The Cabinet presented the draft budget for 2020. Photo: facebook.com/KabminUAthe intrigue with the budget for next year cleared up, though not to the end. On Tuesday, November 5, the Cabinet presented a rewrite of the second reading of the draft. Recall: the first version of the draft budget the Parliament harshly criticized, and adopted it in first reading with the condition that the document is fairly correct.
The new version of the government approved for another weekend. But the draft in the Parliament until today and has not appeared. But the Cabinet has organized an online presentation with colorful pictures. In fact, of them yet to judge that, in fact, changed for the second reading.
At first glance, the adjustments not so much. That was confirmed by the Minister of Finance Oksana Markarova. “The changes are not very large but significant. We increased expenditure of 15 billion, added to the salaries of teachers, the program “Affordable medicine”, culture, projects on airports and bridges. There are answers of the findings of the budget Committee,” he reported Markarova.
However, additional funding was much less than expected. For example, teachers who have recently protested, demanding higher wages, has promised growth of salaries, but according to his scheme. As a result, the gain will be significantly less than it was provided by a previous Cabinet Groisman.
Prime Minister Alexey Goncharuk gave to understand that now is not the time for frills. The following year, the Ukrainians will have to live within our means, because “the country is in a difficult financial situation”, plus facing peak payments on foreign debts.
At the same time on separate articles, the money is still found. The second reading of the draft again appeared subvention on socio-economic development of the regions in the amount of 2 billion UAH. Just due to the money mazhoritarshchik “fed” their districts, and they are traditionally subject to bargaining. Threw the money to the security forces.
“Country” understood that even rewrote the draft budget for the second reading.
Recall: feeding the first version of the budget to the Parliament, the government Goncharuk took the best practices of our predecessors. The result was in fact “the budget Groisman,” for which the Cabinet harshly criticized. Officials explained the development of its “breakthrough” of the budget, which would ensure the promised Goncharuk explosive GDP growth of 40% over 5 years, just not had the time. And promised to fix the second reading.
A separate list of tasks to the Cabinet of Ministers gave the budget Committee of the Parliament. In particular, members were asked to consider increasing some taxes (excise duties, environmental, preferential VAT on some products, rental fee, etc.), as well as the subsistence level before the actual performance. In the draft budget for next year was laid 2,1 thousand hryvnias, whereas the real cost of living, according to the calculations of the relevant Committee not less than 4,2 thousand.
And apparently both of these tasks, the Cabinet failed. So, Goncharuk said that next year is not planned any new taxes. First, they say, you need to run the economy, so that there were “dozens and hundreds” of new businesses, and then change the taxes. What exactly is written in the draft, is unclear. The idea is there should be an increase in excise duties on cigarettes and alcohol, as Ukraine revises a pre-agreed schedule. In addition, the Parliament has several bills providing for the revision of tax rates, in particular, project No. 1210, where provides increase to several times the rent for iron ore.
But the main thing — the project is likely not spelled out a radical change in fiscal policy. “It’s disappointing more than anything. Will not tax reform, the fight against shadow economy, tax lobbying financial-industrial groups and the “contraband—stop” customs. Would otherwise be scheduled for more revenues from these activities, as, for example, only the anti-smuggling could give up to $ 5 billion,” says economist Alex Kush.
This means that neither for business nor for the potential investor cardinally will not change anything.
With the cost of living even worse. Goncharuk said that they took the job of the budget Committee and the budget will have a real living wage by 4.2 thousand hryvnias. But not next year, but in the next 3-5 years. If by the time the reforms will have the effect of the Ukrainian economy is running at full.
That is, the President promised Zelensky, the end of poverty clearly is postponed — ironically experts.
“After 5 years in our reality is actually never. It is not clear what the time will be inflation. It’s possible that 4.2 thousand hryvnia will cost less than the current 2 thousand”, — says head of Department of Federation of trade unions Oleg Pendzin.
But innovations on the subsistence level are all the same — it will loose all social benefits, and hundreds of them, ranging from fines for traffic violations and ending child benefit and unemployment. The corresponding project, as reported in the Ministry of social policy is ready and will be submitted to the nearest Cabinet. It is expected that social benefits will be considered on a “base value”, which will set the government.
“If all is accepted, no matter what the cost of living will lay in the budget— at least 10 thousand. Because this figure has virtually nothing to depend on,” — said Kusch. Plus — this will allow the authorities to revise the subsistence minimum amount, but to freeze social benefits.
Sale of state property and “armed bandits”
Presenting the new budget, the Prime Minister Goncharuk called it “budget efficiency”. They say, no tax increase will not, and to increase spending will be due to the redistribution of income. In particular, he said that the project envisages the wish of the President Zelensky on the reduction of officials by 10%. All of the administrations dismiss more than 18 thousand people, and possibly even more.
Expenditure budget, compared with the option for the first reading, rose 15 billion, and revenue by 13 billion Is fairly modest adjustments, even pessimists predicted increase in the two articles to 17-20 billion, “it Turns out that changes in the budget affect more than 1% of the total budget (about $ 1.2 trillion hryvnia), but it’s actually within the statistical error; No radically new budget failed,” says economist Viktor Skarshevsky.
“There are no new industrial policy, programs to attract investment. This means that no breakthrough in the economy, we will continue to lose to plague the value chain,” added Alex Kush.
Goncharuk said: the main thing next year is payments on external debt. That they will take a hefty portion of revenues — more than 140 billion hryvnia. So this year you need to hold out and prepare base for future growth.
To increase revenues, enough not only to pay down debt, plan for the privatization (6 billion and 6 billion from low), the legalization of gambling ($3 billion), the national investment projects (1.8 billion), etc. not a word said about land reform, and it is estimated the foliage, at first could not give less than 5 billion
“This one-time revenue and is not included in the budget. The money could go to reducing the debt burden — said Goncharuk.
“But if the budget will not receive anything from the earth, then why do it to sell,” says Kusch. Also, in his opinion, the figures on privatization. For large-scale privatization 6 billion — too little, so that’s actually the price of a large object level “Tsentrenergo” or HMO.
While waiting in line for privatization — a few dozen have been taken, including data and Ukpochta. For small privatization 6 billion too many. “The first wave got 2 billion, and everything of value was gone,” — said Kusch.
Tablets, school and excursions
According to some social items money add — promised Goncharuk. In particular, the claimed increase in funding for health, education and culture.
So, medicine will receive 113.3 billion UAH, which is 10% more than this year and 5 billion than in the draft for the first reading, but still clearly not up to 5% of GDP, as required by the doctors.
The “extra” money targeted to reform emergency aid (1.9 billion) and the program “Affordable medicine”. It is planned to purchase 470 “Fast” and build 25 new emergency, as the Prime Minister heard reports that people are often simply not get to hospitals.
The program “Affordable medicine” will receive three times more money 3.1 billion. The real needs for providing free medicines experts estimate that 10-15 billion, that is, with medicines will be a little better, but fundamentally nothing will change.
For the purchase of medicines will provide 9.7 billion, a third more than this year, on the treatment of Ukrainians abroad, and especially transplantation, 1.09 billion vs 689 million this year.
The main intrigue in the new draft budget was the expenditure on education. We will remind: for the first reading laid 128,7 billion. And does not take into account the increase of salaries of teachers in 20-70% of that in the last days of the prescribed previous Cabinet of Ministers with its decision. On review of teachers ‘ salaries, according to estimates of the Ministry, you need at least 5.5 billion.
And recently, teachers were taken aback — they’d take and the Supplement (for the prestige of teacher’s work, checking notebooks, replacement, etc.). This news triggered a massive teacher’s rebellion.
In the draft budget for the second reading of the education promise 145.1 billion hryvnia. This is about 9 billion more than for the first reading and 23 billion than this year.
But directly on teachers ‘ salaries will receive only 2.2 billion And increase their will not “decree Groisman”, and under the new scheme. Firstly, allowances will be awarded to young teachers, and secondly, the funding is “based on the actual number of students”, in third, will give subventions to the regions to enable them to pay a premium for the prestige of the teaching profession.
But, most likely, the army will reduce teachers, and rural schools, which, according to Goncharuk, do not give a very good education, “optimize”.
“Requested 5.1 billion for three categories of teachers — new teachers and teachers of kindergartens and masters of inservice training of vocational school. But, given the limited possibilities of the budget, it is proposed to pay only to young professionals in the amount of 10 living wages with experience less than 9 years. But the teachers wanted to increase salaries in accordance with the decision of the Cabinet, what would be needed from 19 billion to 26 billion Was the Commission President at a meeting on the preparation of the budget for the second reading to reduce costs on the maintenance of officials by 10%. Perhaps the tools that will be able to save money allocated to education. To exit while a further 5, 1 billion”, — explained the “Country” market expert education lawyer Andrew Black.
Instead, students will be able to go on trips. For the first time planned programme of mobility of young people, with funding of 500 million hryvnia.
Another 240 million the state spends on the development of the tourist potential of Ukraine.
Subsidies and pensions
The head of the Department Federation of trade unions Oleg Penzin said that the draft budget was not originally social, and has not gotten to the second reading.
And it’s not just that the Cabinet is technically gone from the topic of a living wage. For example, the costs remained the same — 48 billion UAH, and it is even less than this year, although the actual need is estimated by experts at $ 70 billion
Thus, it is interesting that the Prime Minister, commenting on the issue of subsidies, said that will help all who have a communal goes more than 15% of income. What really surprised the experts, as Cabinet recently changed this threshold, increasing it from 15% to 20%. “Whether Potter misspoke, or did not in the subject,” Skarshevsky said.
Thus, according to Alexei Kushch, as rates will only increase, without subsidies may remain to 600 thousand families. In the Ministry say that compensation for communal given to those who really need them, but check the recipients will be.
There will be a special growth and pensions. Goncharuk said that pensions will grow, “but only slightly”. That is, will a standard indexing, the minimum pension will increase by only 150 hryvnia, and only in the spring.
But the state will take care of those over 80. Premiums and care of elderly Ukrainians will grow by 40%, that’s $ 670 USD per month. For this purpose in the budget of 806 million.
Gain promise the disabled, combatants, orphans. According to Goncharuk, next year Ukraine will begin to abandon the traditional children’s homes, with an emphasis on the development of orphanages of family type.
Roads, the army and “Deputy wishlist”
Although in the Cabinet and complain about the lack of money, to certain articles of the funds still found.
So, significantly increased funding for several infrastructure projects. On the road promise 73,7 billion, almost 20 billion more than this year. On the reconstruction of airports will give five times more than now — more than 1 billion and will double financing for road safety (this is primarily a system of video fixing of infringements) — to 3.17 billion.
However, as the ex-Deputy Minister of infrastructure Alexander Kava, “is a pittance that will not give a noticeable result.” “On the road there is 70 billion and 4 billion loans to MFIs of them to pay off debt go 5.6 billion on security Fund 3 billion subsidy for local roads and $ 22 billion In the repair and maintenance of state roads will be only UAH 38 billion. For example, for the completion of highway N-31 Dnepropetrovsk – Reshetilovka – Highway M-03 to 14 billion, and on completion of Zaporizhia bridge 9 billion. For example, in neighboring Poland, where state roads only 19 thousand km (in Ukraine – 46,5 thousand km) each year on their repair stands out in terms of not 150-160 billion UAH”, — he explained, “the Country”.
According to the article “defence and security” is scheduled 245,8 billion hryvnia, which is about 5.5% of GDP.
Of these, the defense Ministry will receive 130 billion, and MIA — 93 billion For the defense the main priority will be the increased production and procurement of weapons, — explained in the relevant ministries. So, state guarantees will grow from 3 billion to 9 billion 2.4 billion will receive the Ministry of economic development for the state order for production of ammunition.
The interior Ministry, according to zaministra Anton Gerashchenko, will send extra money to increase police salaries by 10% of the apartment (mortgage on preferential terms for 2 thousand families), another batch of French “helicopters Avakov” and the construction of 20 new ships of the border guard in partnership with the same French.
Interestingly, in the interval between the first and second reading again got some money for the Deputy “wishlist” — on the socio-economic development of regions will allocate 2 billion UAH. Goncharuk said that this, they say, insisted MPs. But the Fund itself will pass in conducting the Ministry of economic development. Plus narodnye elected officials will not receive money just because they have to “protect the project”.
However, on the eve of the voting of the budget for the first reading in Parliament, a scandal broke out because it turned out that the money for the district divided “unfair” — whereas they, the deputies received several million others got a measly hundred thousand. On this occasion offended the people’s representatives even promised to boycott the budget. To settle the conflict then it was possible only after Prime Goncharuk promised to “equitable distribution”. There is pre-agreement that will be distributed to all districts equally. But how is actually not yet clear. It is not excluded that it will become another bargaining chip in passing the second reading.