Norman format: skepticism

I’d like to believe that in a week I will be forced to admit that he was wrong, and the Paris meeting in “a Norman format” (Putin, Merkel, macron, Zelensky) brought at least some relief already torn the opposition to the land of my Ukraine. But while tormented by skepticism.

Нормандский формат: скепсис

Dialogue. Alexander Gorbachov © IA REGNUMПотому that any agreement unless it is concluded “under the gun” winner, implies a reciprocal interest of all stakeholders. Taking into account the interests, certainly not full, otherwise diplomacy is not called “the art of leaving everyone dissatisfied”.
In the civil consciousness of the Ukrainian society, especially military-Patriotic part, persistently embedded the idea that the end of the crisis in the East of the country can only be either “victory” or “capitulationism”. The growing ignorance, unfortunately, does not allow the hawks to even suggest that the vast majority of wars in human history ended with the consensus, if not the status quo. This, by the way, the hawks indirectly confirm that in the East of Ukraine is not “war”, and “internal civil conflict”, which really always ended with the destruction of the enemy, executions defeated, six thousand crosses on the road from Capua to Rome (remember the revolt of Spartacus?) and the like.

The skepticism about the Normandy format is invoked in the first place so that none of the parties has no pragmatic interest in its completion:

Ukraine is the sixth year all the mistakes of his government: the failure of reform, improvement (the introduction) of taxes and tariffs, corruption, sale of all that has at least some liquid cost, — has the ability to justify a sacramental and not subject to doubt “…otherwise Putin will attack”;Russia explicitly included in the era of social crisis (unfair distribution and activation of the young liberal movement) always has the ability to stop social protests no less sacramental “…and then the Ukrainians”, and to justify any expenditure on the military-industrial complex (especially that costs are efficient);the”old Europe”, the icons of which are now Merkel and the macron, the tension on the border also need for the study the need for a “Europe of two speeds”, their own “European army” and the levelling of internal problems, primarily migrant. And that “alternative Le foam” to have the establishment all the heels tramped on.

Нормандский формат: скепсис

The fighters of the DPR in the trenches.© SV Drmota America just popped up out of the mud of the East pit. Although it started to “dig” its exactly what it is. Now few people remember that a long time ago, long before Minsk, 17 April 2014, four parties (Ukraine, EU, USA and Russia) signed the Geneva agreement. It was one of the first attempts at settlement of the Ukrainian crisis, the attempt failed and therefore almost forgotten. But not lost its qualities of international political and legal act.How has not disappeared and American interests in the region. Using the conflict, the United States was able to pump up Central Europe with their troops and assets, providing stable and partly anti-China anti-Russian cordon Sanitaire.

And last, but not substantially. Not very much and it seems that the world is a political ideal of the power in Donetsk and Lugansk. And Denis Pushilin, Leonid and Pasechnik are leaders in wartime and in the peace format, they can not find their place. And they should not be underestimated. Of course, Kiev is now categorically declares that none of the “terrorists-separatists” at the negotiating table will not sit down. But the Ukrainian folk wisdom recommends “not GOP Casati, docks not skipping”.

What would terrorists the whole world (and not only Ukrainian legal field) may recognize the Afghan Taliban (an organization banned in Russia), but the Americans for more than a year ago, we began negotiations with them, and November 28, on thanksgiving Day, Donald trump made a surprise visit to Afghanistan, speaking to reporters after a meeting with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani said that he has resumed peace talks with the Taliban (an organization banned in Russia). Well, after such a thing and talks with well-armed and “well-established” Donbass insurgents can be much more decent and acceptable.

It is therefore not surprising that the leaders in Luhansk and Donetsk do not look frightened, quite the contrary. Moreover, the Parliament of the insurgents adopted a decision on “new borders” of the breakaway Republic: “the Boundary is defined by the territory of Donetsk region, which was for the period of 2014. It provides that as long as not resolved the dispute between Ukraine and the DNR, the border will pass along the contact line”, — said the head of the National Council Vladimir Bedika.

Нормандский формат: скепсис

Vladimir statements of Kiev also do not feel the desire for a peaceful solution. In an interview with reporters, SPIEGEL, TIME, Le Monde and Gazeta Wyborcza, Russian President Vladimir Zelensky said that

“there is an opinion that most people (in the East of Ukraine — A. G.) want to live in Russia. It’s not true. I believe and know that there are people who are for Ukraine. Is lost. Finally, there are those who are for Russia. Those who are for Russia to be able to go: Russia is now handing out there their illegal passports.”If you get away from emotional evaluations, in fact Zelensky invited the residents of Donbas (well, or a significant part thereof) voluntary deportation from their native land. That is not a declarative statement “dove of peace”.

All this suggests that “Norman meeting” in Paris will not end. Although — as you want to be wrong!Andrei Ganzha