Moscow has officially confirmed its presence at the summit “Channel four” on 9 December. This means that now the meeting of four leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France – will take place.
The path to it was long – with the resumption of the Minsk format to the exchange of prisoners, the signing of the formula of Steinmeier and withdrawal of troops. Took this process a few months.
All these steps were conditions of Moscow on the eve of the meeting. But the main condition for a long time hung in the air – is a political settlement in the Donbas. The Kremlin demanded to harmonize them before the meeting, but Kiev had resisted to the last.
And finally it happened. Ukraine has agreed the final outcome of the summit “channel four”. Which, as they say in Kremlin circles, does not go beyond the Minsk agreements. That is, I think, reiterates the basic provisions, by – elections, the special status of Donbass, Amnesty.
However, in Kiev is not very willing to say on this subject and do not hurry to admit what, in the end, agree hand.
“Country” is understood dispositions on the eve of the Norman meeting.
That made the last most important condition of the beginning of the summit – said Kiev and Moscow.
Yesterday the Minister of foreign Affairs of Ukraine Vadim pristayko said that all the negotiators have already approved a summary document. Which can be changed and expanded in the event of any breakthroughs in the negotiations.
That is, according to him, already signed a communiqué at the moment – without breaks. Further Pristayko said that too ambitious it does not put before him.
“Let’s control our expectations and not to set overly ambitious objectives, then, not finding the way of their implementation, we did not say that progress had not been achieved, and we even rolled back. This is a cautious approach which is fixed in a short communiqué. This document was written, all four parties agreed to it. This is a working document, which the foreign advisers of heads of state offer their leaders,” explained Pristayko.
In Russia confirm the signing of such a document. However, interpret it differently.
Tonight polittehnolog Alexei Chesnakov, which is surrounded by a Putin aide Vladislav Surkov, said that the final text of the statement is really agreed upon. But it may be closed to the press.
In addition, according to Chesnakov, the communiqué will not be released outside of the Minsk agreements. Therefore, Russia is satisfied with the document.
“That Moscow demanded that this be done in advance of the summit, to restrict Ukraine’s attempts to enter the negotiations beyond the Minsk agreements. Will published this text or it will be closed, the parties will decide directly in Paris,” – said Chesnakov.
According to him, “further action of the parties shall be governed by this document, which Russia was completely satisfied and she will not reconsider.”
What will happen in the final statement of the summit?
As you can see, both sides referred to the outcome document, without specifics.
But with almost a guarantee it is possible to say that the document gets the new exchange of prisoners and steps for the breeding effort. However, Ukraine itself has restricted the statement of the commander of OOS that in winter no one breed will not. But this is unlikely to prevent Zelensky to sign the next stage of breeding.
As for the main political part, here everything depends on two main issues.
The first is the law on the special status of Donbass.
Action already adopted in 2014, the law expires in 2019, and Kyiv needs either to renew the document or make a new one. If neither is done, it automatically removes Ukraine from the Minsk agreements and, in theory, paves the way for the lifting of sanctions against Russia.
Kiev after the victory of ze repeatedly declared the intention of this law to rewrite – to withdraw from there znachitelno part of the autonomy of Donbass. But judging by the fact that the preliminary communiqué signed – this is unlikely to happen. Otherwise, Russia would not heard the statement that Moscow’s position into account.
Another controversial issue in this law is its validity. Moscow insists on the indefinite nature and the inclusion of special status in the Constitution – as in the case of Crimea.
Have see many times this idea was rejected. And, most likely, at this meeting it will not be solved – max will come up with a transitional, temporary option that enables you to come close to the election.
Another question – will anyone adopt this law until the New year or at least extend it. Time have very little.
And resistance from nationalists is sure to be strong. On November 21, they collect new large-scale protest. And if it comes to the adoption of the law, they probably also will not sit at home.
The second issue is the elections in uncontrolled territories, which simultaneously introduced a special status. When they should be, in what conditions and how they will be scheduled to exhaust the troops.
Here also the positions of the parties initially mismatched and it is unclear how this problem will be solved.
Minsk still alive?
In General, we can assume that the results of the summit will be formulated in the spirit of the Minsk agreement – and no revolution in this sense, there is not expected. This has already begun to prepare the audience Vadim pristayko.
“At the moment the alternative to the Minsk agreements is not ready. But if the leaders will come and say – and we are ready for it – that this item obviously is outdated, this is not viable, let’s reformulate it, as leaders sometimes do,” said the Minister.
Here are the most important first part of the sentence – it carries the actual load. And the caveat that “you can still change the” looks like a sedative for internal use.
Moreover, the document fits within the spirit of the “Minsk-2” is already confirmed and in Moscow.
However, big breakthroughs from the summit, the four parties are not waiting. Some skepticism is heard from Europe. In Germany today, said that the Minsk agreements may not end with a political settlement in the Donbas.
Ambassador of Germany to Ukraine stated that the elections in Donbas for a long time.
“I want to emphasize that this formula can take place only when we get to the process of organizing elections when there are all conditions for this. As for me, the election is still very long and there are still other steps that need to be done,” said Anki Feldguzen.
Apparently, these steps will somehow issued in the final communiqué.
And will there be agreement?
While there is no guarantee that the parties will not eventually refuse to carry out all the agreed steps. As was the case with Poroshenko, and Zelensky, who has twice violated the terms of diversion of troops.
In the end, everything will be based on two factors.
The first is the ability and willingness Zelensky to break domestic opposition reintegration of Donbass. Simply put, the “party of war”. In this respect there are serious doubts. The President is inclined to be friends with her and soothe, rather than to quarrel. Moreover, many of its members – for example, a powerful “Soros” wing – integrated to ze team at all levels.
However, there is a second factor that may interrupt the first is the pressure of Europe. How strong it is – we’ll see at the summit of the Quartet. But the fact that ze came to this summit by the conditions of Moscow says that he was advised to do in Berlin and Paris.
What do you recommend at this time – will see 9 Dec.Vic Wenk