Andrey Ermak in London says the Donbass region and the Channel meet. A frame from the videoToday, the assistant Vladimir Zelensky Andrey Ermak lifted the veil on what compromise Ukraine in Paris on 9 December.
Ermak, the President oversees the Minsk theme and generally reputed to be “moderate” in the environment ze.
According to him, Zelensky ready to begin to implement the Minsk agreements in terms of securing the special status of Donbass in the Constitution. However, on Bank call this process otherwise – decentralization. And do a lot of other reservations.
But the fact that the additional powers of individual regions will be spelled out in the Constitution, in fact is sensational for the Ukrainian agenda – the most hostile to the idea of the autonomy of Donetsk and Lugansk. Because of the inclusion of such things in the basic law not so long ago repudiated and the President himself.
What is the meaning of the statement Ermak before the meeting of the Normandy format – versed “Country”.
That said assistant Zelensky
From the mouth of Andrei Yermak, who spoke today at a meeting in London organised by Chatham House and “Ukrainian prism”, was made three main points.
First – on the changes to the Constitution.
“Ukraine is ready to fulfill the position of “Minsk agreements”, which provides for constitutional reform in terms of decentralization,” – said the assistant Zelensky.
The amendment of the Constitution, referred to, will relate to the transfer of power in Ukraine as a whole. But there are also some provisions relating to uncontrolled Donbass.
“Some regions of Donetsk and Luhansk region can get additional powers. But it never will mean that it will be federalization or some sort of autonomy”, – he added.
Second – and most important – on the special status of Donbass. Ermak said that Zelensky will extend the already existing law. And after the New year sit down to write a new one.
Third – about what will happen if anything to negotiate will not work. This, according to assistant Zelensky, will bring to life a plan B: maximum enclosure of Ukraine from uncontrolled Donbass. That is “the wall”.
However, this scenario Ermak draws, if Russia will not agree to the cease-fire and exchange of prisoners. Which, according to the Minister of foreign Affairs Vadym Prystayko has already been agreed by the parties for foogo communiqué.
Ermak also proposed to introduce in the Minsk group representatives under the control of Donbass, apparently, that they balanced the separatists and deprived them of the monopoly to speak on behalf of the whole region. It can be read as a response to claims of “DNR” the whole area and not only borders ORDO. But by and large, is an attempt to change the configuration of Minsk in its favor – that is unlikely opponents from Moscow and “republics”.
What is the meaning of the statement Ermak
In General, reservations and clarifications, which may suggest that a compromise solution to the Ukraine actively don’t like, Ermak sounded quite. Declaring the implementation of the Minsk agreements, he called them obsolete. That is, the President will be in Paris one way or another to offer them to reconsider.
A certain shape of this revision are already visible. Judging by recent statements Zelensky, we will talk about what the election on uncontrolled territories should be preceded by a demilitarization of the “DNR” and “LNR” – the withdrawal of illegal from the point of view of Ukraine, the armed forces. That is, the dissolution of the “militia Republic.”
This, of course, is completely contrary to the Minsk-2 and unlikely to be accepted by Russia, which, though not recognized the separatists, but considers them a separate party to the conflict.
However, it is necessary to look that in the end you can lay under the wording about the withdrawal of troops. Options may be many – in which some groups will be formally disarmed, and some will go, for example, in joint patrols with the Ukrainian police and the OSCE.
However, more important history with a special status – and until it’s cleared up for the elections to come will be impossible. It is very important that ze decided to extend the acting – and it is quite acceptable to Moscow – the law.
“If he tried to adopt a new law, it was a high probability that it would not have taken, and the old would end with effect from 1 January.
And in the end, in fact, the Minsk agreement would be denounced.
Now, if Parliament will vote for the extension (and, most likely, will vote), then this threat will not be.
Again – this change of position (not a new law, and the extension of the old) is very important. At least the Minsk process since the new year, in this case, just will not stop,” concludes the telegram-channel “Policy of the Country.”
However, after the New year, says Ermak, Zelensky will submit the changes to the act. What will they be?
If you believe the earlier the President said it may withdraw several Autonomous rights of the Donbass, inherent in current law. And perhaps in this view propose in the Constitution.
But it’s an extremely unlikely scenario. As the separatists and Moscow then from the process of settlement will be released. More precisely accused of such withdrawal, Ukraine. Hence the meaning to change the Constitution disappears.
That is really to establish the basic law can only be something very close to the wording of the special status that exists now. And then, from the words of Ermak is possible to make two assumptions:
1. Zelensky rewritten the law “On local self-government of individual regions” to be in line with the spirit and letter of Minsk-2. And in this form will be included in the Constitution.
2. Statement by the assistant ze is an element of bargaining. On Bank realize that to change the Constitution, as required by Minsk, most likely will not. But give the opponent to understand that you are ready to think in this direction, if Moscow softens stance and move away from “legacy” of the Minsk agreements.
What will be offered will show in Paris. Moreover, it is possible that actual arrangement will become clear only after ze will submit to the Parliament amendments to the law on the special status.
Given that it is unlikely it will be made something that is not consistent with those that status will affect that we’ll see what really agreed at the summit of the Quartet.
Even more telling will be the abandonment of the law as it is – and while the preparations for the elections in the Donbass. This will mean that ze was unable to push for a revision of the Minsk-2 in terms of autonomy of individual regions.
“The Constitution is yet a distant prospect.
The main thing now is the elections and after giving him a special status (the same formula Steinmeier). Here the decisions on this question all depends. And while the convergence of the parties here do not hear anything.
And according to these points and put forward their ultimatums of “anticapitalist” – no elections before the transfer of border control. What Russia and the “Republic” will not go.
But wait in Paris. And news from it”, – wrote in Facebook chief editor of “Country” Igor Guzhva.