Norman fairway. Why Russia returned to Ukraine when Poroshenko captured ships

Нормандский фарватер. Почему Россия вернула Украине захваченные при Порошенко корабли

The ships of the Ukrainian Navy, the Russians towed through the Kerch bridge. Photo “Crimea realities”today Russia will give Ukraine the ships, captured in the Kerch Strait. The court has already left port and were held under the Crimean bridge.

This is happening almost on the anniversary of those events – the Ukrainian ship was boarded on 25 November 2018. But with the anniversary of the release of ships – as well as earlier sailors – related.

A new phase of detente between the Kiev and Moscow comes on the eve of the Normandy meeting, which could take place on 9 December.

Moscow officially this date is not yet confirmed, but representatives of the Kremlin says that the meeting could be before the New year. And the results of the ships looks like a goodwill gesture on the eve of an important conversation. And, apparently, is part of the preparatory activities.

“Country” is understood as one year after the shooting of the Ukrainian ships return home.

How to return the ships

Tug “Yana Kapu” and small armored artillery boat “Nikopol” and “Berdyansk” came today from the Kerch port and headed to Ukraine.

They will go home the same way he came in – through the Black sea. In the Azov Russia never missed.

According to the latest reports, the Ukrainian warships have already passed under the Kerch bridge. Video of their movements was published by the Russian media. The ships are accompanied by the Russian coast guard.
The first berth of the sea port of Kerch and left the tug “Yana Kapu”. Then the tow was taken one of the boats – “Berdyansk”. On Board sealed the hole which the ship received in the capture.

According to the automatic identification of ships (AIS), to meet the ships of naval forces of Ukraine have left the Ukrainian tows which skirted the southern coast of Crimea. That is, the return of the court is not in port and at sea.

Нормандский фарватер. Почему Россия вернула Украине захваченные при Порошенко корабли

In FSB of Russia declared that officially the court will give the representatives of Ukraine on November 18.

In addition, the Federation expelled the captured Ukrainian ships from among the physical evidence in the case of the Kerch incident in 2018.

In Ukraine officially does not comment on what is happening – it will happen most likely tomorrow, after the transfer of the courts. In the Russian foreign Ministry reminded that Ukraine in June could get the ships back if it guaranteed their safety as evidence.

As 3 ships and 24 sailors were captured

25 Nov 2018 in the Kerch Strait, the Russian border guards fired on and seized the Ukrainian boat “Berdyansk” and “Nikopol” and tug “Kapu Yana” who were sent from Odessa to Mariupol.

Three Ukrainian sailors of this skirmish were injured.

24 prisoners Ukrainians indicted for illegally crossing the border. 7 Sep 2019 this Saga was over for them: sailors exchanged and returned to Ukraine. Where is now criminal case, which relates to the personal interest of the former President of Petro Poroshenko in the Kerch events.

In RRG statement was filed by the lawyer Andriy Portnov. He believes that Poroshenko, as commander in chief, have sent the ships in the Kerch Strait – knowing that it could end military action. After which the former President declared in Ukraine, the military situation.

The purpose of this, says Portnow, an attempt was made to cancel or move the time of the presidential election in which Poroshenko had no chance to win.

Then the Parliament blocked the intention of the former President: Parliament refused to approve the total mode trip, agreeing only on a limited. And separately, decided that the presidential elections to be deferred because of this will not.

From ships to Normandy format

As mentioned above, the ships returned to Russia after Paris, Berlin and Kiev have confirmed the date of the meeting channel four: 9 Dec.

The gesture was very eloquent. It looks like a tacit agreement Putin to meet with Zelensky, Merkel and Macron. Although officially in Moscow this consent is not given.

Formally, all conditions to this meeting, Ukraine has fulfilled the agreement channel four from 2016 implemented. Prisoners were exchanged, the formula Steinmeier agreed on, the troops at three sites spread.

Moscow has put forward another condition – see to decide what to do with the law on the special status of Donbass. Whether to rewrite the Ukrainian government, if you will – as to whether it is fixed permanently or for a time and when the General in Kiev will hold elections and the status to provide. And the rules by which the elections will be held.

In the Kremlin today said that the direct link between the meeting and the law is already there, but called it a “cornerstone” of the whole process that goes in the Donbas.

That is, the connection still seems to be there.

However, most likely, to adopt a new law on the special status prior to the meeting will fail, but Moscow apparently wants before meeting to agree on the draft of this law, which was approved at the Norman meeting.

The fact that the meeting is prepared and committed symbolic steps like the return of the ships, might indicate that certain actions in terms of coordination of positions on the law on the special status will be taken.

May participate in negotiation of a special status, and the Europeans – and probably the Minister of foreign Affairs of Germany Haiko Maas will arrive tomorrow in Kiev to discuss exactly this question.

However, expectations from the meeting Zelensky Putin, Him and Merkel, if it takes place, is still vague. There is a strong impression that the meeting the Ukrainian President is not so much to come to new understandings, and to maintain its image as a “President of peace”.

This image is an important factor in electoral support, see who needs to win even local elections, and in the future – to start again the political force in Parliament.

At the same time, about the fact that the Ukrainian authorities want the real reintegration of Donbass in the conditions prescribed in the Minsk agreements, there is boltshuyu doubt.

And rhetoric about the prospects of special status often differs little from poroshenkovskoy.

From Zelensky directly say it in the form in which it is stipulated by Minsk agreements, no one will not accept.

“For Zelensky important process”

That is, until the real intention of see to integrate the Donbass look extremely questionable. For team President, it seems, interesting is not the result but the process – the negotiations of “peace”, which you can use to maintain the rating.

About the same writes the chief editor of “Country” Igor Guzhva on his page in Facebook.

“A week ago I wrote about talking about the freezing of the conflict in the Donbass about the construction of the wall, about the total interruption of all communications and other things, which lately has become fashionable to speak in Kiev, Donetsk and Moscow.

I wrote that all this talk abut in a practical question – and as, indeed, frozen this exercise and the “wall” build. If the peacekeepers who usually in such cases, play the role of “freezer” of the conflict, without the consent of Russia (a permanent member of the UN security Council) in the Donbass will not appear.

And exchange it the peacekeepers maybe except for the lifting of sanctions or something similar. And then the meaning of “freezing” from the point of view of Kiev (and the West) lost – turns out that the territory lost, and Moscow has made concessions.

So, one way or another, but the parties over and over again, doomed to return to the Minsk agreements, including their political part.

And the fact that now all the parties are already talking about the preparation of the Normandy meeting in December, shows that the process is hard, but it is.

The only question is – where is it going?

This question is split into two.

First – Zelensky ready to negotiate peace? Second – is he ready to really reintegrate the Donbass in Ukraine on the special status according to the Minsk agreement?

The first question can give a definite answer. Yes. Zelensky ready and very willing to negotiate.

Moreover, the negotiations for peace Zelensky important in themselves, even without achieving the result. The goal is nothing. The movement is everything.

All this action around the withdrawal of troops. Trip Zelensky in gold, his scuffle with nationalists. Constant intrigue – will he face Putin or not. The protests and threats of nationalists and porkopolis, Pedini and St. John’s Wort. All together it creates a beautiful scenery for a series called “Zelensky fighting for peace”.

This series is watching millions of people in Ukraine. Empathizing with the President. The plot of this series Zelensky included in your habitual way, which brought him victory in the elections – the image of a normal person (especially on the background such as Fedina), which will return the country to normal and peaceful life.

It is the continuation of this series and is the main stabilizing factor of the rating Zelensky, who sags, but not as quickly as we could on the background of all that is going on in the government.

But the show “ze fighting for peace”, gives the rating will fall, as voters fueled by hope.

Zelensky is very interested to continue this series. It is important for the process. Because he seeks to Channel the meeting – it will be another terrific series.

It is important to understand to analyze actions and statements see. Which sometimes seem to be chaotic and contradictory. But, meanwhile, they are all inscribed in the logic of the series – talk about the world in order to remove one series after another.

And this is the difference between Zelensky from Poroshenko. Poroshenko believed it to PR is beneficial to talk about the war, and Zelensky – that it is beneficial to talk about the world. And to make any even small steps that people can apply as an approximation of the world (divorce troops on three sites, the exchange of prisoners, the return of the ships, the meeting with Putin, etc.).

The only question is whether see to remove in the TV series the last series. That is, to reintegrate the Donbass special status (it is the only real way to achieve peace).

At first sight, now this doesn’t look promising. Most of the applications and ze and his team are that no special status (at least on the terms of the Minsk agreement) will not.

Explanations for this are different. Someone says Zelensky fundamentally opposed to give someone some special status. Someone said that America will not allow it. Someone that ze fears of a new Maidan.

But then, really, it all depends on the underlying issue. What the strategic plan is configured ze-team. If they want to continue to build the Ukraine of the Maidan with the suppression of any different opinion, a permanent confrontation with Russia, with nationalism as the official ideology, with a unique motion vector to the West, then, of course, no special status of Donbass not needed. Because it will complicate the process of “fitting” of Ukraine under these standards.

If we-the team believes that Ukraine needs to go a different way. Namely, the path of national reconciliation and normalization of relations with neighbors (which, by the way, so beautifully told recently Kolomoisky), then there is just the Donbass special status is becoming an essential element for the implementation of this project.

That is, if it is determined the motion vector, all the rest is technical details. Details are important and complex. But decide if there is a will,” writes Igor Guzhva.

Нормандский фарватер. Почему Россия вернула Украине захваченные при Порошенко корабли

Нормандский фарватер. Почему Россия вернула Украине захваченные при Порошенко корабли

Vic Wenk

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