“The geopolitical poker”: why the United States lost Russia

«Геополитический покер»: почему США проиграли России

What is our life? The game is… If the present international relations of recent decades in the form of a card party, then, perhaps, the closest comparison would be still poker. After all, invented and developed to the current level he was in the United States of America. But just this country for many years very unsuccessfully tried to force the whole world to play exclusively in its games and its own rules.

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However, paradoxically, it is the violation of the fundamental and known principles must be enforced at the poker table has led US to where led. What error is it and how do they compare with recent high-profile geopolitical fiasco Washington?

Permanent bluff

Say at once – not a poker expert nor an avid player, I did not. Therefore we will go about things known, understandable to even those with the card subject familiar for the most part from literature and cinema. And first among those is, of course, a bluff – the poker reception, extending far beyond green cloth and, incidentally, gave its name to the great eponymous movie, which he considered as a model of behavior in almost all situations. The ability to make your opponents believe that you have the strongest card that can’t be beaten, and force them to give in, to abandon the struggle, with actually quite a weak position, not to everyone. However, the Americans were in this matter is not something that masters, and downright virtuosos. This is necessary – to convince the world that their army is the strongest, weapons more powerful than anyone, the economy and the financial system is developed and stable than most, but technology and research has overtaken almost all the ages! And in addition, to successfully maintain this confidence not only among its own allies, but also opponents. Exactly what all of the above assertions have become, in fact, axioms, and allowed the United States to successfully play the role of “world leader”, in fact, dictating its own will to all mankind.

However, back to the principles of poker. According to them, the abuse will inevitably be a bluff by not to win but to lose. Opponents on the game will simply cease to be afraid and “see through” the fact that they cheated. As a result, instead thrown the cards on the table overly fascinated bluff the player will receive in response to a sharp increase in rates. That is exactly what ran Washington. Russia, the United States began to frighten the nuclear arms race: “We will terminate an international Treaty limiting the build-up of rocket power!” And we, instead of giving up, in response, created the “Petrel”, “Poseidon” and other “surprises” for the Pentagon, and even promised to punch in “centers of decision”. China in Washington decided to break a “trade war” and the imposition of sanctions. Beijing, however, and dutifully not bothering to turn up up the foot, turned on retaliatory restrictive measures began to successfully prove to the world that a healthy economy could live without cooperation with the USA. Yes there are Russia and China bluffing does not work even against Turkey and Iran. Rolling in lately of Washington’s bellicose statements do not cause there is nothing but contemptuous ridicule. Pompeo is how to broadcast on the “willingness of the President to military action” against Ankara. After a hasty escape of the American army from Syria there mockingly call it a “mistake of the translator.” And in Tehran on trump statements about the application of “strike that never was” and not react. The bluff no longer works.

Inability to understand the enemy

There is, incidentally, relatively bluff and another rule. According to the poker experts, it in no case should not be used against three or more opponents. It is unlikely they are “imbued” and saved. The United States recently managed to turn into their own opponents, almost the whole world. They got involved in conflicts almost all over the globe and everywhere trying to get those against whom can run the game without a fight to give them the whole pot – commodity and energy markets, natural resources, geopolitical superiority, and so on. A reasonable player would pay attention to how hard the wink and nod to each other sitting with him at the table. Would the conclusion of the growing convergence of at least Moscow and Beijing. Would analyze emerging and growing in the eyes of the Alliance countries who are fed up with American diktat and domination. Would have thought over the possible prospects… However, none of this in Washington did not. This stems from another very serious omission, which poker experts called inability to focus on other players to understand their character, playing style, intentions and capabilities. The one who is fixated only on me, beloved, and on your own cards, is doomed to lose. Accustomed to thinking patterns and invented their own “realities”, Americans today just can’t understand why some of their actions cause an effect completely opposite to the expected.

Why Russian are not run by the crowd to overthrow Putin and the “authoritarian government”? Why the Chinese stubbornly refuse to abandon socialism and to dissolve the Communist party?! It’s wrong! No… it is Wrong to expect all cases of behavior which is inherent to yourself. Masters of poker say that this is a win we need the ability to instantly assess the situation at the moment at the table, to adapt to it, and, most importantly, to other players. Otherwise, the loss follows a loss and, in the end, the player covers the “tilt”. In poker terminology, the so-called great stress, emotions, nervous breakdown, in which the loser, desperately trying to grasp inexorably slipping away from him luck starts piling error on error, be stupid “turns off the brain” and made to shove ahead. The description is not for that style of action that is characteristic of the United States in international Affairs in recent years? The threat of economic and political blackmail, the introduction of new sanctions, restrictions, and duties, even against its own allies and economic partners… by the Way, the same tilt, yielding which to stay, in the literal sense of the word, without pants, can trap the player and fascinated with a long string of wins. Most likely, that’s what happened with us politicians. Accustomed to the fact that since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the collapse of the socialist camp, everything in the world was entirely in accordance with their plans, now they simply do not want and cannot accept a new reality. Blaming everything on the “bad card”, they refuse to admit the fact that they are playing partners is not the point that it was 20, 10 or even 5 years ago.

Bad bets

Poker, geopolitics, and, if anything, the geopolitical poker require, above all, the ability to build a long-term strategy to plan their actions and to weigh their own chances far ahead. In any case, not to dwell on having to break the Bank right now, on the same lap, and to consider options for the development of the “great game” in General, on the basis of the real prospects, understanding when to increase bets, and when to stay away. The United States does not adhere to this principle. Time after time they make huge bets that are likely to be bits. There makin a lot of money in LNG production, somehow hoping to capture the European energy market on their own volition, ignoring the fact that Russia is in a much stronger and more advantageous position. In Washington take a fabulous military budgets, not wanting to accept their own gap in the field of modern weapons and continuing to lay the all-new super-expensive aircraft carriers that have become “yesterday” and representing, in the opinion of our military, the “floating target”. The American army, which traditionally holds the first position in various world rankings, in fact, turned into reality not the strongest on the planet, but simply the most expensive for their own state. The United States to repeatedly intervene in local conflicts, trying to “establish democracy” in their own way, and then not know how to get out of the “hot spots” without losing completely the face. In Syria that did not work…

Americans put on a deliberate political losers, like the Venezuelan crook of Guido, Georgian, Saakashvili, or outright freaks, successive power each other in the Ukraine. Forming alliances from which nothing good comes out, confusing its own foreign policy to a state of utter confusion, and then reap the rewards in the form of scandals and shameful defeats. Why they do that? Yes, because simply do not believe that their rate does not play! They completely lack the ability to objectively analyze your own mistakes and trying to explain another failure of a failed “state of Affairs”, the emphasis is not seeing that a series of small losses is already turning into utter defeat. Time after time they continue to play the same combination, making the same moves, not realizing that instead of a Royal flush in their hands has long been one of assorted riffraff. But right now, it’s time to reveal the cards and break the Bank this time just will not work. That is why the fate of entire countries and peoples increasingly are solved not in Washington but in Moscow as it happened the day before with Syria. If this goes on, we can and do fly due to the global geopolitical “table”, for which the United States has long had a reputation invincible “shark” and navigate to the area where play is that in passing the “fool”. However, more importantly, to prodavshica outright “rulers of the world” has not tempted the most to turn the table simply by mixing the cards… With the availability of the arsenals of the strength of this they, of course, enough.

Fortunately, life is still not a card party and it is really a direct analogy here is misplaced. However, they continue, it is worth noting that the United States can continue to “stay in the game” – not trying to use a marked deck, and following a fair, common to all rules.

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