The chances of survival beyond 72 hours are slim in the forest

Les chances de survie au-delà de 72 heures sont minces en forêt

Without preparation, the chances of survival for a fugitive like Martin Carpentier in the hostile conditions of a dense forest are very thin beyond 72 hours, writes a specialist in the field.

Mathieu Hébert is the co-founder of the company The Primitives, specialized training on survival in the forest. The Newspaper asked him to describe the difficulties that represents the survival for Martin Carpentier, the father of two young girls found dead, and who is absconding for more than four days. In the optical, where it is still located in the vast wooded area of Saint-Apollinaire identified by the police as a place of research.

“Statistics show that people who are lost in the forest, not the fugitives, the normal people, who don’t have a lot of equipment and who are disoriented, after 72 hours, the chances of finding them alive are relatively low. It falls in the bottom 10%.”


In the case of the fugitive Carpentier, adds Mr. Hébert, other elements complicate the survival. In particular, the stress and the psychological distress, the tension, the pressure of knowing they are hunted, the involvement in the death of small. To this are added two nights of pouring rain, which accelerates the loss of body heat due to wet clothes. Insects, hallucinations, paranoia and injury can also come to the party.

The calorie consumption is extreme in these cases, he says. “This is not the average person, and even for those who make scouting, which have resources or knowledge to improvise something. The weather starts to really play against him.”

If he found shelter, food and water, its life expectancy can be increased, ” said Mr. Hébert.

But according to him, there is a possibility that he has found shelter somewhere — in a structure attached to a cottage, or in a gallery — and that he perished in this place.

Questions without answers

Of course, stresses Mathieu Hébert, several items remain without answers. There is also a slim possibility that the fugitive came out of the search area. But it will be difficult for him to continue hiding without a trace, according to the specialist.

“But rendering where it is, if there is no factor of preparation or luck factor they have found food or shelter, like this, in the nature, I do not see how this individual is going to be able to survive for long without being noticed. If it moves much, it will be easier to find. It is for this reason that I do not have the impression, if it is within the perimeter, as he is living currently.”

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