The Maidan will disperse, war remains. The main results of the Normandy meeting, Ukraine

Майдан разойдется, война остается. Главные итоги Нормандской встречи для Украины

The meeting Channel four. Photo – site of the KremlinToday in Paris summit “Channel four”, which in Kiev were as close as could.

For Vladimir Zelensky this idea before was not very clear – too many questions were supposed to solve. And today only confirmed that impudence “to take Moscow” has failed.

It is unclear, however, what was based on the hypothesis that Russia will agree to drop the Minsk agreements and give Zelensky that he did not give Poroshenko. That is, the border army “republics” and his other assets in the Donbass. But the fact remains that the parties have not resolved any conceptual question. One that would change the situation in the Donbass.

Achieved the following: the exchange of prisoners before the end of the year and withdrawal of troops at three new sites until March. And the political part have agreed to amend the formula Steinmeier in the law on the special status (and it looks option Advisory).

And after four months decided to meet again. That’s basically all that is recorded in the final communiqué. Nothing that the parties could not discuss the less pathetic of the trilateral contact group in Minsk. The same disengagement is logical to discuss in the Channel format for the frontline, not three relatively quiet sites near Golden and Petrovsky (this “sweep” was more characteristic of the era of Poroshenko).

However, there is an important symbolic things written in the communique. This commitment to the Minsk agreements, without any exceptions or redactor. How much would Zelensky not criticized these agreements, but the position of Paris and Berlin in this sense were closer to Moscow.

The declarative item may be a promise of a full ceasefire until the end of 2019 through the strengthening of the OSCE mission.

In fact, to ensure that no fire could only total divorce of the troops, and he failed to reach an agreement (and, as recognized by Avakov, this was the position of the Ukrainian side, which considered that the withdrawal of troops “unfavorable”).

And if so, then it is, in fact, means the continuation of indiscriminate shelling, which may be a bit less, but is unlikely to fall to zero.

Not to say that such a result was not predictable in advance. Because the positions of the parties were diametrically opposite. Although it was a reasonable compromise. But probably it curved back on itself under the influence of any force from the internal “war party” to the outer.

In the end, what failed to solve, outweighs the modest achievements of today’s summit:

1. To coordinate the procedure for holding elections and transferring control of the border (before or after the election).

2. Agree on vision special status as such.

3. To coordinate the breeding of troops across the front line.

Three of these points translated into simple language means – the war continues because no political settlement, and the army will continue to stand (and shoot) opposite each other.

And itself “the formula Steinmeier” (that is, the holding of elections followed by the granting of special status to the Donbass) without understanding how exactly to hold these elections, will not work.

Surprisingly, the resolution of this summit greatly resembles a previous decision – in the fall of 2016, which was attended by Poroshenko.

Then, too, “agreed to agree”. Given a period of 2 months to prepare the road map, but nothing happened. And themselves the “Quartet” had ceased to meet because of the senselessness.

Also, it is likely, given the difference in approaches will be now.

A separate question on gas. That said Zelensky and top managers of the NAC, we can conclude that the negotiations are very tight. And specific agreements yet. That is, the risk of termination of transit since January 1 remains. Although the chances of a compromise are still higher than in the Donbass – the question of money and need to solve quickly. Yes, and Zelensky emphasizes that progress in the negotiations there.

There is an option that the agreement on gas has decided not to voice it today, so, first, do not associate them with the President. Second, do not give another reason for statements about zrade in Kiev.

It is not excluded that we will also try to explain the modest progress on Donbass. They say that this is a “cunning plan Zelensky” that, well, he just doesn’t want to reveal the card. And in fact, already agreed on everything.

But, it seems that the whole cunning plan is that the nationalists have gone out of the Windows of the President’s Office on Bankova. That they were, in many respects, designed performance Zelensky at a press conference, and leaks from Avakov and other participants of the meeting that no zrady was not.

And the nationalists plan to work. They leave. While leave.

But the war continues.


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