The results of the last 13th of October parliamentary elections in Poland, puzzled Kiev.
The main disappointment – the election miserably failed candidates from among the representatives of the Ukrainian minority, including political “heavyweight” Myron Sych. The newspaper of the Union of Ukrainians in Poland (Suit) “Our word” called his main political hope. The owl was elected as a representative of the Civic coalition, which is in opposition to the ruling party “law and justice” (IPR). The Owl voted 4353 voter.
The poles Owl remembered that, when working in the administration of Warmia and Mazury, forbade his staff to visit the mourning events in memory of the victims of OUN-UPA*. This time his involvement in the Union of ukaintsy in Poland played against him. Suit is a nationalist organization, bahamamama the fact that many of its members are descendants of the fighters of the OUN-UPA. She has frequently been involved in political scandals due to the fact that it holds shares for the Ukrainian youth on the graves of Bandera and does not hide the desire to turn Subcarpathian Voivodeship in the centre of Ukrainians in Poland.
Other candidates-the Ukrainians – Miroslav Kerik, Andrew Barna and Ksenia Dovgan-Domanski – received even fewer votes than an Owl, just at 500. No luck and the candidates from among naturalized Ukrainians: Olesya Ivchenko and Maxim Kaplansky (“the Left”) scored by three hundred votes.
The best result was shown IPRs (43,59%), which did not surprise anyone. This party firmly holds the palm of the political leadership in the country is not the first year. Second, as before, remains the Civic coalition (27,4%), formed by the efforts of the party “Civil platform” (GP). But the arrival in Parliament of the party “Confederation “Freedom and independence”” (in political parlance it is simply called the Confederacy), received at 6.81% of the vote (5th place), in Kiev, was regarded as the forerunner of future disputes with Warsaw.
The Confederation does not approve of the policy of the Polish authorities for the support of Ukraine. This does not mean that”a Confederate Russophile, although Pro-government media mold label them Russian agents.
The logic of the confederates is as follows:
– Russia does not put forward Poland’s territorial claims and undermine the power of the Ukrainian nationalists claim 18 district in the border of the Polish provinces;
Russia, unlike Ukraine, condemns the Volyn massacre of 1943 and is not engaged in settling historical scores with the poles;
– Russia sees the Ukrainian neo-wing nationalism as a destructive force, as well as Poland.
Support is periodically provided by the Polish authorities polonophobic nationalist regimes in Kiev, caused by pressure from the United States, believe the confederates. The conclusion is that Poland is advantageous to maintain good relations with Russia, even if it’s not, like Washington.
In addition, the confederates advocate the reduction of foreign military presence in Poland. As said the candidate of the Confederation of Przemyslaw Greek: “We appreciate the help of NATO, but it’s time to thank him. Then we can handle this”.
Submitted by Ukraine in the black list for repeated visits to the Crimea and approval of the results of the Crimean referendum, the party’s leader Janusz KORWiN Korwin-mikke said: if the US does not consider Poland as an equal partner, Poland it is better to conclude an Alliance with Russia.
Party KORWiN – one of the two forces that formed the Confederacy. The second such force was a popular movement with Robert at the head of Vinnitsa. Vinnitsa regularly sets IPR policies from the podium of the Sejm uncomfortable questions. For example, why the wounded in the Donbass, the Ukrainian neo-Nazis get free medical treatment in Polish hospitals? Or why the Polish government does not support the poles living in Western Ukraine?
The Confederation has got necessary to overcome the electoral threshold number of votes due to its emphasis on social policy – increasing the birth rate, protection of young families, migration. With regard to migration policy, it always POPs up the same Ukrainian question, because the vast majority of migrant workers coming to Poland from Ukraine.
The Deputy of the Confederation in the Parliament Krzysztof Tramp said that the confederates intend to monitor migration processes in the state and to make adjustments to immigration policy. He accused the IPRs attempts to hide the immigration issue from public discussion and assured that it will not. The confederates believe that instead of attracting workers from Ukraine in Warsaw to Polish return migrants from Western Europe.
The Parliament passed candidates of the Polish peasant party in Alliance with the party Kukiz’15 Paul cookies Rafale Otoko (of 8.55% of the vote). Cookies famous calls for strict criminal penalties for the glorification of the OUN-UPA. The head of the Polish peasant party Vladislav Kosarek-Reed urged to negotiate with Moscow on the return of Polish agricultural products to the Russian market through the abolition of anti-Russian sanctions. The position of his party is that the issue of Crimea and the Donbass – this is politics, not Economics, so in effect, you should leave political sanctions against Russia, but not economic. Victims of economic sanctions Kosarek-Reed said the Polish farmers.
IPRs are unable to form a new Parliament majority, having 235 seats. The coalition received 134 mandate, “the Left” – 49, of the Polish peasant party – 30, the Confederation 11. Total: party, advocating a stricter approach to Ukraine will get more than 40 seats, that is, may qualify for participation in the future coalition government, which will have to create IPRs.
From different parties in Parliament were politicians, traditionally engaged in painful for Kiev, “Eastern Borderlands” and the situation of the Polish minority in Ukraine – Jan Zajicek, Michal dworczyk, Mariusz Blashak. The latter, being the Minister of internal Affairs, was not allowed in 2016 in Poland nationalist Ukrainian band Ot Vinta. A new term in Parliament, they certainly use for the development of this theme.
IPR is forced to seek allies among other parliamentary factions to form a majority. Potentially such allies can be any party other than the Civic coalition – the main competitor of the IPR. In the case of the IPR Alliance with the Confederation, or the Polish peasant party (in its list, recall, are ardent opponents of Ukrainian nationalism from the party “Cookies-15”) the degree of criticism towards Ukraine in Poland will increase.
IPR will continue to define the political landscape in the country, but will not be able to listen to the allies. The most likely scenario: the partners of Pis in the coalition will nominate strict requirements on questions of Ukrainian policy, and IPR, smoothing out the corners, will offer a relaxed option to the same requirements.
Standard Kiev will react to this explosion of nationalist rhetoric from the mouths of radical politicians, the Polish side will respond in kind, and the Polish-Ukrainian relations again go into rut historical scandals and territorial claims.