal Affairs are not engaged in diplomacy! The whole country knows Avakov in the face, while not everyone can name the current Prime Minister,” said the Agency interlocutor.
He adds another argument against it: sooner or later the Prime Minister will hang all the dogs will devour over the decline in living standards for utility tariffs.