Gas prices in Europe could rise by half if they stop the transit of Russian gas through Ukrainian territory. This was stated by the head of “Naftogaz” Andrey Kobelev, calling the unlikely scenario in which the transportation of raw materials will continue without conclusion of contract with “Gazprom”. Experts believe that such predictions are speculative and aimed at market manipulation.
Reuters © Ivan Segura consumers may face higher prices of gas in early 2020, if Russia and Ukraine fail to reach agreement on the issue of transit of Russian gas through Ukrainian territory. Such opinion in interview to the edition Liga.net was expressed by the Chairman of the Board NAK “Naftogaz Ukraine” Andriy KOBOLEV.
“Crisis prices difficult to predict, but I think I will not be mistaken if I say that the price at first may be doubled. For example, in March 2018, when Gazprom refused to supply prepaid gas the price has risen by 80% in few hours” — said Kobolyev.According to him, the rising cost of raw materials in the European Union will lead to a similar process in Ukraine. He also assured that Ukraine in the absence of any force majeure can safely pass the winter, even if the transit contract and will not be renewed.
“We have record reserves of gas, and we are ready to do without the import in the first quarter of 2020. We tried to prepare both technically and operationally to different situations”, — stated Korolev.
The head of “Naftogaz” also called the unlikely scenario in which the Russian company will continue the transit of gas to Europe without a contract with the Ukrainian side.
“If hypothetically to assume that there is no contract, and the gas flow is, the reception of such a resource for Ukraine carries certain risks. If you take gas without a contract, we will not have a reason for measuring it. Accordingly, any party, such as Russian, can accuse us of stealing gas. In addition, we may be accused of smuggling. This is a serious issue,” he explained.
November 26, Executive Director of the company “Naftogaz of Ukraine” Yuriy Vitrenko in his Facebook wrote that in the absence of the agreement “GAZ uncertain owner”, coming from the territory of the Russian Federation and intended for Europeans, will be pumped by Ukraine in its own repository, so far will be documenting the raw materials.
Earlier, Minister of energy and the environmental protection of Ukraine Alexey Orgel said that previously on December 5, scheduled for the next round of trilateral consultations on gas (Russia, Ukraine, EU). The Russian Minister of energy Alexander Novak admitted the possibility of meeting this day, if “Naftogaz” and “Gazprom” will come to a consensus on technical details.
Archive photos of tripartite consultations in the format EU —Russia — Ukraine on the transit of Russian gaslide the portal Hromadske with reference to the press service of the Ukrainian energy Ministry announced the breakdown of negotiations, scheduled for this date.
Now the discussion of the question of gas transit via Ukraine may be held on December 9, when Paris will host a summit “channel four”. According to the Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky, this topic can be discussed at the meeting, which also is the President of Russia Vladimir Putin.
“In any case, will stress”
Expert of the national energy security Fund, lecturer of Financial University under the government of Russia Stanislav Mitrakhovich in an interview with RT called “speculative” statement by the head of “Naftogaz” Andrew Kobolyev that gas prices in Europe could double in size if there is no agreement on transit of gas through Ukraine.
“If it will stop the transit of gas exchange in a panic, unable to react very fast rise in prices. This does not mean that the price must rise twice: it may increase in half. If the interruption of the transit will be accompanied by other problems, there can be increase in two times. But I still think this is unlikely. In any case, it will be stressful for the gas situation,” — said the expert.
According to him, the Ukrainian side such statements trying to make European countries “pressure” to “Gazprom”. However, he did not rule out the possibility of Russian gas supplies without a contract.
“In principle, deliveries without a contract possible. They have already been. In January — February 2019 the Russian gas was transported to Armenia through Georgia without a contract and then country after the fact agreed, and the cost of transit was paid,” — said the expert.
Director of the energy development Fund Sergey Pikin also said the words Koroleva “horror story” for the Europeans, but noted that even if a transit stop from Europe there are stocks of fuel.
“The classics of the genre, this statement is called the active manipulation of the market. It is clear that the gas market is very volatile and very sensitive to any change proposal. The examples are not far to seek: when was the abnormally cold periods of the winter, prices also soared many times and reached a very serious quantities,” — said the source RT.