© REUTERS / Toby MelvilleBritain again (third time in the last four years) is elected by the Parliament. Almost all polls show that the Conservative party will regain the absolute majority in Westminster, lost in the elections of 2017. Although the closer the date of the vote of these predictions became more restrained. So, three weeks before the election, it was assumed that the tories will get a pretty solid 50-60 in most places. A forecast, published by the sociological company YouGov 24 hours before opening of polling stations, have reduced this figure to 28 places, which may be Boris Johnson critical.However, it should be noted that the predictions of British sociologists often do not come true. And this is not only their fault. In the United Kingdom political campaigning is allowed and even supported in every way until the polls close. And therefore, many of the party’s emphasis in the campaign on the last day when you need to pull it to his voters to vote.In addition, the huge role still played by the print media (political campaigning on television and radio in Britain is very limited). And so much depends on the covers of Newspapers in recent days and the actual voting day. It is clear that none of this sociologists can not predict.A much more accurate indicator — no data fresh poll, and cover the circulation paper in the country of The Sun. Who supports its owner Rupert Murdoch, he almost always wins. This year the newspaper clearly supported the Conservative party.
We should not forget that in Britain the majority system of elections. Accordingly, the political party, which enjoys great popularity in the whole country, but lost a few counties to competitors, might get much less seats in Parliament. There have been in history and events (like the election in January 1910), when the party lost the elections, won a majority in the house of Commons.This is especially true for the current expression — a record number of undecided voters (up to a quarter of the population) and the number of people willing to switch to another party (to 40%). According to some experts, the fate of the election may decide the undecided 41 thousand citizens, only 36 out of 650 districts. It is for these voices and these districts and turned a desperate struggle on the eve of December 12.
Indicative timetable travel election of Boris Johnson. For three days he visited five districts of Central and Northern England related to the so-called red belt (proletarian regions, traditionally voting for the labour party), but at the same time supported on the Brexit referendum. Such voter was targeted to the tories and that is why withdrawal from the EU they did the main theme of his campaign.Labour, by contrast, tried to move Brexit on the back burner, focusing on the crisis of the public health system (NHS). In the last days of the campaign they are particularly active in investigating a story of four boys who suspected pneumonia admitted to the hospital of Leeds, where he was no beds and it just laid on the floor. Johnson suffered particular criticism for the fact that they refused to look at photos of the boy and to respond to the incident. How many percent of the votes, he is clearly after that, you will miss.In addition, the labour party have thrown considerable forces and means for agitation in the County of Johnson (Uxbridge, once an elite suburb of London). He finally won the election there with a relatively small lead over the rival ten percent. And now sociologists have studied the mood in the County saying, “He should worry”. Left-wing activists even launched a campaign to register homeless people on the boat that gives them the right to vote — of course, against Boris. If Johnson is defeated, it will be the first such case to the acting Prime Minister since 1906, when Arthur Balfour lost his district. And certainly never in the history of British parliamentarism was not to be the party of the incumbent Prime Minister won and he lost.
Conservatives launched against major rivals violent campaign, accusing them of anti-Semitism. Party Jeremy Corbyn have focused on the rapid demographic changes of Albion, and it was joined by many immigrants from the Middle East and South Asia (i.e. the Muslim regions of the planet). Some of them are really allowed himself anti-Semitic remarks. But the conservative press tried to label xenophobes on the whole party and personally the Corbin, constantly forcing him to take responsibility for this problem.In response, the labour party has not found anything the best how to make anti-Russian campaign, tried to present the ruling party as “agents of the Kremlin”. On the grounds that its sponsors have and fugitive oligarchs, has long left Russia, and naturalized in Britain (for example, Alexander Temerko, we have held in the Yukos case). The labour newspaper the Observer even let myself on the front page a headline: “Former KGB agent met with Boris Johnson”. In the article itself was nothing sensational, just reported that one of the parties Johnson crossed with the Russian businessman Alexander Lebedev. Owns several British Newspapers, and he has repeatedly visited various parapolitical party, which was attended by British politicians. But the “sensation” of this kind it was necessary to inflate anything on the eve of elections.However, the tories did not remain in debt. When Corbin presented to the public the secret information about trade negotiations between Washington and London, which supposedly has been said about the deplorable fate of the NHS, the conservative press in exactly the same way out of nothing fanned conspiracy theories that the leak specifically for the opposition organized the ubiquitous Russian hackers in the direction of the Kremlin. That is, it turns out that “agents of Moscow” at the elections and became the tories and the labour party.
No wonder famous London kremlinology Ben Judah published in The Washington Post article with the characteristic title: “Russia has already won the British elections.” No matter who wins, “agents of the Kremlin” will rule Albion, and other “useful idiots of Russia” will go to the opposition. Why should British voters generally go to the polls if the election outcome is known?But, of course, the anti-Russian agenda was just a background, causing a rather satirical comments, so the public already fed up with this topic after Skrobala. The main question for many in Britain, and beyond is only one thing: what is the fate of Brexit after the election? Potential winner Johnson campaigned on a solemn promise to bring the country out of the EU at any price next year. Actually, that’s what he was up to risky for him early election to quell interractionsbuy opposition from within his faction and take control.
However, we must remember that until recently the same Johnson solemnly swore to withdraw Britain from the EU until 31 October this year, or “die in a ditch”. In the end, Brexit is not provided, and the ditch is not honored with his presence. So another solemn promise on the same subject should also be taken with substantial skepticism.Vladimir Kornilov