Republicans have a plan in mind to manipulate the US election that goes far beyond voter suppression. Democrats have little time left to stop him.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is on the Senate Rules Committee’s lists for a hearing on the “Law for the People,” which would expand access to voting and other voting reforms, in the Capitol in Washington, Wednesday, March 24, 2021. It has already passed in the house. (AP Photo / J. Scott Applewhite)
Last week reports emerged that an influential group of White House officials was suggesting that Democrats could “better organize” Republican attempts to suppress votes:
In private calls with voting rights groups and civil rights leaders, White House officials and close allies of the president have expressed confidence that voter suppression can be “better organized,” according to several people familiar with the conversations.
Some White House officials have said this is a mischaracterization, but this is not the first time such sentiments have been reported. The frustrated response from more than 150 civil rights groups was at once fast and appropriately furious. Michael Arseneaux in Week he accurately described it as “betrayal of black voters“Because of the suggestion that, once again, blacks and black organizers should move mountains while white legislators do not do the basic work to protect them from disenfranchisement.” Steve Benen indicated that even if such an organization could be successful for one or two cycles, permanent changes to allow voter suppression could put marginalized communities at an electoral disadvantage for decades. And of course Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and many others have he pointed that the organization alone cannot counter partisan manipulation and attempts to revoke and refuse to certify election results.
But these arguments tend to get bogged down in speculation about the nebulous advantages for the Republican Party of voter suppression, manipulation, and the structural advantages for rural white conservatives in the Senate and Electoral College. Some (unconvincingly) argue that voter suppression bills i won’t do much to change election results, while others point out that gerrymandering has been a part of American News Block since Andrew Jackson (perhaps some critical theory of race could help elucidate the connection between Jacksonian News Block and modern white supremacist gerrymandering! !)
Little recent analysis has focused on the specific Republican plan to end democracy in the United States as we know it, and how crucial democratic reform is not just to ensure electoral fairness and an end to racist voter repression tactics. but to save the institution of democracy. itself.
Republicans have a clear plan to prevent a Democrat from being elected president again, as long as they control rural white America and manipulate rural states, a plan that would be impervious to even large asymmetric losses in the electoral college and the popular vote. presidential. It is a plan that was exposed once more yesterday when we learned that Donald Trump himself He said Officials of the Department of Justice to “just say the election was corrupt + leave the rest to me and congressmen R.“
So we are going to explain it in detail, step by step. Ryan cooper other Jonathan last (among others) have covered this topic before, but it’s worth revisiting succinctly:
1. Gerrymander at least 26 states red / purple to make sure they send a majority of Republican representatives to the House regardless of the total popular votes in those states.
2. The House and the Senate win. Due to the increasingly radical manipulation and outrageous rural white evangelical conservative slant of the Senate, if Republicans fail to achieve this in 2022 it will only be through their own extremism and incompetence. Republicans can easily control the Senate while representing 50 million fewer Americans in it, and win the House despite losing the national popular vote in the House in significant numbers.
3. Refusing to certify Democratic victories in states where they control legislative positions (again controlled) and / or secretary of state. Many of the new voter suppression laws sinisterly target the power of state secretaries and local county officials to conduct and certify elections, and forward them to (you guessed it) the rigged legislature. If they cannot refuse to certify statewide results due to misleading and unsubstantiated allegations of “fraud,” they can simply refuse to allow certification of counts in specific Democratic-leaning counties. They are currently in the process of freezing and terrorizing state and local certification officials who faced Trump’s coup in 2020, and will ensure their compliance in the future.
Quarter Refusing to certify the count of the unofficial electoral college, pushing back the decision to the delegations of the State Chamber. Most states have laws that state that their constituents must follow the certified results of their state elections. But if those elections are not certified, such laws will not be in effect. Competing voter lists could be selected. Republican majorities in the House and Senate could simply choose to accept “alternative” lists of Republican voters. Or, more likely, if the Republican majority in the House and Senate simply refuses to acknowledge the voters or certify the results, the Constitution takes the election to the House delegations of each state.
It’s a neat and clean plan. And everything is perfectly legal as long as the conservative majority in the Supreme Court, as a result of the appointments of presidents who lost the popular vote, approve it. What if it fails? Well the Republicans are already in the process of trying rewrite history and legitimize the failed insurrection on January 6, practically ensuring that next time they will try again in a more violent and organized way. Unsuccessful coups are often precursors to successful ones, and we not learn from history at our risk.
There is no way to better organize this plan, there is no way to get enough voters or win large enough majorities to counter it. Unless the Biden White House finds a way to persuade Senators Manchin and Sinema to end gerrymandering, punish those who refuse to certify valid elections, and pass the numerous reforms in HR1, the entire federal government building will likely it will be permanently controlled by a revanchist, violent, angry and declining minority of Fox News and conspired white evangelical rural conservatives.
This control will be impervious at the presidential level to both the popular vote and the electoral college. The Supreme Court will lean even more towards the extremists of the Federalist Society who put the ratchet harder against democracy and the right to vote. The Senate will be dominated by those representing the most extreme third of American society, as will the increasingly manipulated House. And eventually, even the face-saving trappings of democracy will disappear in the absence of some kind of revolt by the blue state governments in response.
There is very little time to do what it takes to stop it. Biden and Senate Democrats must do everything they can legally to establish legal obstacles against this slow coup against democracy before it is too late.