That will save Zelensky from the fate of Yanukovych?

The main Ukrainian Maidan becomes the national pastime

Что спасёт Зеленского от судьбы Януковича?

In Kiev declared and promises to become a significant “preventive” Maidan. The party of “European solidarity”, “Voice” and “Fatherland” urged “all concerned Ukrainians to” come out on Sunday, December 8, at a mass protest.

The appeal signed by Petro Poroshenko, Svyatoslav Vakarchuk and Yulia Tymoshenko published online Facebook former speaker of the Parliament Andrei Parubiy: “Ukrainians! Given the momentous challenges that now face Ukraine, on the eve of the Normandy meeting, it is necessary to remind the authorities about “red lines” – the demands of the Ukrainian people, which no one has the right to ignore”.

The proverbial “line” was identified in the made from the rostrum of Parliament statement:

– no compromises for a unitary state and no federalization;

– no compromise in relation to European and Euro-Atlantic course;

– no political action, in particular elections on the temporarily occupied territories of Donbass to fulfil the conditions for security and de-occupation. The withdrawal of Russian troops, disarmament of illegal armed groups, the establishment of control over the state border;

– no compromises about the de-occupation and the return of Crimea to Ukraine;

– no halt to the international lawsuits against Russia.

Что спасёт Зеленского от судьбы Януковича?

In addition to the political wing (the three parliamentary parties) to a new Maidan activists are preparing street. Created “resistance Movement surrender”, which organizers are preparing to pitch a large tent city in front of the presidential administration. For the new square has a name: the action “watch on the Bank”. There are calls to help “Guard”, to bring into a camp, metal drums, wood, dermopathy, chairs, blankets, cooking pots for cooking, heaters, stoves, toilets. “Custody” is ready to bear at least until the moment when it becomes clear the outcome of the Paris meeting “Norman Quartet” on 9 December.

The war party has already received substantial reinforcements: the Minister of internal Affairs Avakov, the governing law enforcement and regulatory the street, posted in social networks post, signed “Resistometry Ukrainian naconal Arsen”. Avakov reminded unequivocally of the “first person” about his indispensability. And if Zelensky will not find the strength to eliminate “the factor Avakov,” he will be in even more straitened circumstances than Poroshenko. However, while Zelensky confidence – the outcome of an open struggle with Avakov him is not clear.

The situation repeats that which arose two months ago after the signing of the Ukrainian representatives of “formula Steinmeier”. Then, faced with protests by Jingo, Zelensky began to “back off” from him and his team made a statement forbidding the implementation of the Minsk agreements and the transition to a “plan B”. Subsequently, the statement was quiet, but before the summit in Paris on 9 December Zelensky again spoke about the “complete withdrawal from the territory of Donbass of all illegal military units” and the transfer of Ukrainian control over the border (between DNR/LNR and Russia), and in fact over the entire territory of the republics of Donbass.

After protests against the “formula Steinmeier” the leaders of the prosecution was forbidden to sign any petitions in criminal cases against Poroshenko, and “the fifth President”, there’s no hiding, quietly ignored the interrogations in the RRG (State Bureau of investigation). The head of this Department Roman Pipe was sent for signature to the attorney General a draft submission to the Parliament on bringing Poroshenko to criminal liability, but the paper has not received movement, and on the eve of the meeting in Paris, the Rada adopted amendments to the law on RRT, in accordance with which the powers of the Roman Pipe was stopped. The Desk should now focus on the investigation “of crimes against the Maidan”.

All this looks like a behind the scenes agreement between Zelensky and Poroshenko on the termination of criminal pressure on the latter in exchange for something that controlled him, “patriots” is organizing the protest, will not cross certain “red lines”. Only there are these lines, if “the party Zelensky” constantly demonstrates not even the weakness and the fear?

Что спасёт Зеленского от судьбы Януковича?

ZOPA – Zone of Possible Agreement

In such a situation to expect from Zelensky in Paris, something in addition to demonstrating “toughness”, directly leading to the failure of the summit, is not necessary. This also applies to the transit of gas through Ukraine after 31 December (open question), and the point of the ultimatum, “no halt to the international lawsuits against Russia.”

Even if Zelensky is not in the least depart from the requirements presented him with the ultimatum, street activists camped in tents in front of the presidential administration, will continue to “defend Ukraine to the end.” And then the political situation in Ukraine will be to manage the constant see-Maidan.

At the same time issued a tactical Alliance of Poroshenko and Tymoshenko, due to common interest, – to get rid of a new President and another time to try their luck in an early election, has not yet announced the other contenders for the presidential Mace. Seasoned political jackals scenting blood, the victim will not leave.

Save Zelensky from repeating the fate of Yanukovych can only be one thing – a clear consciousness of the fact that until recently it was supported by 73% of voters of Ukraine, who voted against the war.

For the Ukrainian party of war meeting “Norman Quartet” in Paris on 9 December – the perfect excuse to spend a decisive attack on Zelensky. For him it an opportunity to counter-attack on the domestic front, although the likelihood of such actions on the part of see every day is reduced.Anton Kanevsky

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