In all British political polls at the moment the usual Ipsos-MORI political monitor stands out because he is practically the only one still conducting field work by telephone.
Typically, your findings match those of online pollsters, but this time they don’t. His voting figures are CON 40%, LAB 31% and LDs at 13%, the latter being by far the highest for Davey’s party.
For a survey watcher like myself, what the firm stands out is the way it presents its data and the fact that it gives us numbers based on educational level. In the US, this is almost always a key indicator, but Ipsos in the UK records it.
The chart above shows Johnson’s latest base of satisfaction ratings for the company on educational attainment, giving us insight not seen in other surveys on a key dynamic in British politics.
General elections, of course, are contested in 650 separate electoral contests under the first step of the post, so knowing the educational profile in each seat becomes central. This was one of the reasons why he was so confident in tipping LD Chesham and Amersham in last month’s by-elections, when for much of the campaign bettors rated the match with a 5% chance.
To check this seat by seat, this is a good page to marker.