On the eve of early parliamentary elections in Spain DW understood the chances of the major parties, as well as whether the vote is to stabilize the political situation in the country.In Spain Sunday, November 10, will be held early parliamentary elections, the need for which is dictated by the absence of a full Executive. The fact that the Spanish socialist workers party (PSOE) won the elections on 28 April 2019, won an absolute majority in Parliament and the opportunity to form a single-party Cabinet.
At the same time, the party was unable to enlist the support of other factions to create a coalition government. In force since may, the government of the PSOE is considered interim and can not make important decisions, including those relating to the state budget.
Meanwhile, the leading sociological services of the country – GAD3, 40dB, NC Report and Sigma Dos in one voice say that this election, like previous ones, no political force will not receive support, which will form a single-party government. On the other hand, inter-party disagreements and the sharp division in the political field is unlikely to help the newly elected deputies (the Parliament’s 350 seats) to agree to create a stable ruling coalition.
Polls portend the success of the center-right national party (NP), said in an interview with DW employee of Madrid’s Center of sociological studies Vicente Zabala. According to him, the representation of NP may increase from the current 66 deputies to 90-100. The setback in April, a party that until June 2018, had been the ruling was due, in the words of sociologist, “corruption scandals with its former leadership.” Since then, the “populists” who have now appeared young leaders, “was able to partially restore its image.”
However, added Zabala, according to forecasts, the majority of votes will still gain the PSOE, although it may lose a few places. Now the socialists 123 mandate. According to experts, the rising popularity of a party which is in power, prevent the adverse economic situation, resulting in rising unemployment. Not like many of the Spaniards and “insufficiently active” position of the PSOE against what is happening in Catalonia.
Factor of Catalonia in the elections to the Spanish Parliament
Another Respondent DW expert, Professor of political science at the Complutense University of Madrid, Francisco Varela, said that many Spaniards are guided in their sympathies with the position of a particular party in the Catalan conflict. If, for example, the socialists promise to appease Catalonia by means of a dialogue, the NP argues that opportunities for dialogue are exhausted due to the unconstructive position of the local separatists.
The people’s party proposes drastic measures, up to deprivation of the region the right to self-government. And this, according to the analyst, largely responsible for the growth of its popularity. Because most of the Spaniards abhorred the idea of independence of Catalonia, especially when its radical supporters want, as happened in October, riots with looting and arson.
The promise of uncompromising struggle against separatism was mainly determined by the high rating of party “the Voice,” said the Professor Varela. We are talking about a breakaway a few years ago from NP its conservative wing. Now “the Voice” can get up to fifty seats instead of 24, won in the last election. Thus, the party could become the third representation in Parliament.
As with other campaign promises, then, according to Francisco Varela, they are traditional. The PSOE’s emphasis on social benefits for the poor by increasing taxes on businesses and the wealthy. While the NP and “the Voice”, on the contrary, point to the need to reduce all taxes to promote growth, create jobs and increase purchasing power of the population.
Chance the Spanish right-wing and ultra-left small
Meanwhile, on the flanks of the party-political spectrum is also changing, says sociologist Zabala. According to him, for the first time in the elections as a single block decided to perform four right-wing parties: the Spanish alternative to national democracy, “the Phalange” and “Phalanx of committees for national syndicalist offensive”. However, says the sociologist, the chances are small, “These parties scare the voters with his rhetoric, reminiscent of the sunk into oblivion of the Franco regime”.
As for the ultra, then the number of the deputies of the strongest of the party “Podemos” (“We”), according to the survey, will be reduced from 42 to 28, predicts the source DW. The reason, in his words, is that more and more Spaniards are convinced of neizmennoi populist promises of the party.
For example, to give all broken “base rent” in the amount of 1200 euros per month or forgive a population debt on the mortgage. Employee opinion of the centre recalled that – unlike the democratic parties – the Spanish ultra (right and left) “do not recognize the norms and laws of a democratic state”.
Vague prospects of the government of Spain
Meanwhile, according to Professor Varela, Spanish, among other things, characterized by sharp polarization of political forces. What complicates the search for compromise and the formation of a ruling coalition with the subsequent formation of a coalition government.
It is the increasing polarization Varela explains the drop in popularity of the centrists of the party “Citizens.” Its faction in the Parliament could be reduced from 24 to 15 members. It is expected that the part of the voters of this party will now vote for the NP.
Thus, recognizes the political scientist, the prospects of government formation in Spain still remain vague. In theory, the coalition could be created as a left – PSOE and the “Podemos” with the support of “Citizens” and the right – NP, “Voice” and the same “Citizens”. But in practice, among all of them there are deep contradictions that prevent any unity, summed up Varela.