The pandemic of sars coronavirus could infect up to a million people in South Africa and make at least 40 000 people died here in November, reveal the projections of a consortium of scientists.
Developed by the university of Cape town in collaboration with experts from other institutions, this model was for the first time made public Tuesday evening at the daily of the minister of Health Zweli Mkhize.
South Africa is to this day the countries of sub-saharan Africa is the most affected by the disease, with more than 17 000 cases identified, of which 312 fatal, and nearly 8000 healings since the first case formalized on 5 march.
“We have tried to make projections complete on the evolution of the epidemic in the last six to eight months,” explained Dr. Sheetal Silal, who is head of the laboratory of the university of Cape town who made it, ” the uncertainty factor is very high “.
According to Dr. Silal, the range of the number of deaths likely to be caused by the virus is between 40 000 and 48 000 deaths on the horizon in the month of November, according to the scenarios.
His model provides for 30 000 infections by the end of may. It also anticipated an influx of patients in public and private hospitals in the country.
The study estimates that between 20 000 and 35 000 beds needs in these services between June and November, for a capacity of about 10 to 500 currently, according to figures from the minister Mkhize.
Of the 57 million South Africans live since the 27th of march under the regime of a strict containment conditions have been slightly relaxed at the beginning of the month to help with the recovery of a part of the economy.
Subject of the evolution of the pandemic, a new relief is expected at the beginning of June, including the re-opening very progressive schools.
Despite the criticism of more and more vivid, which aim for the confinement decreed by the president, Cyril Ramaphosa, Zweli Mkhize reiterated Tuesday night that the conditions of its exercise recommended by the world health Organization (WHO) were not met.