With all the ambiguities related to the new format of lottery established exceptionally by the national hockey League (NHL), the supporters of the Montreal canadiens do not know too much what to expect.
Now that the chances of the CH to pick Alexis Lafrenière increased from 6% to 1.9%, according to the calculations of the expert of The Athletic Dom Luszczyszyn, is it better to wish for a victory against the Pittsburgh Penguins at the tour qualifier?
If a “team ghost” is drawn during the lottery, the chances of the Habs change significantly in the event of a defeat. Difficult to untangle it all!
On the eve of D-day, which will provide a little more clarity to the amateurs montreal, TVASports.it sets out the different possible scenarios for the CH. To note that the phase 1 of the lottery will be shown on our chain from 20h, Friday, June 26.
No letter spell
The general manager Marc Bergevin would then have the certainty that his team repêchera to the eighth rank if it makes up arms against the tape of Sidney Crosby.
This draft is rich in talent and extremely difficult to predict. The possibilities would be so many. Jamie Drysdale, Jack Quinn, Lucas Raymond, Alexander Holtz, Jake Sanderson, Yaroslav Askarov, Anton Lundell, Cole Perfetti and Marco Rossi are hopes that may be available.
In all cases, the CH would have the opportunity to select a great player.
A letter comes out
A second phase will be required! Depending on the outcome of the first phase, the first, second, or third rank will be drawn between the eight teams that failed to win their series two of three. Each of them will have equal opportunity to win the choice in the game (12.5 per cent).
What are the best chances beforehand, but it is far from the cup to the lips, especially when you consider that the traditional format provided in the CH probability to pick in the top 3 at the height of 19%.
In the event of a defeat against the Penguins, the CH will speak to the ninth if he leaves empty-handed a second phase composed of a draw.
Two letters go out
This scenario is interesting in that the number of teams decreases after the first draw, which increases the probabilities of the seven formations are still in the abacus. In the second draw, the chances of the CH – if it has not been generally successful – would be of 14.3%.
It is likely a cumulative 26.8% to pick in the top 3. In return, the CH repêchera to the 10th place if it is not selected in this scenario.
Three letters go out
The chances of this happening are extremely low : the specialist in The Athletic Dom Luszczyszyn estimated to be 1%, approximately. Still, supporters of the CH is questionneraient seriously on the interest of winning against the Penguins, because this time, the organization would have the cumulative probabilities of 43.5% to pick in the top 3 because of the three draws.
It is almost one chance in two of having the privilege to choose Alexis Lafrenière, Quinton Byfield, Tim Stützle, or Jamie Drysdale. Some recruiters believe that Sanderson is a better defender than Drysdale, so we could add his name into the equation.
Once again, it is a double-edged knife, because if the CH does not win any of the three prints of the second phase, we’ll be down in 11th position.
The CH wins against the Penguins
The good news : the HP series for the first time since 2017! The bad? It repêchera the 16th… in the best of scenarios. If he reaches the final, it will slip until the 28th level. However, keep in mind that, for that to happen, the CH should win not one, not two, but three series (one two three and two four-of-seven). Because, remember, a win against the Penguins is only a ticket to the real knock-out tournament consists of 16 formations.
To attempt to strike a great blow, and to ignore its position less advantageous, the CH could capitalize on the talented Hendrix Lapierre, who has seen his rating drop due to his medical file. A winger of the caliber of Seth Jarvis, who has been more productive than Leon Draisalt at the same age in the Western League, would also be very interesting.
Jacob Perreault, the son of Yanic, is to be treated, who has one of the best shots in the draft. Brendan Brisson, the offspring of the influential agent Pat Brisson, would also be part of the conversation.
Seen as a potential hidden card at the end of the first round, Mavrik Bourque has a potential intriguing. Noel Gunler and Lukas Reichel would be other hopes that should be taken into account.
As it is a cuvée with a lot of depth, there’s a way to make a great find.