Milliyet: some surprising developments on the Western front of Syria

Milliyet: неожиданные перемены на западном фронте Сирии

This header can immediately evoke the thought of the famous movie called “On the Western front without changes”, which many years ago appeared on television. But we have a different theme, and it is associated with the operation of the Armed forces (AF) of Turkey in Northern Syria. During the advancement of our military in the East of this vast front in the Western part, an unexpected change that can completely transform the balance of power in the region and the course of political events.***The city of Manbij, which is considered the most important center of the “Western front”, for three years under the control of the United States. Is at the same time the key place of concentration of the terrorist forces of people’s protection Units (YPG).Turkey has long demanded that the United States withdrew from YPG Manuja. Last year on this issue, an agreement was reached, and Washington has promised to fulfill this requirement. However, this promise, despite all the urgent requests was not implemented.Among the objectives of the operation Turkey, “the Source of peace,” and included Manbij. Of the Turkish armed forces successfully carried out the operation on the Eastern front and were preparing to rush on the Western front.At this moment there were two unexpected events. The United States announced the withdrawal of its military from Manuja and YPG, under the mediation of Russia signed an agreement with the Assad regime. Under this agreement, the army of the Syrian regime was supposed to enter the abandoned American military areas, including in Manbij.What happened: when the Americans left Manbij, Assad’s military has gone to these areas. At the same time, the city seemed and the Russian military. Moscow has warned that it will not allow clashes between the Turkish armed forces and the Assad army here.***The meaning and significance of this event from the point of view of the geostrategic situation in Syria and the region we can represent as follows:1. The decision of the President of trump to withdraw from the North of Syria weakens not only the US military presence in the region, but their political influence. As it becomes clear, and the statements of trump hurriedly left the battlefield on the principle of “go-save” and does not want the us military to get involved in clashes in Syria. However, domestically, the trump is exposed to extremely harsh criticism, especially from Congress.The decision on the withdrawal of us military concern in the region (especially Saudi Arabia and Israel), to the United States feel distrust.2. The greatest benefit from the new situation is Russia. Putin was able to immediately take advantage of the opportunity to fill the gap created with the departure of trump. Besides, no one fussing.3. Another country that benefits from this situation is Syria. The Assad administration due to the US decision of resignation could without firing a shot again to take control of the territory to the North of the country. It also strengthens the position of Assad from the political point of view.4. Recent events have destroyed the YPG’s dream of independence or autonomy. It is not known how Assad and Putin will support the YPG. For example, whether YPG to stay in Manbij or kicked out, as desired by Turkey?For such reasons now in this new environment, the interviewee Ankara seem to be mainly Moscow, as well as, albeit indirectly, Damascus.