Macron shouted that everyone can see, but afraid to say: the king is naked. Moreover, flashing bare ass, he is moving in the wrong direction, writes the author. Europe needs to understand what she wants to achieve in confrontation with the Kremlin. Theses Rules are ambiguous, but he asked uncomfortable questions that it’s time to find the answers.
In a sense, everything has become so democratic and transparent as never before: we don’t need any Wikileaks to look at the dirty kitchen of the world politics. Trump blackmailing Zelensky, saying that will help the Ukrainian President in the war with Russia, if he would find dirt on his family political rival. Zelensky is closed in itself and does not know where to look, especially in “private” conversation with his us counterpart managed to say all about Merkel. His patron, the oligarch Igor Kolomoisky is enraged and declares that if so, he will make sure that Ukraine once again turned to Russia. Putin is already possible to do nothing.
Makron in a sense, doing the same thing that Kolomoisky. Once trump believes NATO is a pointless organization and is hostile to the entire European Union, and in particular to his main driving force, to Berlin, then the French should remind Anglo-Saxons on what they always more afraid of: the unification of the continent, the emergence of a single choir in France, Germany and Russia. If this team will join the Central Europe, disappear the last obstacle to the operation of the unit with a German engine, Russian resources and all other countries, which is the only one (along with China) could become a threat to the global dominance of the United States
So you can interpret the interview of Macron edition of “the Economist”: the brain, there is no NATO, he died, then to be engaged in a parallel military structure, that is, a European initiative response. Poland is not invited back, and Italy joined the project only when Salvini with his anti-liberal rhetoric has ceased to play on the Tiber the first violin. While it is narrow, devoid of specifics, and rather symbolic initiative, but Makron attaches great importance and makes clear that it may take command.
The intimidation worked. At the NATO summit trump portrayed deeply shocked and accused Him that his statements were offensive, as if not remembering why broke all the fuss, who said that the Alliance is no longer needed, who complained about the accession of some kind of Montenegro and risked one of the flanks, taking the dirty game in Syria.
Now all rushed to defend NATO, and if taken sounding statements about the unity and cohesion seriously, you can decide what this organization is as strong as ever. The dispute is resolved, trump and macron shook hands, Eastern Europe was assured that her fears East understand one word the Alliance regained its former greatness. One tries not to think about that if Suvalki isthmus will appear “green men” in military uniform without insignia, it is quite possible that we will see the picture which was outlined in an interview with the weekly “Politics” Fukuyama: Putin denies it, but trump will convene a Commission that will begin an endless investigation, figuring out if they are connected with Russia and what they are doing.
So far, however, svezheasfaltirovannaya armor NATO sparkles and looks impressive. Of course, if you do not pay attention to scratches made by Turkey for blackmailing the allies that may not approve of the plans of assistance to Central Europe in case of Russian attack. But in any case was better than it was. The Makron could stand in the way of “Winkelried of Nations”, which got itself into a spear, and again against the will of the Alliance rallied it, if not for the fact that, traditionally skeptical about America France attempted to seize the initiative at a time when the U.S. focused on the Pacific region.
Bosnia: European laboratory
In General, the actions of Macron easy to understand. Germany is behaving cautiously, knowing that the legacy of the past does not allow her to officially play the role of leader of Europe, and the UK has already forgiven. Who else is left? Not mired in its own folly, Poland. The French President decided to shout what everyone sees, but are afraid to speak even in a whisper: the king is naked. Moreover, flashing bare ass, he is moving in the wrong direction.
Take, for example, Bosnia, which he called a time bomb. The Sarajevo press has boiled over with indignation and reminded Paris that the there are problems with social stability, pointing to the revolt of the “yellow jackets” and Islamic terrorists who act in France more than in Bosnia.
All of this really, but every time I enter the country even with a Serbian, at least on the Croatian side, a man in an official uniform joyfully hastens to inform me that Bosnia does not exist. In the Croatian part heard complaints built around a Bosnian Muslim state project, to take part in which have the Croats, although they do not see any reason to do it. In the Republika Srpska, with the same speeches are Serbs. This is not the opinion of some nationalists, separatists or people who could be called radicals. It is present everywhere, as the bread, like the air that you breathe there. Every Bosnian Serb, adult and child, knows does he have in common with Sarajevo — a portrait of Tito in the houses and love the group “Bijelo dugme”. And besides that absolutely nothing.
But Bosnia and Kosovo were the flagship projects of the West in the Balkans. This is evident even in the distance just look at their emblems and flags. They reflect the European aesthetics, as in the arms of the Soviet republics and members of the Eastern bloc, reflected the aesthetics of the Soviet. There were spikes and transformers on a background of mountains, the bounties of nature, sickles and hammers, and here — stars, a blue heel cap and maybe the contour of the country, as the post-Soviet flag of Belarus. No national symbols, eagles, fangs, claws, anything that could benefit the nationalists. They, however, have created their own symbols in Kosovo Serbs and Albanians live under a double-headed eagle (one under the white, second black), and in Bosnia national flag post only local Muslims. The Croats and the Serbs, who have their own national state where they live, use their own banners (of course, larger than the size of the Bosnian). Bosnia and Kosovo were to become the laboratories, in places where reigns the perfect European agreement, but the Nations will live peacefully side by side. The hatred was so strong that it was limited to large-scale hypocrisy: “everything is OK”.
On the other hand, how such a laboratory could be successful if and in Bosnia, and in Kosovo the West made economic development, equalization of chances or the formation of a stable middle class, and bloating of the bureaucracy and administrative bodies, as well as the introduction of more viable solutions? Their symbol is the system of presidency, in which three together control the state of a person should belong to different peoples that only deepens the split on ethnic grounds, and does not allow to overcome it.
If Bosnia or Kosovo was at least the focus of Western standards of life if I went there for work, if they promoted the Western model in the Balkans as Georgians in the Caucasus! Georgia became something of a role model, when due to the reforms Saakashvili, she began to stand out on the common post-Soviet background, consisting of its neighbors. On the contrary, Bosnia and Kosovo residents are leaving EN masse, who have to leave the Bosnian and Kosovo mountains for bread, just for the sake of bread.
Why in this case these States exist? Then, to demonstrate the failure of the Western project in the Balkans? If so, the idea was a success. In conversations with citizens of Serbia and Macedonia often hear such words: can the EU make sense a little? Look at Bosnia, this is just ridiculous.
Russia betrays the Balkans
Of course, criticizing the Bosnian stabilization, it’s hard not to fall into the trap, prepared in the Balkans Russia: it supports Serbia, which he gladly took under his wing Serbs from Bosnia and Kosovo, if it had not violated the international order. However, it can take a risk, to break it, but where then to go? To Russia? Belgrade knows that there he can look for nothing: far, little money, and even Putin is a great man, with whom you can take pictures when things take a different turn, he will be cynical, calculating player. In a very discreet interview to magazine “Spiegel”, the Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic was forced to admit that the Russians spied on their allies and friends the Serbs, and were in the same position as Zelensky because of trump.
In fact, Moscow can do little in the region, even if both he and she we want to. Macedonian right-wing forces, who feared the Albanian minority and did not want to give in to their blackmailing of Greece, which required to change the name of their country, could theoretically appeal to Russia, but that was to be done? Send Russian troops to Macedonia, to accept it in its Union with Belarus, to throw some money (which is getting smaller) for the creation of the Slavic version of finding wakanda — the African military and technological powers from the comics?
Facing the same dilemma, is Serbia. She feels that the EU is betraying her, but for Russia it is also not an option. If she was, neither Skopje nor Belgrade for a long time would not hesitate. Times the Balkans can not count on Europe or to Moscow, then to whom do they rely? Muslims, Albanians and Bosnians can, at worst, to refer to Turkey, but again, the question arises how and in what format?
Macedonia ultimately allowed Greece to humiliate himself (and humiliation in the Balkans, don’t forget) and added its name to the definition of “North” and that many residents found insulting. For many years she was considered a leader in introducing systemic change, which was demanded by the EU, but recently Makron blocked further accession negotiations with Albania.
Hegemony in Europe
Some see this as another attempt to suck up to Putin. In the end the Frenchman, as he himself admitted in an interview with “the Economist”, trying to use Orban and his intermediation to establish contact with the Kremlin, and also because the Hungarian Prime Minister maintains relations with Warsaw, Poland. In this context, it becomes clear why some time ago, Orban said that he “understands the concerns of the poles and the Baltic States, which should get some special guarantees of security,” at the same time making the clause necessary, however, to normalize relations with Russia. Macron in an interview repeated this phrase almost word for word. About the same, just not mentioning guarantees long said Putin and Medvedev, which draw the prospects for the emergence of the “single Eurasian security zone from Vladivostok to Lisbon”.
Interestingly, under the thumb of a hegemon will be Poland (and the fact that she will be under someone’s fifth, will become inevitable if it does not create a land between the seas, about which so much talking): so bad if German, not so bad if American. European would be preferred, but the Russian… In Poland, some are sounding the alarm, others much less, shrug their shoulders, believing that everything is empty fears the poles and the Baltic States, also adopted the chatter of the Macron to heart. On the other hand, can before the second coming to avoid the “what to do with Russia,” and “beyond sanctions”?
In the interview that stirred up the world, macron spoke of the approach, devoid of naivety: he blamed Russia for authoritarianism, stressed that, along with Islamic fundamentalism is primarily threatens European values, noted that the process of involvement of Moscow in the orbit of the influences of the West (in the opinion of the French President, who inevitably will get there, fearing to become a vassal of China) will take at least a decade.
Perhaps he was saying all this only because it is supposed to, and actually thought about Moscow and St. Petersburg with warmth, however, regardless of this, our naked European-NATO king one had to wonder what he wants to achieve in confrontation with Russia. Donbass — this is the point where both sides don’t know what to do next. Ukraine (which, of course, no one will say officially) wants to get in their doors Russian boots, and Russia is not going to violate international law and risk the introduction of new sanctions, especially after she had invested a lot of money in the integration of the Crimea (soon it can expect new costs in connection with vassalization Belarus).
The Crimea situation seems to be seems to be clear: it’s just a Ukrainian territory, which occupied Moscow, but Putin can not give it to her (it’s as if the Second Polish Republic decided to return the annexed Vilna, Lithuania): the capital will shake accusations of treason, and nobles may in the end render disobedience. In addition, the inhabitants of the Peninsula will not be particularly happy to return to the beginning of Kiev: first, they mostly associate themselves with Russia and not with Ukraine, and secondly, they fear that the Ukrainians will start to settle scores, and in the third place, whatever it was, very few people want to relive the complex process integration and the overturning of society and the economy turned on its head. And another thing: who after Putin? It is difficult to call such a politician or political party that would guarantee that she would lead Russia in the direction in which the West wants.
The Intention Of The Makron
So the king is not only a goal, and confused. First of all he is helpless. Many theses of the Macron is difficult to accept, but to accept at face value his intentions, especially here in Central Europe even more difficult. However, he at least began to ask questions that no one had ever tried to find answers, and if we want something to do with the European Union, to push it forward, we will certainly have to answer them.