The gas war with the Ukraine and Europe after the launch of the “Power of Siberia”

Газовая война: что будет с Украиной и Европой после запуска "Силы Сибири"

© RIA Novosti, stringerMonday, December 2, officially launched the gas pipeline “Power of Siberia”. Now in the Russian Federation in addition to Europe there is one the world’s largest consumer of gas in China. This event further exacerbated the gas issue: will January 1, Ukraine has the natural gas and transit revenues? And in this situation has to do with Europe?If a new transit contract will not be signed until the New year, Gazprom intends to stop gas transit through Ukraine on 1 January 2020. This was announced by Executive Director of the company “Naftogaz of Ukraine” Yuriy Vitrenko in an interview with Deutsche Welle.

He recalled that in the letter, which “Gazprom” sent “Naftogaz”, “black and white, January 1 at 10:00 Moscow time “Gazprom” will not be reason in order for the gas supplied to Ukraine”. In other words, “Gazprom” for the transit stop really being prepared or is ready.

“It reads as if it’s some kind of intimidation, or this message about some kind of plan,” said Executive Director of “Naftogaz”.

Who will block the valve

According to Yury Vitrenko, Ukraine “has never blocked valve” and “never stole gas.” Earlier, Ukrainian expert on energy issues, Dmitry marunich suggested that January 1, 2020 Ukraine can and itself to tighten the gas valve. According to him, this is possible with scripts, when a new contract will not, and Russia will continue to supply gas. Marunich said that the Russian side two weeks ago, did not let the specialists of “Naftogaz” on gas metering station in the Kursk region, and in “Naftogaz” in connection with this fear that Gazprom could later accuse Ukraine of stealing gas.

In such a scenario, Russia will continue to supply gas and where he will go in Ukraine. “And because… to measure something on the Russian side, “Gazprom” will say: you steal it. In a sense, it really is theft. Well, there’ll be hell with all the consequences,” — said the expert during a press conference in the framework of the special project “Ukrainian dossier” edition of the Ukraine.ru.

In addition, according to Ukrainian legislation, the gas will be smuggling, he said. “How to behave in Ukraine? Whether it will close the valve with your hand? Can she… can close,” said Marunich, adding that “this is the worst option.”Note that Yuriy Vitrenko in an interview with DW this option is rejected. According to him, if the gas will be supplied without documentation, then the valve to block the Ukraine will not. “But at the same time, Ukrainian legislation will not allow the operator of the GTS to the gas release anywhere… So he will be pumped into underground gas storage as the gas is uncertain of the owner,” he said.

Meanwhile it became known that the carrying value of the Ukrainian gas transportation system (GTS) is estimated, “Naftogaz” of $ 120 million (it turns out that in five years, TCU fell more than 200 times, from 25 billion dollars to 120 million dollars). Ukrainian political analyst Dmitry Dzhangirov in this regard, recalled the words of Viktor Chernomyrdin, who said once that “without gas the pipe is the value of the metal minus the cost of cutting minus the cost of export”. According to Dzhangirov, is now “somewhere in this, the value of its evaluated.”

The time lost?

The Ukrainian government has missed the point when it was possible to conclude with Russia a lucrative contract for gas transit, and transit can be lost. This was stated by the head of the political Council of the party “Opposition platform For life” (opsi), Deputy of the Verkhovna Rada Victor Medvedchuk during a working trip to Transcarpathia.

“Today there is hardly any mechanisms which can prevent the loss of Russian gas transit through Ukraine. Because the situation is such that we have lost the time to talk about the new transit contract too late. As the final signature must be no later than December 13, when there are applications for gas supplies to European operators”, — said Medvedchuk, whose words reports NewsOne.

According to Medvedchuk, “before this time will not have time to do anything but prolong the transit contract for the year,” but “this is the output, which is disadvantageous to Ukraine”.The politician noted that Ukraine was the best only one option — the creation of a gas consortium with participation of Ukraine, Russia and the European Union. “The Ukrainian government did, but because all other results will be negative for Ukraine. Because of the termination of gas transit to Europe, we will lose revenues to the state budget in the amount of about three billion dollars”, — said Medvedchuk.

Gas and the “channel four”

Ukraine expects that the gas issue can be addressed at the meeting of the leaders of “Norman four” in Paris on 9 December. At least the President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky this possibility does not exclude. However, how to write “Izvestia” with reference to its sources in diplomatic circles, the meeting will be devoted exclusively to the issues of conflict settlement in the Donbass, and “blur the agenda, no one is going”. At the same time, the presidents of Ukraine and Russia can discuss the issue of gas transit in a personal conversation, said another source.

Earlier head “Gazprom” Alexey Miller said there are three key conditions for the continuation of transit through Ukraine: zeroing mutual judicial claims, the definition of the regulatory contract for the transit and certainty in the volumes of gas supplies to Ukraine.Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Moscow is ready to offer Kiev a discount on gas at 25% of direct deliveries, but said the risk of termination of gas transit via Ukraine, as Naftogaz is exacerbating the situation in the negotiations with “Gazprom” of new claims.

In Kiev do not exclude the possibility of resuming direct gas supplies from Russia. However, as stated on 2 December the Minister of energy of Ukraine Alexey Orzhel, it is directly connected with payment of “Gazprom” three billion dollars “Naftogaz” according to the decision of the Stockholm arbitration.

Recall, the current contract for the transit of gas between Moscow and Kiev will expire on 31 December 2019, the parties are negotiating the continuation of transit. Ukraine is counting on a long-term contract, but Gazprom proposes the extension of the agreement only for a year.

As noted by the political scientist, columnist MIA “Russia today” Rostislav Ishchenko, if not found a compromise in the gas dispute, Kiev and Europe has garnered enough gas in its storage facilities, these reserves are sufficient to pass the winter. But what’s next? According to the expert, Ukrainian elites have been convinced, and “Gazprom” and Europe that Kiev as transit country to be relied upon. That is why, according to experts, most large European companies have invested in the construction of gas pipelines bypassing Ukraine. Against this background, Russia has been consistently reducing its dependence on European energy consumers, which striking evidence was the launch on 2 December of the pipeline “Power of Siberia”.Andrei Lubensky

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