Stratfor: how the allies will respond to U.S. demands about the deployment of troops

Stratfor: как союзники отреагируют на требования США о развертывании войск

The USA demand from three key allies — South Korea, Japan and Germany — a significant increase in pay for placement on their territory of military forces. This can lead to significant changes in the overall scheme of the global US military presence. The Central role that the United States and its armed forces in security policies of South Korea and Japan, indicates the strong position of Washington, hoping to get more money. However, these steps can alienate the United States from Germany.This month there were reports that the President of the United States Donald trump and his administration demanded that South Korea next year to devote to continuing to provide military protection from the US $ 4.7 billion — which is 400% more than the current payments. Then came the information that in July, the United States approached Japan with a request four times to expand their share in military spending, bringing it to eight billion dollars, once in March 2021 will expire a bilateral agreement on special measures. This became known at a time when the United States was going to put pressure on its NATO allies in Europe, particularly in Germany, demanding increase of payments for the presence of American troops on the continent.The above-mentioned requirements of the United States is not the first evidence of the emerging political shift. In March, the Agency “Bloomberg” reported that under the leadership of the White house administration has developed a list of demands, according to which Japan should pay all costs for the deployment of us troops on Japanese soil, but 50% on top of the fact that Americans have such an honor. The same sample was originally used in the negotiations on the agreement on special measures with South Korea in 2018 before the United States decided to settle down. And in June, the Washington post reported that the Pentagon analyzes the impact of large-scale withdrawal of American troops from Germany. This is not a joke stravoula European officials, who were waiting for clarification from their counterparts in the United States.Despite resistance from the Pentagon and the state Department, which from time to time fails to mitigate the demands, the White house, and trump is personally determined to get their most wealthy allies that they consider fair trades for the deployment of American troops. The study of the Pentagon devoted to the withdrawal of US troops from Germany, emphasized that the United States intends to withdraw even if negotiations fail.The US desire to get money for the deployment of its contingent is not news, and with the departure of trump and it’s not going anywhere. However, trump and the current White house is stepping up this process, making it a Central component of relations with the countries-allies. Given the schedule of negotiations, South Korea is in a difficult position, with limited space to maneuver, whereas Japan and Germany have the possibility to slow down the negotiating process until 2021, when the arrival of the new administration’s position on this issue may become less rigid. In any case, at least for the next year and maybe in the future US efforts to substantially change the agreements with key allies can have far-reaching consequences.South Korea: maintaining the defense dependency, and growing ambitions in the sphere of defenseof South Korea is forced to confront a new approach the United States with disadvantageous positions. After 2018, during the difficult negotiations on the agreement on special measures South Korea has agreed to pay the United States 8.2% more, she faced the new requirements of the US payments of 400%. The negotiations were clearly not “warm and friendly” environment: Nov 19, us negotiators abruptly interrupted dialogue, when it became clear that at the moment no progress will not be achieved.But sooner or later, Seoul will have to make a deal. Despite a significant military power, its defensive strategy is still heavily dependent on the armed forces of the United States and the 28 500 us troops based on the Korean Peninsula. Being more powerful traditional weapons than North Korea in the event of a major military conflict with North South Koreans will still rely on U.S. troops, particularly us forces command, control and intelligence gathering, as well as their air force. These capabilities are crucial to neutralize the offensive forces of North Korea before Pyongyang will be able to inflict significant damage to the population and economy of South Korea. The growing power of North Korean nuclear and missile Arsenal has only strengthened the importance of defensive role of the Americans.Stringent requirements put forward by the United States to South Korea became an occasion for renewed calls for greater autonomy in the sphere of defence, particularly by left-wing legislators. South Korea have been working to reduce this dependence, expanding its defense capabilities, moreover in the country there are calls for the acquisition of nuclear weapons. However, the achievement of a genuine defence of independence will take decades, and therefore, an immediate rupture with the United States despite the high demands is unlikely. However difficult the talks may give South Korea additional impetus to the desire for greater autonomy in defense, and negotiation impasse can induce trump to unilaterally reduce the number of us troops in South Korea.Japan: wealth and dangerous neighborhood will force Tokyo to bargainAs South Korea, Japan continues to be in direct dependence on the US security assurances, and, like South Korea, is forced to answer tough US demands to increase payments. According to the magazine foreign policy (Foreign Policy), in July, the United States has asked Japan four times to increase their share in military expenditure up to eight billion dollars, when in March 2021 expiry of the term of their bilateral agreements on special measures. In addition, like South Korea, Japan has a powerful armed forces. However, for a long time they were focused on defense, and Tokyo is only now beginning to accumulate serious offensive firepower. At the same time, Japan expects a contingent of about 50 thousand American military personnel, located throughout the country and strengthens its ability to respond to external threats.These threats, in particular the rise of China, suggests that, like South Korea, Japan won’t allow myself a complete break with the United States because of the requirements of the higher payments. Although Japan will seek to conclude a better deal than that offered by Washington, it is one of the most reliable allies, which the US can exert pressure, given the considerable wealth of Japan and its interest in close cooperation with the United States.Tokyo could use this pressure as an additional argument in favour of speeding up the normalization of the Japanese armed forces, urging local critics that a more balanced armed forces will provide Japan’s greater self-sufficiency. Although Washington has long been demands from Tokyo that is, the expansion of the Japanese armed forces is for the US to certain risks — for example, a higher risk of the US being drawn into the conflict.Germany: strong position will ensure the transfer of American troops in EastGermany is in a much better position than South Korea and Japan, to give a rebuff to Washington, which is expected in 2020 will forward their demands to NATO — and especially to Berlin. Like South Korea and Japan, Germany is hosting on its territory an impressive number of American troops — 34 thousand, — but unlike them she is not exposed to a high risk of direct military threats. Also unlike South Korea and Japan, Germans in General are much more critical of the US military presence in their country. Recent polls show that if South Korea and Japan the US military presence is supported by about two-thirds of the population, the Germans (according to a YouGov survey conducted in 2018 for the news Agency DPA) rather welcomed the withdrawal of U.S. troops (42%) than oppose it (37%).According to most Germans, the American US military bases on their territory are responsible not only to the interests of Germany, how many foreign policy interests of the United States. Indeed, the military infrastructure created by the United States over the past decade in Germany, including airports and hospitals, was used extensively during the American wars in the middle East and Afghanistan. Most likely, these factors will force Germany to reject US demands for a substantial increase in payments, bringing the number of American forces on its territory will be reduced.In addition, Germany has all the chances to defend their position because the most likely area for the placement of American troops will be neighboring Poland. For its part, Poland is actively lobbying for more American troops and is ready to pay US a significant amount. Since the main problem of Germany is Russia, the transfer of US troops in Poland will give Berlin what he wants, without having to pay for it. However, this scenario will cost Germany an even greater deterioration of relations with Washington.

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