The year 2020 promises to be the hottest ever recorded in France, confirming a dynamic linked to global warming, according to preliminary data from Météo-France made public this Thursday.
“With an average annual temperature in the country close to 14 ° C, an excess of the normal of nearly + 1.5 ° C, the year 2020 is well on its way to rise to the first place of the hottest years that France has known over the period 1900-2020 “, that is to say since these measures exist, indicates the public establishment in a press release.
Before 2018 and 2014
Excluding an exceptional cooling episode by the end of the year, 2020 should therefore take first place on the podium, followed by 2018 (13.9 ° C) and 2014 (13.8 ° C).
And of the 120 years since these national averages were recorded, the hottest six years have been recorded in the decade since 2011.
“During the decade that we have just lived, we are in a particularly significant dynamic, the variability becomes very reduced”, explains Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, deputy director of the climatology and climate services department of Météo-France. “Over a series of 120 years, the probability for each of these years (to be in the hottest) is one in 120, we see that the dice are loaded,” he continues.
The effects of global warming
Global warming is already having perceptible effects, some of which can be directly attributed to it, such as the late heat wave recorded in September, explains Soubeyroux.
Others “are part of the expected results of climate change”, such as the severe drought which hit a large north-eastern quarter of the country or certain particularly intense weather episodes, such as the “Mediterranean episode” which devastated part of the country. of the Alpes-Maritimes in October, or the rise in altitude of the rain-snow limit in the mountain ranges.
“Everything is consistent with the signals of warming, of which many events tell us the effects”, continues the specialist of Météo-France.
The “normals” which refer to are calculated every 10 years by taking into account a set of weather statistics over a period of 30 years. Météo-France will undertake next year the updating of these “normals”, currently calculated over the period 1981/2010.