The decision of the Stockholm arbitration only looks Peremoga

In fact, it brings the cessation of gas transit

Решение Стокгольмского арбитража только выглядит перемогой

Thoughts about the gas prospects in light of the adoption today by the court of Appeal of Sweden solution.

1. The decision was made in relation to attempts “Gazprom” to challenge the decision of the Stockholm arbitration on the contract with “Naftogaz” on gas SUPPLIES in 2009. It was pretty predictable.

2. The decision of the same court on the appeal of “Gazprom” the decision of the Stockholm court under the TRANSIT CONTRACT (namely, according to him, “Naftogaz” and seized $4.6 billion) is expected only next year.

3. In any case the decision, at least formally, and looks Peremoga in fact brings zradu in the form of termination of transit, because it strengthens the position of the “hawks” like Vitrenko, earning on the purchase of Russian gas through the Western firms-strip and otherwise blocking any attempt to reach a compromise.

4. Almost the only possibility of compromise on the issues of transit/direct purchases associated with the meeting in Normandy format, no matter how much Vitrenko did not say that there are gas issues will not be discussed. In fact, they even discussed in a phone talks between Putin-Zelensky.

5. As for the only possible compromise, it was announced by the Russian side during the March visit Medvedchuk to Moscow and talks with top officials of the Russian Federation – direct delivery at a price 25% below that at which Ukraine buys gas via company-pads. In fact, no other principles, but agreed with him and announced in March this year, the Russian side no one else offered and not offered. What has recently been confirmed by Putin himself at the BRICS summit in Brazil. Moreover, Zelensky in recent months tried to give negotiations at the mercy of Kovalevu/Vitrenko that has a predictable result as a complete failure.
As for the format implementation of associated conditions (termination of litigation and nullification of the mutual claims of the contract period, volumes, etc.), it seems, negotiable.

6. If, however, the transit is reset, it will be “fun” for everyone. Someone less – the residents of Central and Western regions “Shine” raising rates no less than 25-30% and the saving mode. Someone more – whether to supply gas in sufficient quantities and with sufficient pressure to the East, is unclear. But stop Lugansk thermal power plant running on gas, and blackout for a considerable chunk of the region is very likely.

7. If the agreement on the transit and direct delivery will be achieved, it will allow the authorities to have the resources to significantly reduce the rate of gas for the end consumers. For example, Medvedchuk announced the formula – direct deliveries from Russia at a price 25% below + the abolition of VAT on gas of Ukrainian extraction + restriction sirgrinalot “Ukrgasdobycha” – it will be possible to reduce the price from the current 7 thousand UAH. up to 3.8-4 thousand UAH. per thousand cubic meters.
Although there is, of course, everything depends on the will power to do it. The first statements Argela that the money saved will be withdrawn for some important social events is not very encouraging.

Sergey Salivon

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