Stratfor: Erdogan’s visit to Washington only delayed the storm in relations with the US

During a visit to Washington, the President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan has made some progress, but the negotiations with trump has not led to solving any of the long-term problems in U.S.-Turkish relations, writes Stratfor. According to the magazine, although trump and gave the Turkish leader to change his position to purchase the Russian s-400, to meet this requirement Washington Turkey will not be easy. Such a decision surely infuriate Moscow and will lead to serious consequences for Turkey and for Erdogan himself.

Stratfor: визит Эрдогана в Вашингтон лишь отсрочил бурю в отношениях с США

ReutersВизит Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to the White house 13 November, should be seen as a victory of the Turkish leader only in a narrow sense, which nevertheless is very important. Against the backdrop of the introduction of us sanctions Erdogan’s meeting with trump ended up being first stated in the oval office to their demands, trying to prevent punitive measures from the U.S., writes Stratfor.

The visit of Erdogan was not allowed any of the long-term problems in U.S.-Turkish relations. Moreover, the visit of the Turkish President — to which most Federal agencies United States are treated with disdain — all wouldn’t have happened if not for a personal invitation to trump. After the recent invasion of Northern Syria, and the purchase of Russian s-400 Turkey in the us capital friends almost gone.

However, it remains unclear what kind of benefits trump received from numerous photo shoots with the leader, which the American state institutions considered at best an unreliable partner, which is evident rapprochement with Russia to the detriment of Western interests. Most observers came to the conclusion that the Union between Turkey and the United States exists more on paper than in practice. Moreover, there are many reasons to believe that the interests of Ankara and Washington will contradict each other in the future.

In the U.S. capital, Erdogan arrived with a long list of requests and demands, most of which, apparently, was the protection of himself and the Turkish government. Concerns about the fact that the United States will make available to the public some of the most questionable sources of the vast wealth of Erdogan, as well as the future of the Turkish Bank Halkbank, who was suspected of violating anti-Iran sanctions was clearly the priority.

In addition, the Turkish leader has angered the us officials and senators demonstrated during the meeting video in which the head of the Syrian democratic forces Mazlum Abdi was described as a terrorist, which should give Turkey and not to invite to Washington. When Senator Lindsey Graham dismissed this “act of propaganda“, the conversation turned on the subject of buying s-400.

Of the common statements that emerged at the end of the meeting trump with Erdogan that the US wants Turkey’s mainly only one thing: to find a way to abandon the s-400 and in exchange to return to the program for the development of F-35. Otherwise, Ankara should expect serious sanctions.

As for s-400, here, Erdogan will have to solve interesting puzzle and be one of their most important decisions. Not to mention the loss of face of Turkey will be very hard to reverse the transaction with Russia. Erdogan is well aware that to piss off the President of Russia Vladimir Putin is very dangerous, given that, according to some, the Russian leader is able to give publicity to a number of incriminating evidence that will reveal dubious financial Affairs, and international relations of Erdogan. In addition, Putin can punish Turkey by economic means, breaking the existing trade and travel agreements.

On the other hand failure to meet Washington in the matter of s-400 can result in sanctions flurry. While the United States, apparently, give her the opportunity to think hard on this topic and make a decision. At the moment, the case against Halkbank and a Senate resolution recognizing the genocide in Armenia are under wraps, which can be interpreted as a sign of goodwill and a signal that the US is interested in returning Turkey to the bosom of the West.

What would an aggressive and well grounded position of the United States, American officials worry that too tough measures to push Turkey into the arms of Russia. Although Ankara and there are few friends in the state Department and the Pentagon, nobody interested in the fact that Turkey formally joined the Russian camp.

However, according to Stratfor, with the arrogant Erdogan hides the uncertainty, as over his 17-year rule, dark clouds. Shortly after his visit to Washington, the Turkish leader delivered a 36-minute speech in honor of the 81-year-old anniversary of the death of the founder of the Turkish Republic, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. During his speech, Erdogan downplay the achievements of the Republic, saying instead that the successes of modern Turkey is heavily based on the heritage of the Ottoman Empire.

If you close your eyes to the history and different nuances, Erdogan apparently does not realize that in the Ottoman state a man of his simple origin to an influential government post, no one would have madeit,” notes the magazine.

However, Erdogan should not be underestimated, warns Stratfor. — He is a master tactician who has the will and the ability on a whim to change the public discourse and the political climate in their favor. Over the past six years or so like the foresight he used in order solely to survive. Will he be able to use its potential and influence for the benefit of the national interests of the country, will show only time“.

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