Real estate : “significant drop” to predict in Quebec, prevents the CMHC

The quebec housing market is going to record a “significant drop” in the sales of properties and values thereof at least until 2022, predicts the canada mortgage and housing corporation (CMHC).

“After dropping sharply in 2020, housing starts, sales and prices should start to recover in mid-2021, with the removal of the containment measures. (But) sales and prices are expected to remain below their levels before the COVID-19 by the end of the forecast period, in 2022, ” said on Wednesday the chief economist of the State corporation, Bob Dugan, in a special report.

Across canada, housing starts are “probably” decrease of 51% to 75% in 2020 compared to their levels prior to the COVID-19. And then they will recover little by little from next year.

The CMHC is also expected that the number of sales is down 19% to 29% compared to their level prior to the COVID-19 this year. We can expect a gradual recovery from the end of the year.

The current owners will have to be patient if they wish to sell, or accept a lower price than they would have been able to touch before the start of the pandemic of sars coronavirus. According to the CMHC, the average price will decline from 9% to 18% at the national level compared to the levels pre-COVID-19. This is only from the first half of 2021 that the prices start to rise again little by little.

The precise timing and the speed of the recovery are “highly uncertain” because of the recession “history” that is going to live in Canada, says the CMHC.

In general, what are Alberta and Saskatchewan, which rely heavily on oil, which will be more affected by the crisis. But Quebec and Ontario are the most affected at the level of housing starts.

“In the most populous provinces are Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia, prospects are generally similar with respect to the size of the reductions expected in 2020 and 2021, compared to the levels before the pandemic. However, there are some notable differences. It is likely that in 2020 and 2021, the housing starts will decline less in British Columbia than in Quebec and Ontario.

“However, sales and prices will most likely decrease more in Ontario than in British Columbia and Quebec,” says the document.

More details will follow…

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