© REUTERS Valentyn Ogirenko President Zelensky preparing for negotiations in the “Normandy format”, his opponents carried out in the Kiev protests and the new government continues to sink in corruption scandals and personnel.Ukrainian political experts have commented for the publication of Ukraine.ru main events of the week.
“Zelensky will try to absolve themselves of responsibility for the “Minsk-2”
Meeting of heads of state “channel format” will be held on 9 December in Paris. On this day in the French capital at the negotiating table will meet the President of Russia Vladimir Putin, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, the President of France Emmanuel macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
According to the Director of the Center for political conjuncture Alexei Chesnakov, the draft outcome document for the summit in “Normandy format” has been agreed by the assistants of leaders of the participating countries and will not be reviewed.
According to the results “Norman summit” should not expect a radical change in the situation in the Donbass, according to the analyst Denis Gorokhovsky. In his opinion, will be outlined short-term actions that can be implemented in 3-4 months, “plus once again raised the issue of exchange of prisoners in the format “all for all”.
A similar opinion is a political strategist Alexander Teplykh. He predicts that the negotiations will go smoothly “moving in a failure to address the issue.”
In turn, political analyst Daniel Bogatyrev assumes that surprises are possible.
“With regard to the results of the meeting, I think that it is possible to achieve concrete results in several areas. In particular, it is possible to agree on further dilution, even at 30 sites along the line of contact…Thus decrease the amount of escalations on the line of contact.
The second point that we can agree, is the exchange of detained persons between Ukraine and the LDNR”, — said Bogatyrev.
At the same time as for the political part of Minsk agreements, to negotiate there will be much more difficult, the expert adds. He suggests that the meeting in Paris Zelensky will try to absolve themselves of responsibility for the implementation of the political part of Minsk agreements. In particular, prescribe the special status of non-government-controlled territories in the Constitution and, perhaps, to discuss a new law on the special status, which would imply better conditions for Ukraine — in fact, to revise the Minsk agreements.
“Neither Russia, nor France and Germany will not go. In Zelensky will press to have done everything as written. So, I think the political part of the possibility of any progress is significantly lower than in the exchange of prisoners and the divorce of troops,” — said the expert.
Protests against Zelensky: it is not the Maidan
Thursday, November 21, Ukraine celebrated the sixth anniversary of the “Euromaidan.” In Kiev and regional centers of the country held a rally to mark the anniversary of the start of the protests against Viktor Yanukovych, but directed against the incumbent President Zelensky.
New Maidan did not work, but the “party of war” has shown that to give up is not exactly going to.
To see similar events from the protests escalated into something more that would make resignation of the President or radically change the solution, we need the support of the West and especially the United States. This opinion Denis Gorokhovsky.
“What we see today, and given the statements of representatives of “Norman Quartet” and Washington, they are aimed, if not at the resolution of the conflict, then to freeze. It is unlikely that they need now to rock the boat and disrupt this process,” — says the analyst.
If the socio-economic situation in Ukraine will deteriorate, those forces that are trying to rock, as always, will be able to take advantage of the situation, said Alexander teplyuk.
So people came to the mass protests, they have, oddly enough, should be a pretty good basic level of life, says Daniel Bogatyrev. The poor do not protest, they simply lack the time to do this, they are busy with daily survival.
“But if a person has free time, as it was during the last independence… migrant Workers from Western Ukraine work in the summer in Poland, and in the winter eat up the money. Well why independence is not to go? There’s action, there are some political demands. Here and there they went.
Now people do not have this capability. The vast majority of residents live in poverty and are exclusively engaged in the provision of their own life. Therefore, any protests currently do not have any prospects. People will silently sit at home and suffer.
And the nationalists, or any veterans of the ATO is unable to specifically change the picture, unable to achieve mass. So afraid Zelensky in essence nothing,” — said the expert.
Scandals in “the Servant of the people”: the cadres decide everything
New government shaken by personnel scandals. Only this week there was dirt on the ex-actor “Quarter 95” Yuri Kravchenkoveknown as Yuzik, Telegram-channel “Pipe burst” published a wire from the office of the head of the RRT of the Novel Pipe, continues scandal convicted for the rape of a member of the “public Servants” Novel Ivanisov…
One of the reasons the personnel of the scandals of the new government that at the stage of preparation for parliamentary elections in the list of “public Servants” was formed at the last moment and on the knee. There were several people who were not for past services or money, and just by chance, says Denis Gorokhovsky.
“No one expected that the party will monopolista, and nobody expected that “mazhoritarka” will give so many places, candidates in majority districts essentially closed anyone without an expectation of victory.
Because of this hurry was very poorly developed control and filtering of candidates. We received a huge faction where there are several groups fighting among themselves and merge “opponents”. A number of scandals occur within the faction”, — said the analyst.
According to him, these scandals have a negative impact on the rating Zelensky, and even to a greater extent on the rating of the party. The expert is confident, that we will take personnel decisions. For example, Ivanisov already expelled from the faction, he offered to voluntarily surrender the mandate. He will hand over him or not, but from the party it is officially denied.
Scandals in “the Servant of the people” are more concerned with internal squabbles in the party, said Alexander teplyuk.
“During this time, as always, everything is lumped at each other compromising and now pour them to achieve their goals. This distribution of financial flows. If someone interferes, then it need something to pour or to bring something to to resolve the issue”, — said the expert.
He adds that it is now possible surgical options cleansing people, for whom little who is that situational hit the party and are not included in large groups.
Scandals affect the rating of the party and Zelensky, but a purge is not so sure Daniel Bogatyrev. The problem is that “public servants” are illegible in personnel matters, because they don’t have what is called a traditional party, then have a party with a strong structure on the ground.
“And since they have a virtual party, as they gained supporters through the Internet application, and the other part — the franchise that bought the representatives of the old political parties, they will get stories like that continue. I’m sure this won’t be the last”, — said the analyst.Source