History suggests that Republicans will take over both houses of Congress in 2022. If that happens, you can say goodbye to democracy. The only thing that is going to prevent this from happening is massive, and I mean massive turnout in the election of Democrats already in office and new members of both the House and Senate. Are you up to the task?
Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell
Since the Civil War, midterm elections have allowed the president’s party to gain ground in the House of Representatives only three times, and they were in the single digits. The last by-elections have been typical: in 2006, with Republican George W. Bush in the White House, his party lost 31 seats in the House. Under Democrat Barack Obama, his party lost 63 seats in 2010 and then 13 seats in 2014. Under Donald Trump, in 2018, Republicans lost 41 seats. Overall, since World War II, losses have an average of 27 seats in the house.
Next year, if Republicans win just five House seats, Rep. Kevin McCarthy or some other right-wing ideologue will become the Speaker of the House, giving the Republican Party control of all committees and legislation. . In the Senate, where the historical midterm pattern has been similar, a Republican gain of just one seat will reinstate Mitch McConnell as Senate Majority Leader.
To avoid such disastrous results, Democrats would have to replicate what happened the last time the president’s party did not lose seats in the House or Senate in a midterm election, two years after Bush entered the White House. . The odds are against you, as an electoral analyst …