Scientists have explained why Russia is waiting for a climate disaster

Ученые рассказали, почему Россию ждет климатическая катастрофа

Scientists from the Institute of marine research in tromsø have revealed rapid and dramatic climate changes in the Northern Barents sea. The scientific results were published in the journal Nature Climate Change.

This writes LENTA.RU.

However, Russian experts believe that about any environmental disaster in the region is premature to speak. “Ribbon.ru” says that it is found by the Norwegian researchers and what consequences it may bring.

It is known that over the past two decades, the area of Arctic ice, their volume and thickness decreased significantly, although a gradual reduction is observed with the 50-ies. Some scientists call such changes are dramatic, furthermore, the extent and thickness of ice decreases faster than predicted by climate models that take into account greenhouse gas emissions. Polar ice experts called the markers of global warming.

From 1978 to 2010, the area stretch of sea ice in early autumn decreased by 2.5 million square kilometres, with a sharp drop began in the mid 90-ies. In 2012, the rate of melting of the Arctic sea ice broke all records. QuikSCAT satellite data show that long-term (or pack) ice, which persist for three years or more, has decreased significantly since 2008, and only in 2014 they were able to return most of the lost positions, with the exception of a ten-year ice, which has become a real rarity. Even if the entire Arctic will delay the ice in some very cold year, it is not necessary to rejoice — the old and thus thicker ice likely will not return.

Of course, there is the likelihood that this phenomenon is just part of a natural cycle. However, it is very small. According to an article in Science, published in 1999, it is equal to 0.1 per cent of ice loss in the years 1953-1998. Other scientists have estimated the probability that to blame the Arctic oscillation (AO), 5 to 30 percent (if we consider the period 1979-2010 years), but it was later revealed that in 2009-2010, the AO was to contribute to the increase of ice areas, but in reality observed almost the smallest square. But the pattern of decrease of ice correlated with the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

How to write Norwegian scientists, one of the most vulnerable to global warming regions were the Barents sea, in the Northern part of which, in the upper hundred meters, there is a rapid increase in the heat content. In 2010-2016 the standard deviation from the mean values, 1970-1999 years amounted to 3.8 Sigma, that is, the heat content increased by 500 megajoules per square meter, and in 2016-m to 6.3 Sigma (800 megajoules per square meter). That is, in the last decade has seen a powerful influx of heat, which was not in previous years, which were not observed in other parts of the North. That is why the authors called the Barents sea a “hot spot” of climate change.

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